Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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080 FXUS62 KILM 200147 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 947 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Developing low pressure off the SC Coast tonight will move northeast along the immediate NC Coast Wed into Thu. Patchy light rain along the coast late tonight, will become more widespread and push further inland during Wed. The rain will end early Thu as the low lifts further north, away from the forecast area. A cold frontal passage will occur late Fri followed by seasonable high pressure for the weekend. A frontal boundary accompanied with scattered showers will slowly drop south across the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 830 PM Tuesday...Latest HRRR and HiResW indicate patchy light rain late tonight and will back the rain potential to late tonight in the 15 to 24 percent range with the hier side of this range along the immediate NC coast and adjacent waters. The inland SC zones should remain mostly dry. Protected areas from north-northeast winds west of the I-95 corridor could see patchy frost before more opaque ci moves in as well as low level stratocu from the east. Sfc dewpts will be in the upper 20s to low 30s and do expect up to 5 degree sfc dewpoint depressions. Winds may briefly go calm or decouple at the far NW portions of the FA but overall do not expect a widespread frost with min temps dropping to 36 to 39 degrees. This may require a SPS. Previous...................................................... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Tricky forecast on tap for the near term period. First off, with temps mainly just getting down into the upr 30s tonight (mid 30s though in coldest spots), not expecting much in the way of frost with ~5 kt wind and dewpoints down in the upr 20s. Exception may be over far western areas where patchy frost is possible. Surface high pressure north of the area this aftn slides offshore tonight. Meanwhile, coastal low pressure gradually develops just offshore through Wednesday as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the west. Result will be increasing chances of rain from east to west through the day Wednesday, continuing into Wednesday night, in response to increasing low-level convergence and isentropic upglide. PoPs increased to 60-70% for eastern areas where the rain may be moderate to possibly heavy at times. As for temps, expect only highs in the 50s Wednesday due to NE flow and a cloudy sky. Lows temps Wednesday night mainly 40-45. && && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Surface low will lift off to the north as potent shortwave crosses the Carolinas on Thursday. Any lingering pcp from sfc low will move out of the area Thursday morning. Dry air will wrap around the back end with some clearing through the day, but mid to upper shortwave will ride through later in the day with mainly clouds, but may see some light pcp mainly to the north of local area over NC. Deep NW flow will develop through Thurs night on back end of shortwave moving out of area. This will give a little punch of CAA. Overall, expect some clouds mixing with sun and low end pcp chc on Thurs, but weather improving through Thurs night. Temps should be near seasonable through the period with overnight lows in the 40s and && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will build in slowly from the west and will migrate eastward through the weekend at the same time as mid to upper ridge builds over the area. Overall, expect a dry weekend with plenty of sunshine and warming temps. The dry air mass in place will allow for some large diurnal temp swings with afternoon highs just above normal and overnight lows just below. The center of the high will shift off shore Sunday night into Monday. This will produce a southerly return flow which will help to increase the temps and moisture, leading to some clouds mixing with the sunshine on Monday, but temps warming into the 70s. By Mon night into Tues, mid to upper trough will dig down over the Southeast. This will help to deepen sfc low as it tracks east toward the coast while at the same time, a cold front will drop down from the north. This will help to spread clouds and pcp into the Carolinas Mon night into midweek. Cooler air behind the front will drop temps quite a bit for Tues. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z...Low pressure developing off the SE US coast will move northward overnight. This has already started to bring in a mid- level deck along the coast and this will continue overnight. Expect MVFR conditions to develop on Wednesday morning. MVFR will be more likely along the NC coast with SC terminals approaching MVFR later in the morning. As of right now, most models have the developing low pressure system remaining well offshore which will bring light rain to ILM, with only VCSH throughout the day at coastal SC terminals. A feed of low-level marine moisture could lead to the development of IFR conditions along the coast with low stratus the primary threat, late Wednesday afternoon; MVFR elsewhere. Showers ending after the end of the forecast period. Northeast winds 5-10 knots increasing throughout the forecast period. Extended Outlook...Likely MVFR late Wednesday through Thursday with storm system. VFR returns Friday into weekend. && .MARINE... As of 900 PM Tuesday...SCA conditions to continue across all waters. Models are in decent agreement in developing a kink in the sfc pressure gradient where the sfc low will develop on it. This kink will extend from 41013 northwest to the Cape Fear region overnight into Wed. Looking at winds becoming ENE to E north of the kink and NNW-NNE south of this kink. Wind speeds will increase to a solid 20 to 30 kt in the vicinity of this kink with few to occasional gusts to Gale force. Significant seas will further build from Cape Fear northward with double digits possible...and hold steady south of the Cape as the fetch decreases-some. Previous.......................................................... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory continues over all waters for a prolonged period of 15-25 kt NE winds with gusts up to 30 kt. This as strong high pressure anchors off to the NE and surface low pressure develops just offshore late Wednesday. Winds may diminish as the center of low pressure moves directly over the local waters Wednesday night, but continued high seas may warrant an extension to the current Small Craft Advisory end time (midnight Wednesday night). Offshore flow will develop as high pressure begins to build in behind departing low on Thursday. The diminishing off shore flow will allow seas to subside from advisory levels Thurs morning down to 3 to 5 ft by end of the day. Gradient will remain a bit tight, though, as high pressure builds down and low strengthens off the coast of New England into Fri. Therefore winds may increase again Thurs night into early Fri, with seas slower to drop, especially in the outer waters Fri. By the weekend, winds will lighten as high pressure migrates slowly eastward reaching overhead by Sunday. This will produce improving marine conditions over the weekend with seas 2 to 4 ft on Sat and down less than 2 ft on Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. Gale Warning until 3 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DCH/MAS SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21 MARINE...

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