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000
FXUS62 KILM 140428
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1128 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger along the coast, while weak low
pressure moves up the Carolina coasts overnight. Periods of
rain, possibly heavy at times Thursday, will be followed by
drier and cooler weather into the weekend. A cold front will
cross the coast Monday night, bringing a surge of cooler air
next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1128 PM Tuesday...No notable modifications were needed
for the late evening updates, pcpn patchy and light in nature
overnight, with rainfall accumulations minimal to none.

As of 3 PM Tuesday...Weak front stalled along the
coast this afternoon will be joined by a stronger cold front
this evening and overnight. The second front will also end up
stalling offshore overnight as the mid-level patten evolves.
Flow aloft increases tonight and becomes boundary parallel as
trough moving into NE TX starts to close off. This 5h low will
be slow to track east across the lower MS Valley on Wed.
Overnight, southwest flow aloft will gradually increase while at
the low levels surface high starts building in from the
northwest. Isentropic lift gradually increases overnight but not
expecting a lot of measurable rain overnight, instead think
drizzle and mist are more likely. Cold advection will drop
overnight temps into the mid 40s for most areas as the wedge
sets up.

Fronts remain stacked up off the coast overnight into Wed
(eventually becoming a single entity). All indication are the wedge
will hold on into Wed evening as the 5h low develops a surface wave
into a closed low over the NE Gulf of Mexico or central FL. The low
starts moving northeast, along the coast as the period ends.
Isentropic lift continues slowly increasing tomorrow into tomorrow
evening and forecast soundings suggest at least some rain/showers
around during the day. Precip coverage is likely to be limited by
the relatively weak nature of the lift and periods of both mid and
low level dry air. Clouds and continued northeast flow/cold
advection will keep highs below climo Wed, although along the coast
timing the onshore movement of the front will be tricky. Inland
areas will stay in the upper 40s to around 50 but along the
immediate coast there exists potential for late day highs into the
60s, if the front moves onshore early. Current forecast does not
call for this to happen, but the potential, while low, is there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...A closed mid/upper-level low will lift
up and across the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys
through the period. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will
surge northward across the Carolinas ahead of this feature.
Upper-level diffluence will enhance lift primarily on the west
side of the surface front to produce widespread rainfall
Wednesday night into Thursday. Current QPF projections are for
areal average of 1-1.5" inches of rain over most of the
forecast area during the period. The quasi-stationary frontal
boundary will waver along the coast as a surface low rides up
the coastline Wednesday night, and depending on exact timing and
location, portions of coastal counties may experience a predawn
surge in temps before the low moves north and winds become
northwest. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast on
Thursday, with high temperatures ranging from around 50 inland
to the 60s at the beaches. Again, depending on exact location of
the front Thursday morning, the high temperatures along the
coast may be realized in the early morning. The atmospheric column
will dry out rather abruptly Thursday afternoon above 850 mb,
but lingering low-level moisture is expected to result in some low
cloudiness hanging on well into Thursday night, before beginning
to clear west to east before dawn Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft will usher surface high
pressure from the Gulf coast states into the area Friday-
Saturday. Sunday into Monday, the high will slide off to the
northeast as a trough digs across the Great Lakes and into the
Mid-Atlantic region. High temps by Sunday and Monday should
reach the low-mid 60s before a cooler airmass arrives Monday
night, setting the stage for highs in the mid-upper 50s for
Tuesday. See no significant chance for precipitation during the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00z...Moderate to high confidence IFR will persist at
KFLO/KLBT  this TAF valid period. LIFR may become less likely
overnight and Wednesday morning at KFLO/KLBT, but should return
late in the TAF period. IFR will be likely at KCRE/KMYR this TAF
period. KILM will have periods of IFR but should remain MVFR
for the most part after 08Z.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR continuing through Wed and Thurs
as another low pressure system lifts across the Southeast
through  mid week, leaving unsettled weather. Drier, VFR
conditions Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Once SCA comes to an end but another has been
issued for the overnight through Wed night period. Following passage
of second cold front this evening (which will also stall just east
of the waters) cold advection and pinched gradient will conspire to
increase wind speeds to 20 to 25 kt by Wed morning. Prior to winds
exceeding 25 kt seas will build as northerly flow kicks up, with
seas at or above 6 ft by daybreak. Winds and seas will remains above
SCA thresholds through the end of the period. May see a few gusts
approaching gale force but at this point it looks like gale force
winds will occur north of the area, where water temps are a little
warmer and the gradient is a little more defined. However, cannot
rule out upgrade to Gale Warning with a later issuance.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Northeast flow will be ongoing Wednesday
evening, with a surface wedge of high pressure inland and a weak
low riding up the South Carolina coast. Solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions will be in place. Winds will shift in the
predawn hours Thursday morning as the low crosses the waters,
becoming W-NW by 18Z, and rain will taper off during the
afternoon. Mixing down of higher wind speeds on Thursday will
yield gusts to 30 knots, which look to persist through most of
Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will build over the waters
through the period. It will take a little while for winds/seas
to drop below Small Craft Advisory thresholds, but this should
happen by early Friday afternoon. NW winds Friday will become
more northerly Saturday and Sunday, and the pressure gradient
will weaken as the high settles just north of the waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CRM/8
NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR/SHK