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000
FXUS62 KILM 190532
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
132 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger offshore through the weekend and well
into next week. Warmer and an increasingly more humid airmass
will evolve with time. Rainfall chances through the end of next
week be be very limited and most areas will remain hot and dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...Isolated strong TSTMs utilized sea breeze
convergence for initiation, then eased to the WNW, in steering
flow of weak nature, allowing a few lucky gardens to pick up on
an inch of rainfall. Cades, SC reported penny size hail and 1
inch of rain just to the west of town. Another storm inflicted
similar impacts just north of Conway, SC along HWY 70 between
Allen and Allsbrook in late afternoon. With the daily heating
and convergence fading, a mainly clear and quiet weather night
is expected, with no forcing and dry air aloft. Moderately south
breezes to gradually ease through evening, veering to SW late.

As of 300 PM Saturday...Sunday is expected to be dry with
slightly cooler temperatures, although highs will still reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s, or about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Quiet but unseasonably warm weather on tap
through the short term. Mid level ridge centered to our east
with surface high pressure off Northeast/MidAtlantic coast.
Piedmont trough will develop but be of little consequence other
than to modify the weak wind fields. Any shower that pops up
Monday afternoon will quickly succumb to the mid level dry air-
likely before leading to measurable precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Backdoor front sags into the area Tuesday
and maybe into Wednesday. Meanwhile aloft mid level ridging
starts building out of the GOMEX into the Carolinas. Moisture
profiles appear to increase through a deep layer, probably not
as much as progged however given the strengthening ridge.
Temperatures will be elevated well above normal, only slightly
tapered by the yet uncertain position of the frontal boundary.
With its departure late in the period we will go into legit
summertime heat with widespread mid to upper 90s away from the
beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Dry and predominately VFR through the TAF period.
South/Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt, with higher gusts after 18Z.
High surface moisture could lead to patchy fog but confidence in
vsby restrictions at terminals is low attm.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR continues through mid week
as high pressure dominates. Slight chance of brief MVFR
conditions each morning from low stratus and/or fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight SSW waves around 2 every 5 seconds, less than 2 ft in
the near-shore SC waters. No TSTM or visibility restrictions
overnight.

Quiet offshore conditions with waves between 2 and 3 feet at 4 to 6
second periods.  Southwest winds mainly under 10 kts, although a few
locations will see up to 15 kt winds.

Most if not the entire extended forecast period will feature light
winds that will be predominantly southerly. Some oscillations
between SW and SE are possible based upon offshore high pressure and
piedmont trough. The exception to this will be a brief period of E
to NE winds behind a sagging back door front Tuesday into Wednesday.
It is not certain at this time how far south this boundary will
get.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAS/21
MARINE...