Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 060821 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 321 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Plenty of sunshine expected this weekend, with highs in the 50s and lows near freezing. High pressure settles into the Southeast early next week. Monday will be the last cool day, with temperatures on the rise starting Tuesday through the foreseeable future. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A 500 mb trough crossing the Southeast today is inducing surface low pressure to develop across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Deep northerly flow across the Carolinas is bringing dry air southward, undercutting the mid level moisture advecting in from the Gulf. Isentropic analysis on the 300K theta surface shows no significant upglide, so I feel confident that the dry air will be more than enough evaporate any spotty precip before it reaches the ground. Clouds should persist through late afternoon inland and after sunset along the coast, and highs should reach the mid 50s for most locations. Clearing skies tonight and light winds will allow temps to plummet into the 30s. A northerly surge will arrive several hours before sunrise, stirring the boundary layer just enough to prevent temps from really cratering, however it still appears freezing temperatures may occur across the Pee Dee region and up into Lumberton, Elizabethtown, and Burgaw. We`re still 1-4 weeks (depending on location) before the climatological last spring freeze, so there`s nothing too unusual about these temps. Sunshine is expected Sunday as high pressure across the Great Lakes builds southward with highs again in the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mid-level trough swings off the coast Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure sits over the Southeast, allowing for clear skies through the period. Sunday night lows just below freezing, with upper 20s possible in the colder inland spots. Northerly flow continues on Monday, allowing high temperatures to only reach the upper 50s, some 5-8 degrees below normal for early March. Monday night lows rebound by a few degrees to mostly above freezing, though some spots in Pender and Bladen counties might still reach the freezing mark. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure starts to slide stage right into the Atlantic, which sets up return flow. It will continue to move to the east through the long term period, increasing the warm air advection. Look for highs in the mid 60s on Tuesday, near 70 on Wednesday, and mid to possibly upper 70s on Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures escalate from near 40 Tuesday night to the mid 50s by Thursday night. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR ceilings 10-15kft are expected over the next 15-18 hours, with gradual clearing anticipated this evening. Winds will remain light. Extended Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies Saturday night through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Low pressure is developing across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. This low will jump east across Florida this evening and redevelop east of the Bahamas, remaining well south of the Carolinas. Although we`ll see clouds from this system any rain should remain south of our area. North to northeast winds up to 15 knots this morning will diminish to less than 10 kt this afternoon, but will increase again early Sunday morning as high pressure surges south across the Great Lakes. Although there will be a hint of a 7-8 second southeast swell, the majority of wave today through Sunday should be wind waves with periods less than 4 seconds. Sunday night through Wednesday...Northerly winds at 10-15kts with gusts up to 20kts become more variable at 5-10kts Monday afternoon as an upper level trough sweeps off the coast. High pressure over the Southeast creates variable winds at 5kts with a few gusts to 10kts through Tuesday afternoon. Wind direction gets more southerly Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before becoming variable once again. Seas linger near 1-2ft throughout this entire period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/IGB

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