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000
FXUS62 KILM 011604
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1204 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather is expected today and tonight as high
pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Temperatures will begin
to warm and humidity will increase by midweek through the end of
the week as high pressure settles far off the Southeast United
States coast. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will
return later in the week as the weather pattern becomes a
little more unsettled.

&&

.UPDATE...
No updates to the current forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Break from heavy rainfall continues today and Tuesday with
mostly sunny skies, and cooler than normal temperatures for June
1st.

Today officially begins hurricane season after a early tropical
May flurry, and the southern Gulf swirl should remain well
south of the area through at least mid-week.

Elevated RH at 850 millibars may bring a few 5-6 kft clouds
today through Tuesday, as the moisture remains captured below a
temperature inversion. Max-T Tuesday 2-4 deg F warmer than
today. Expect a few NE gusts to 20 mph along the coast early
this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H5 heights will build slightly Tuesday night into Wednesday as
a ridge axis moves across the region. This axis will remain in
control through Wednesday night but will begin shifting toward
the east. As a result, the higher precipitable water values and
bulk of the unsettled weather will remain well S and W of the
forecast during the short term period. Above normal temperatures
are on tap during Wednesday as southwesterly flow takes root
with a developing surface trough across the western Carolinas
and with high pressure situated far off the SC/GA coasts. Warm
southwesterly flow Wednesday night will hold lows a few degrees
above normal as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convective chances will increase by Friday as a weakness,
between a large upper ridge over Northern Mexico/West Texas and
a ridge far off the Southeast United States, settles across the
Carolinas into the central Gulf coast region. However, a dry
H85-5 layer may prove to be an inhibiting factor for convection
during much of Thursday. The column will eventually begin to
moisten with precipitable water values surging to around 2
inches Thursday night. The chance for showers/tstms will persist
into Saturday as well with an inland trough providing focus,
and likely an active sea breeze front. Potential for a Gulf low
this weekend as mid/upper high moves into the Central Plains/MS
Valley. The position of the ridge could direct NW flow impulses
into the Carolinas during Sunday. Big question mark during that
time frame will be moisture availability - which models
struggle with in this regime - thus bears watching. MEX numbers
are reasonable with lows mainly above normal and highs near or
above normal each period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered over Ohio will give us northeast flow today,
becoming easterly this afternoon. Some scattered stratocu possible
today, otherwise nearly cloud free. Light winds tonight with some
possible ground fog after midnight. Tuesday, high pressure shifts
east, giving us southwest flow and warmer temps.

Extended Outlook...The dry atmosphere will support VFR flight
conditions through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday:
Gusty NE winds early to maintain advisory flags through
daybreak, but winds will ease today, and by afternoon flags to
lower. SW winds will increase Tuesday afternoon onward, as a
Piedmont pressure trough interacts with high pressure offshore.
This may bring 25 kt gusts late Tuesday, and an advisory may be
needed for gusty SW winds. Dry this period so no TSTMs expected.
Subsiding NE wind-seas today, mixed with ESE swell, SW wind-
waves to increase Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday:
A southwesterly fetch will continue to develop with the
strongest winds generally north of Cape Fear Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The pressure gradient between a trough across the
western Carolinas and high pressure far off the SC/GA coast may
support marginal Small Craft thresholds by Wednesday afternoon.
While a southwesterly fetch will be in place Thursday through
Saturday speeds are expected to be a notch lower as the trough
drifts toward the coast. Regardless, this fetch will create
choppy sea conditions which could be locally enhanced by
increasing chances of convection, especially toward the end of
the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/SRP