Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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517 FXUS62 KILM 201945 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 345 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High and Piedmont trough setup will continue through Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. A cold front move into the area Friday night, stalling in the area into next week. Showers and thunderstorms this weekend will continue into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Typical summer-time conditions over the near term period, with isolated to widely scattered aftn/evening shras/tstms and near normal temps. An area of rain currently tracking through the mid section of the fa will move off to the NE over the next few hours, but coverage is quite limited attm, with the bulk of the activity expected to stay west of the fa closer to an upper-level low. Chances of rain diminish later this evening, with a slight uptick of PoPs then for Wednesday morning as a mid-level vort max nears the region. Low temps tonight range through the 70s. A Piedmont trough and weakly forcing environment again then for Wednesday, with PoPs capped at 35% all areas. No severe weather or flooding anticipated. High temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s. Typical nocturnal decrease of precip then into Wednesday night, with low temps again in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weakening mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and Bermuda High will maintain deep west-southwest flow which will continue pumping Gulf moisture into the region. Deep moisture, diurnal instability and the Piedmont trough/sea breeze will produce afternoon/evening convection each day. Not a lot of mid-level support as far as any impressive shortwaves go, but cannot rule out some brief enhancement from passage of a weak feature. However, timing and picking out these features is difficult at best. Convection coverage increases Fri as Piedmont trough is pushed to the coast by approaching cold front. Front slowly moves into the area Fri night which may keep convection going all night. Coverage and intensity is likely to decrease a bit, but high chance pop at minimum is likely warranted. High will be near to slightly above climo with lows running above climo. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Front moving into the area Fri night ends up stalling in the area on Sat. Guidance is hinting that the front could push south Sun into Mon, but also shows mid-level ridging to the west and over the Bahamas. The mid-level pattern coupled with weak high pressure over the Northeast suggests the front may end up lingering in the area into next week. Thus confidence beyond Sun is rather low. -Stalled front will support multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Sat and Sun. -Potential for extended periods of heavy rain leading to isolated urban flooding over the weekend. -Low confidence early next week with potential for good coverage of storms Mon and Tue. -Highs several degrees below climo this weekend moving closer to climo Mon and Tue. Lows near climo through Tue. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Predominantly VFR with high pressure center to our east. Scattered to broken high clouds throughout TAF period being advected from the SW, with scattered cumulus clouds in the afternoons and possibly overnight at inland sites. Isolated storms this afternoon and evening, mainly inland and along sea breeze boundary. Shortwave to our SW will move NW of the area tonight into tomorrow morning, and so there is a slight chance of showers, mainly inland, after midnight. Cloud cover and elevated boundary layer winds overnight should hinder fog development, despite adequate low level moisture. South-southwest winds between 5 and 10 kts during daytime hours, and around 3 kts overnight. Extended...Mainly VFR thru Thu with brief MVFR/IFR periods each day due to aftn/evening convection and fog and/or stratus around daybreak. A cold front will drop south and stall across the region Fri thru Sat. This will lead to an increase in tsra coverage with MVFR/IFR conditions possible at any time of the day or night. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through mid week with high pressure offshore and a typical Piedmont trough inland. Expect S/SW winds of 10-15 kt, except 15-20 kt winds Wednesday evening as the pressure gradient tightens up a bit. Seas 2-3 ft through Wednesday, then 3-4 ft for Wednesday night. This will mainly consist of a 4 second S/SW 2-3 ft wind wave and a 10 second SE 1-2 ft swell. Bermuda High will linger off the coast into Sat, maintaining 10 to 15 kt southwest flow. Speeds will be highest in the afternoon and evening. A slow moving cold front drops into the area early Sat before stalling in the region through the weekend. Speeds drop below 10 kt Sat and remain under 10 kt into Sun morning with highly variable direction. Mixed signals for Sun, right now forecast has northeast flow around 10 kt developing, but this assumes the front pushes south of the waters. The front could end up lingering in the area into the middle of next week. If this happens, winds Sun would be lighter with highly variable direction. Seas 3 to 4 ft Thu and Fri drop to 2 ft or less over the weekend as winds drop below 10 kt. South to southwest wind wave around 5 seconds will be the dominant feature but some weak southeast swell around 10 seconds will also be present. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...VAO MARINE...III/MAS

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