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273
FXUS62 KILM 232327
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
627 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue through tonight with increasing
chance of showers. Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms
will accompany a cold front that will cross the area Thursday
morning. Dry high pressure will build in behind the front
Thursday afternoon into the weekend. The high will shift south
of the area early next week. Temperatures near to slightly below
normal into the weekend will start warming early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 415 PM Wednesday...The FA is now well into the warm sector
     well ahead of the strong eastward moving cold front that will
be working its way across the windward side of the Appalachian
mountains early this evening. Various model soundings illustrate
moisture availability remains at or below 800 mb which at this
juncture is primarily involving Atlantic Ocean Moisture. As a
result, have continued in carrying a low chance for light
rainshowers late this aftn and well into this evening. As the
mid-level s/w trof continues it`s progression eastward, it taps
plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture and carry it northward. Model
trends have been narrowing the highest moisture content of the
atm for this event, including Gulf and Atlantic combined
moisture, to occur prior to sunrise Thu thru midday Thu. Models
indicate Peak progged PWS of 1.5 inches and excellent low level
wind shear, both speed and directional changes during this 6 to
9 hr time-line. However, instability is lacking which is usual
for this time of the year, ie. low Cape and high shear. With 50
kt winds progged at just 800 feet off the sfc, a well mixed
moderate to strong shower could produced a strong sfc wind gust
with thunder lacking. Will however, indicate isolated/low chance
for thunder during the 6 to 9 hr peak of pcpn occurrence.
Temperatures will be running 3 to 4 categories above normal
which will make it seem even warmer given the brief Arctic
temperatures experienced from Sun night thru late last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build in behind
exiting cold front Thurs night through Fri night. A very broad
mid to upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS
though with high getting suppressed a bit further south heading
into the weekend. This leaves a generally drier and cooler air
mass over the area. Temps will drop a good 30 degrees Thurs
night with temps down into the mid 30s by daybreak. The 850
temps drop out from near 12c Thurs aftn down to -5 by Fri night.
This CAA will keep daytime highs below normal for Fri with most
places closer to 50 most of the aftn. Fri night will have a
better shot at more decent radiational cooling as winds lighten
with mainly clear skies. Temps should drop down below freezing
most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...A very broad mid to upper trough will
remain over the eastern CONUS. This will maintain more of a
progressive flow in the northern stream, while sfc high
pressure will remained sprawled across the deep south over the
weekend, migrating closer overhead by Monday. Overall expect dry
weather through the weekend into early next week with a good
deal of sunshine. Temps will be just on the cool side through
the weekend, but will begin to warm through early next week.
Models continue to show low pressure riding up off the
Southeast coast early next week, but may be too far away to
produce any weather. The next appreciable chc of rain will most
likely come during the middle of next week as a cold front
reaches the area late Tues into Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18Z...A warm front has stalled just west of the CWA in the
Piedmont of NC. This warm front will continue to move northward
before occlusion takes place as the low pressure system crosses the
Blue Ridge Mountains. Additionally, a fetch of low-level moisture
extending from CHS to CLT is where scattered MVFR CIGs and showers
continue to advect inland. This fetch of moisture will move with the
warm front, northward and inland. Overnight, we could see a few
showers ahead of the main line of precipitation at the coastal
terminals around 06Z. Strong low-level winds will intensify and
introduce a chance of wind shear for all terminals as the low-level
jet maximum crosses the area between 12Z-16Z. Expect VFR CIGs ahead
of the line of showers with a few areas of brief MVFR. As the line
approaches, CIGs will remain in the 1k-3k ft range with heavy
showers and a couple rumbles of thunder. At this time, we do not
expect enough TS to include in the TAF due to lack of instability.
Winds will remain gusty and from the south; becoming southwesterly
as the line approaches. With the line of showers passing between 09Z-
16Z, there could be some areas of IFR. Skies will begin to clear in
the wake of the front as westerly winds develop, bringing drier and
much cooler air.

Extended Outlook...Becoming VFR by Thursday night. Predominately
VFR Friday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wednesday...Gale Warning remains in effect for all
waters. The sfc pg will continue to tighten well ahead of the
eastward progression of the strong cold front now located on
the windward side of the Appalachian Mountain chain. By
daybreak Thu, the north-south oriented cold front will be
located along the I-95 corridor. The tightened sfc pg will peak
Thu morning just prior to the cfp. After Fropa, models quickly
relax the sfc pg during Thu aftn. The CAA will not nearly be as
intense like what occurred Sun into Sun night due to the CAA
involved is NOT of Arctic origin. Winds will drop thru SCA Thu
aftn and continue trending lower Thu night. Significant seas
will primarily be short period dominated, ie. wind driven waves,
with no long period ground swell really involved. Seas will
peak in the 6 to 11 foot range with the highest seas off Cape
Fear and Romaine respectively with the shallow shoals helping
with heights. "Victory at sea conditions" will help describe the
rather chaotic seas due to wind direction changes during the
next 24 hrs. From the pre-dawn Thu hrs thru midday Thu, expect
the best chances to see widespread showers with embedded
tstorms.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build in behind
exiting cold front. Winds and seas will remain elevated with
SCA through Thurs night in NW to N winds up to 15 to 20 kts
initially. By Fri morning, seas will diminish in off shore flow
and will continue on a downward trend through Fri. Expect
lighter northerly winds Fri aftn through Fri night with seas
down under 4 ft.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure sprawled across the deep
South over the weekend will shift closer overhead and then off
the Southeast coast by Sun night. This will generally maintain a
light off shore flow 5 to 10 kts most of the time and seas less
than 3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21