Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 091324 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 924 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will result in seasonable weather across the area along with the potential for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through mid-week. A cold front will approach late Thursday resulting in an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE...
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Only minor tweaks made with mid-morning forecast update. Previous forecast remains on track for widely scattered afternoon storms today.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis shows a 1024mb high pressure centered just east-northeast of Bermuda, that is extending W/SW towards the SE US. Aloft, a ~593 dam high pres at H5 is located approx 300 miles ESE of Cape Fear. There also continues to be some subtle inverted troughing near the SE US coast as has been the case the last couple of days. This feature is less pronounced than yesterday though. Seeing a few showers around Cape Fear but with winds trending a bit more SW to WSW not anticipating as many as yesterday morning nearshore. The summertime pattern should allow another day of widely scattered showers and tstms, gradually transitioning inland with the sea breeze. These should diminish steadily after 23z as we lose heating and should be a dry night other than activity again possible near coast towards Wednesday morning. It should be noted that there is plenty of guidance that suggests activity will be more limited today. Have thus capped things in the 20-30% range - which also is in line with a bit more dry air noted over the area in latest water vapor imagery. Max Temps will be near to slightly above normal today in the low to mid 90s for most with lows tonight generally low to mid 70s except upper 70s near coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridge will become positioned SE and S of the forecast area during Wednesday with a trough gradually shifting into the Eastern United States. PWATs will increase during the day and with a weak impulse moving across is enough to warrant 30-40 POPs by the afternoon. An increasing pressure gradient along the coast will result in breezy conditions by the afternoon and evening with a resultant sea breeze boundary. Otherwise, above normal high/low temperatures can be expected during the short term period with bigger changes occurring during the long term time frame. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will approach during Thursday and make slow progress into the area. PWATs will be around 2+ inches as moisture pools along the boundary. Scattered to numerous convection will be the result with POPs lingering into Friday night, at least until the sharp H3 trough axis pivots across the area. Surging surface high pressure in the wake of the mid/upper trough`s passage will push the front south of the forecast area with a drop in dewpoints and below normal high/low temperatures through the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR continues. Still seeing less support than yesterday morning for fog/stratus but have kept in a brief restriction for KFLO. Otherwise scattered cumulus expected by the early afternoon, with the seabreeze circulation beginning anew. Expect isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms this aftn and have handled with VCTS for now. SW becoming SSW winds continue, increasing to 8-14kts in the afternoon. Extended Outlook...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through midweek may lead to brief restrictions. Otherwise VFR should rule. A cold front approaching from the NNW brings a greater threat to the flight categories by Thursday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure ENE of Bermuda is extending back towards the SE US and leading to moderate SW winds across the waters. Winds may briefly trend WSW this morning before becoming SSW and increasing a few knots this afternoon and evening when gusts to around 20kts are expected. Winds trend SW to WSW again into Wednesday morning. Seas will be 2-4ft in a mix of short period waves from the local winds and ~8s SE trade swell due to the placement of the Bermuda high and its interaction with troughing to the south. 8s trade swell begins to ease slowly tonight. Wednesday through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure and inland trough will maintain SWly flow across the waters during Wednesday. Speeds will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. GEFS wind speed probabilities indicate a decent chance of sustained winds >20 knots during this time which will lead to choppy 3-5 ft seas which will mask a less energetic SE swell. The flow will veer to a Wly direction by Thursday morning, then likely back to a SWly wind right ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. The front is expected to drift near the waters Thursday night, and finally push farther south of the waters by Friday night and Saturday. A relatively short-lived NEly fetch will develop in the wake of the front. Isolated to widely scattered convection is expected early Wednesday, then increasing in coverage during the day. Storms could become numerous during Thursday with the front in the vicinity. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MCW MARINE...SRP/MCW

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