Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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273 FXUS62 KILM 232327 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 627 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will continue through tonight with increasing chance of showers. Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany a cold front that will cross the area Thursday morning. Dry high pressure will build in behind the front Thursday afternoon into the weekend. The high will shift south of the area early next week. Temperatures near to slightly below normal into the weekend will start warming early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 PM Wednesday...The FA is now well into the warm sector well ahead of the strong eastward moving cold front that will be working its way across the windward side of the Appalachian mountains early this evening. Various model soundings illustrate moisture availability remains at or below 800 mb which at this juncture is primarily involving Atlantic Ocean Moisture. As a result, have continued in carrying a low chance for light rainshowers late this aftn and well into this evening. As the mid-level s/w trof continues it`s progression eastward, it taps plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture and carry it northward. Model trends have been narrowing the highest moisture content of the atm for this event, including Gulf and Atlantic combined moisture, to occur prior to sunrise Thu thru midday Thu. Models indicate Peak progged PWS of 1.5 inches and excellent low level wind shear, both speed and directional changes during this 6 to 9 hr time-line. However, instability is lacking which is usual for this time of the year, ie. low Cape and high shear. With 50 kt winds progged at just 800 feet off the sfc, a well mixed moderate to strong shower could produced a strong sfc wind gust with thunder lacking. Will however, indicate isolated/low chance for thunder during the 6 to 9 hr peak of pcpn occurrence. Temperatures will be running 3 to 4 categories above normal which will make it seem even warmer given the brief Arctic temperatures experienced from Sun night thru late last night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front Thurs night through Fri night. A very broad mid to upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS though with high getting suppressed a bit further south heading into the weekend. This leaves a generally drier and cooler air mass over the area. Temps will drop a good 30 degrees Thurs night with temps down into the mid 30s by daybreak. The 850 temps drop out from near 12c Thurs aftn down to -5 by Fri night. This CAA will keep daytime highs below normal for Fri with most places closer to 50 most of the aftn. Fri night will have a better shot at more decent radiational cooling as winds lighten with mainly clear skies. Temps should drop down below freezing most places. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A very broad mid to upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS. This will maintain more of a progressive flow in the northern stream, while sfc high pressure will remained sprawled across the deep south over the weekend, migrating closer overhead by Monday. Overall expect dry weather through the weekend into early next week with a good deal of sunshine. Temps will be just on the cool side through the weekend, but will begin to warm through early next week. Models continue to show low pressure riding up off the Southeast coast early next week, but may be too far away to produce any weather. The next appreciable chc of rain will most likely come during the middle of next week as a cold front reaches the area late Tues into Wed. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...A warm front has stalled just west of the CWA in the Piedmont of NC. This warm front will continue to move northward before occlusion takes place as the low pressure system crosses the Blue Ridge Mountains. Additionally, a fetch of low-level moisture extending from CHS to CLT is where scattered MVFR CIGs and showers continue to advect inland. This fetch of moisture will move with the warm front, northward and inland. Overnight, we could see a few showers ahead of the main line of precipitation at the coastal terminals around 06Z. Strong low-level winds will intensify and introduce a chance of wind shear for all terminals as the low-level jet maximum crosses the area between 12Z-16Z. Expect VFR CIGs ahead of the line of showers with a few areas of brief MVFR. As the line approaches, CIGs will remain in the 1k-3k ft range with heavy showers and a couple rumbles of thunder. At this time, we do not expect enough TS to include in the TAF due to lack of instability. Winds will remain gusty and from the south; becoming southwesterly as the line approaches. With the line of showers passing between 09Z- 16Z, there could be some areas of IFR. Skies will begin to clear in the wake of the front as westerly winds develop, bringing drier and much cooler air. Extended Outlook...Becoming VFR by Thursday night. Predominately VFR Friday through Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM Wednesday...Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters. The sfc pg will continue to tighten well ahead of the eastward progression of the strong cold front now located on the windward side of the Appalachian Mountain chain. By daybreak Thu, the north-south oriented cold front will be located along the I-95 corridor. The tightened sfc pg will peak Thu morning just prior to the cfp. After Fropa, models quickly relax the sfc pg during Thu aftn. The CAA will not nearly be as intense like what occurred Sun into Sun night due to the CAA involved is NOT of Arctic origin. Winds will drop thru SCA Thu aftn and continue trending lower Thu night. Significant seas will primarily be short period dominated, ie. wind driven waves, with no long period ground swell really involved. Seas will peak in the 6 to 11 foot range with the highest seas off Cape Fear and Romaine respectively with the shallow shoals helping with heights. "Victory at sea conditions" will help describe the rather chaotic seas due to wind direction changes during the next 24 hrs. From the pre-dawn Thu hrs thru midday Thu, expect the best chances to see widespread showers with embedded tstorms. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front. Winds and seas will remain elevated with SCA through Thurs night in NW to N winds up to 15 to 20 kts initially. By Fri morning, seas will diminish in off shore flow and will continue on a downward trend through Fri. Expect lighter northerly winds Fri aftn through Fri night with seas down under 4 ft. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure sprawled across the deep South over the weekend will shift closer overhead and then off the Southeast coast by Sun night. This will generally maintain a light off shore flow 5 to 10 kts most of the time and seas less than 3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21

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