Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140428 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1128 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will linger along the coast, while weak low pressure moves up the Carolina coasts overnight. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times Thursday, will be followed by drier and cooler weather into the weekend. A cold front will cross the coast Monday night, bringing a surge of cooler air next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1128 PM Tuesday...No notable modifications were needed for the late evening updates, pcpn patchy and light in nature overnight, with rainfall accumulations minimal to none. As of 3 PM Tuesday...Weak front stalled along the coast this afternoon will be joined by a stronger cold front this evening and overnight. The second front will also end up stalling offshore overnight as the mid-level patten evolves. Flow aloft increases tonight and becomes boundary parallel as trough moving into NE TX starts to close off. This 5h low will be slow to track east across the lower MS Valley on Wed. Overnight, southwest flow aloft will gradually increase while at the low levels surface high starts building in from the northwest. Isentropic lift gradually increases overnight but not expecting a lot of measurable rain overnight, instead think drizzle and mist are more likely. Cold advection will drop overnight temps into the mid 40s for most areas as the wedge sets up. Fronts remain stacked up off the coast overnight into Wed (eventually becoming a single entity). All indication are the wedge will hold on into Wed evening as the 5h low develops a surface wave into a closed low over the NE Gulf of Mexico or central FL. The low starts moving northeast, along the coast as the period ends. Isentropic lift continues slowly increasing tomorrow into tomorrow evening and forecast soundings suggest at least some rain/showers around during the day. Precip coverage is likely to be limited by the relatively weak nature of the lift and periods of both mid and low level dry air. Clouds and continued northeast flow/cold advection will keep highs below climo Wed, although along the coast timing the onshore movement of the front will be tricky. Inland areas will stay in the upper 40s to around 50 but along the immediate coast there exists potential for late day highs into the 60s, if the front moves onshore early. Current forecast does not call for this to happen, but the potential, while low, is there. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A closed mid/upper-level low will lift up and across the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys through the period. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northward across the Carolinas ahead of this feature. Upper-level diffluence will enhance lift primarily on the west side of the surface front to produce widespread rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. Current QPF projections are for areal average of 1-1.5" inches of rain over most of the forecast area during the period. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will waver along the coast as a surface low rides up the coastline Wednesday night, and depending on exact timing and location, portions of coastal counties may experience a predawn surge in temps before the low moves north and winds become northwest. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast on Thursday, with high temperatures ranging from around 50 inland to the 60s at the beaches. Again, depending on exact location of the front Thursday morning, the high temperatures along the coast may be realized in the early morning. The atmospheric column will dry out rather abruptly Thursday afternoon above 850 mb, but lingering low-level moisture is expected to result in some low cloudiness hanging on well into Thursday night, before beginning to clear west to east before dawn Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft will usher surface high pressure from the Gulf coast states into the area Friday- Saturday. Sunday into Monday, the high will slide off to the northeast as a trough digs across the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic region. High temps by Sunday and Monday should reach the low-mid 60s before a cooler airmass arrives Monday night, setting the stage for highs in the mid-upper 50s for Tuesday. See no significant chance for precipitation during the period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00z...Moderate to high confidence IFR will persist at KFLO/KLBT this TAF valid period. LIFR may become less likely overnight and Wednesday morning at KFLO/KLBT, but should return late in the TAF period. IFR will be likely at KCRE/KMYR this TAF period. KILM will have periods of IFR but should remain MVFR for the most part after 08Z. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR continuing through Wed and Thurs as another low pressure system lifts across the Southeast through mid week, leaving unsettled weather. Drier, VFR conditions Friday into the weekend. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Once SCA comes to an end but another has been issued for the overnight through Wed night period. Following passage of second cold front this evening (which will also stall just east of the waters) cold advection and pinched gradient will conspire to increase wind speeds to 20 to 25 kt by Wed morning. Prior to winds exceeding 25 kt seas will build as northerly flow kicks up, with seas at or above 6 ft by daybreak. Winds and seas will remains above SCA thresholds through the end of the period. May see a few gusts approaching gale force but at this point it looks like gale force winds will occur north of the area, where water temps are a little warmer and the gradient is a little more defined. However, cannot rule out upgrade to Gale Warning with a later issuance. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Northeast flow will be ongoing Wednesday evening, with a surface wedge of high pressure inland and a weak low riding up the South Carolina coast. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will be in place. Winds will shift in the predawn hours Thursday morning as the low crosses the waters, becoming W-NW by 18Z, and rain will taper off during the afternoon. Mixing down of higher wind speeds on Thursday will yield gusts to 30 knots, which look to persist through most of Thursday night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will build over the waters through the period. It will take a little while for winds/seas to drop below Small Craft Advisory thresholds, but this should happen by early Friday afternoon. NW winds Friday will become more northerly Saturday and Sunday, and the pressure gradient will weaken as the high settles just north of the waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM/8 NEAR TERM...III/8 SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...MRR/SHK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.