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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 121449 AAA
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
949 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will move across the area today and this evening with an
arctic cold front. Cold high pressure will build in Wednesday
followed by increasing moisture with developing low pressure
offshore. This system will bring an extended period of rain,
wind and cool temperatures. Conditions will improve early next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Another update to raise temps near the coast again! At 945 it`s
72 degrees at ILM. I`m also seeing 70s showing up on the
mesonet obs across New Hanover, Brunswick, and Georgetown
counties. These mild readings won`t last long however.

8 AM temperatures across the area are pretty close to forecast
highs, and with the leading edge of the cold advection still a
hundred miles west of Florence I`ve raised forecast highs by 3-5
degrees area-wide. This gives lower 60s along the I-95 corridor
and 70 for Wilmington. Temperatures are still expected to crash
through the 40s as the arctic air arrives this afternoon. Based
on radar and 06z model QPF I`ve delayed the arrival of rain by
a couple of hours east of I-95 as well. No other significant
changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concerns for the next 36 hours is the approach of a strong cold
front that will bring short periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
for the Tuesday morning and afternoon commutes, along with sub-
freezing temperatures Wednesday morning.

Strong cold front is still on track to push through the region later
today.  First half of the day will be seasonable with highs for the
day occurring sometime late this morning or during the early
afternoon before the cold air push.  Temperatures will steadily drop
through the day with upper 40s shortly after lunchtime along the I-
95 corridor and freezing temperatures overnight into Wednesday
morning.  The the first freeze has already occurred for most of the
area, any sensitive crops or plants will need to be protected from
the cold tonight.  Rain, heavy at times, could affect the morning
and afternoon commutes for Tuesday.  Cold air pushes in aloft as the
front moves toward the coast, and a few falling snow flakes cannot
be ruled out on the back edge of the precipitation area.

Much colder temperatures expected for Wednesday as cold high
pressure settles into the area.  Afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s is between 15 and 20 degrees below normal for mid November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast will feature quick changes as global
guidance has come into better agreement on low pressure moving
just offshore moreso for the extended forecast. Thursday morning
will start out with mostly below freezing temperatures again
followed quickly by increasing cloud cover and even a chance of
rain overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. This as
isentropic lift begins with the developing storm system.
Rainfall amounts will be light for this period as it will take
some time for the lower levels to saturate. HIghs Thursday will
recover nicely from the sub freezing temperatures in the morning
for most areas into the 50s. Not much decrease for Friday`s
lows with the increasing moisture with readings dropping into
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Global guidance has come into better agreement this morning
with the low pressure system moving up near the coast for the
weekend. The GFS has trended more to the ECMWF with a closed low
moving across the southeast with the surface low moving up
somewhat southeast of Cape Fear. The system appears to be more
progressive this morning via both models as a kicker system well
to the west keeps things moving even with a closed low. Overall
expect Friday through about Sunday or so to be quiet miserable
with rain and windy conditions. Still difficult to say how much
rain we get as the GFS shows 48 hour total QPF of 2-3 inches but
this is usually a bit on the high side. Many times the heavier
rainfall has difficulty making inroads inland. Still mid level
frontogenesis could do the trick. I trended Sunday and Monday a
bit drier due to the aforementioned progressive nature of the
system. Temperatures have once again cooled due to the moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions ahead of the front this morning with westerly winds
becoming northwesterly. As the cold front approaches, showers will
develop ahead of the main line as sub-VFR conditions begin due
to lowering ceilings and obstructed VIS within rain showers.
Main shield of precip will move west to east across the area
with IFR conditions developing this afternoon. Sub-VFR
conditions will end at all terminals before midnight. Winds will
become northerly and maintain 15-20 knots with gusts between
20-30 during and after the frontal passage.

Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible at times Tuesday due to
another cold front passage, becoming VFR Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong cold front will bring gale conditions offshore with a strong
wind shift from the south to the northwest between 25 and 35 kts
with higher gusts possible.  Wave heights out to 20 NM could reach
in excess of 10 feet, but between the coastline and 10 NM should be
between 4 and 6 feet.  Cold frontal passage will bring chances for
thunderstorms offshore with locally higher winds and waves within.
Precipitation should end by Wednesday morning with much cooler
temperatures offshore and improving sea conditions.

Winds and seas will be somewhat tranquil for Thursday into early
Friday as arctic high pressure will be modifying and the axis
moving off. Expect a northeast flow of 10 knots or so with seas
of 2- 4 feet. Conditions go down dramatically for basically the
remainder of the period as low pressure develops and moves
offshore. Expect a prolonged period of small craft conditions
and with possible gales easing off early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ054>056-
     058.
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ106>110.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA/MCK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MCK/SHK