Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 251927 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 327 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Zeta will move up the Appalachians Thursday, and a cold front will sweep across the area early Friday. High pressure will build in over the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Expect showers to linger over the area through about 7 PM. Residual low level moisture will likely result in abundant low clouds tonight. Fair weather with less clouds is expected Monday and Monday night as weak high pressure settles into the area. Lows tonight will fall to the mid 50s to around 60 with lows Monday night expected to bottom in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs Monday will reach the low to mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid/upper ridging will hold on off the southeast US coast through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, this ridge will transition eastward as Tropical Cyclone Zeta opens up and lifts across AL and northern GA. Weak surface high pressure over eastern NC will produce a light northeast breeze Tuesday, veering to the south and increasing Wednesday night with warm FROPA as Zeta remnants approach the southern Appalachians. Will also see an increase in shower potential from south to north beginning Wednesday and continuing Wednesday night, although activity should be scattered at most.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep southwest flow will result in temps 5-7 degrees above climo on Thursday with most areas reaching around 80. Closed 500 mb low will traverse TN Thursday night, and it, along with its surface reflection will move rapidly off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday, and drag a cold front across the forecast area. Rain chances will peak Thursday night into Friday morning, then fall off rapidly Friday afternoon based on GFS/ECMWF consensus. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with a surface wedge across the interior Carolinas and a weak surface trough just offshore.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Intermittent light to moderate rain will slowly taper off this afternoon. Ceilings will lift temporarily by late afternoon. Tonight, looks like the IFR ceilings will return around midnight, lasting well into the daytime hours on Monday. Extended Outlook...Looking at mainly VFR Mon through Wed with possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning hrs each day from ground fog and/or low stratus. For late Wed thru Thu, expect a CFP followed by weak high pressure. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Today through Monday...Expect N to NE winds of 15 KT or less with seas of 2 to 3 FT. Monday through Friday...Weak high pressure over eastern NC will yield northeast flow across the waters, however the gradient will be weak, with wind speeds on the order of 10 kt or less. Direction will veer to the east Tuesday night and Wednesday, with speeds on the order of 10-15 kts. The gradient will strengthen Wednesday night and Thursday as the remnants of TC Zeta move up the southern Appalachians, and winds will swing to the south and increase to 20 kts. Will also see potential for scattered showers increasing late Wednesday and Wednesday night, although the most significant rains will remain well inland. Seas will start off around 2 ft Tuesday, building to 3 ft Wednesday, and to 5-6 ft by Thursday afternoon in strong SW flow. Small craft advisory seas are expected to persist into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...43 MARINE...CRM/31

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.