Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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501 FXUS62 KILM 160133 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 933 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the north and maintains control through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected with rain chances returning late in the week as a coastal trough develops.
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&& .UPDATE...
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Forecast updated to lower rain chances the rest of the night, based on latest radar trends and hiRES models.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Ridging starts to build in, and with no real upper-level support going on, the surface front may stall somewhere in southern Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties tonight. Lows mostly in the lower 70s. Some of the cooler spots in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties may dip into the low-to-mid 60s. Ridging over the Georgia-Alabama border shifts eastward into the Carolinas Sunday. This should keep most everyone dry. The stalled front to the south does keep around some cloud cover, allowing for highs to reach a few degrees cooler than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure off of the New England coast and ridging aloft will maintain dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures through much of next week. Persistent onshore flow will bring humid conditions Sunday night and Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s both nights. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ongoing high pressure and ridging continues through Thursday. Latest global models develop a trough of low pressure offshore. Steering flow will keep this low south of the area, but SE winds will increase. Persistent SE winds will lead to the development of swell creating the potential for elevated rip currents late this week. A weak coastal trough could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to the coastal counties late in the week. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Some showers and thunderstorms remain this evening over pockets of the area, but not affecting the TAF sites. Winds become a bit more variable tonight, with an ESE wind by midday Sunday up to 10-12 kt, with sfc high pressure centered off to the NE. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Sunday... Southerly winds at 5-10kts back to the ENE late tonight, with the pressure gradient increasing the sustained speeds up to 10-15kts by Sunday afternoon. Seas remain at 2-3ft. Sunday Night through Thursday... Persistent SE flow will be in place throughout the forecast period. SE swell will generally stay 2-3 feet through Tuesday. A gradual increase in swell energy is expected on Wednesday and especially Thursday as SE winds increase and a weak trough of low pressure develops over the western Atlantic. Seas increase to 3-5 feet on Wednesday and near SCA conditions (6+ feet) by Thursday. Given that the development of this low has been inconsistent in consecutive model runs, confidence is low in the potential for SCA conditions by Thursday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MAS NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...MAS MARINE...IGB/21