Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220810 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 410 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through early next week. A cold front will approach the coast late Sunday into early Monday, but no significant rainfall is expected. An upper trough slowly approaching from the west, will bring a chance of showers in the upcoming week. A cold front will reach the coast late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM Saturday...Mid level high pressure, although being slightly suppressed to the southeast in the Atlantic, will continue to dominate conditions through the near term period. At the surface, weak high pressure will transition to more of a weak southwest flow. Overall pops remain at a minimum. Highs today, following the MET numbers will be in the middle to upper 80s. Sunday morning lows will be in the middle 60s inland to near 70 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Saturday...Mid-level and sfc ridging over the adjacent Atl Waters, will slide a bit further east during this period. This new positioning will open up a passageway from the Gulf of Mexico to and across the SE States. And also, another passageway around the periphery of the upper high/ridge situated over the western Atl Waters. Models indicate a weak s/w trof or in this case an Easterly wave, that will track around the periphery of the upper Atlantic high reaching the ATL Waters off the Carolina Coasts by the end of this period. The mid and upper levels will remain quite dry during this period, with the bulk of the atm moisture residing initially below 850mb. Moisture does increase in the low levels during this period with moisture increasing thru 700mb via latest rh model time height displays and trends for various locations across the FA. This will lead to additional Cu/SC development and also a slowly increasing potential for showers and isolated tstorms that may move onshore especially during the nocturnal phase late Sun night but more-so for Mon night into Tue and the POPs reflect this thinking. Temps will run above average with highs 1 to 2 categories above normal and lows around 2 categories above the norm. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 333 PM Friday...Agreement looks above average in GFS and ECMWF depictions of the H5 field, in the upcoming work week, anchoring an upper ridge into the area from offshore through early next week. The ridge to gradually give way, to impingement of an upper trough from the west middle to late of next week. As a vigorous short-wave rounds this trough into Friday, a cold front will be forced to the coast, where it may stall, or lift north as a warm front, as the short-wave ejects off to the NE, leaving the front nearly parallel to the coast. Sensible weather therefor should see isolated to scattered convection this week, becoming more unsettled late in the week, mainly by the coast. Because of ridging and mainly pre-frontal conditions, temps to run a little bit above normal for late September. Interestingly enough, the low-level vorticity of Florence this period, looks to approach our coast as a weak tropical low pressure system later Tuesday, very weak. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very weak high pressure, little if any mid or high level cloudiness to roll across the area and of course plenty of low level residual moisture is a perfect mix for significant fog. Expect MVFR to mostly IFR conditions to develop through the early morning hours. VFR conditions should develop mid morning and persist through the remainder of the period. Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR through this period. However, flight restrictions are possible in late night/early morning fog/stratus each day. And brief flight restrictions are possible within showers/thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM Saturday...Weak high pressure will maintain light winds across the waters through the period. The synoptic winds will have an east to northeast direction with the sea breeze shifting winds to southeast this afternoon. Significant seas will be 1-2 feet. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Saturday...Elongated surface high off the coast will gradually retreat east through the period. Gradient will remain weak with northeast flow peaking on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range late in the period. Seas around 2 ft Sat night into Sun may build to 2 to 3 ft due to prolonged period of weak northeast flow. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 333 PM Friday...Increasingly rough this period, because easterly wind flow is on the increase, persistent. 3-4 foot seas to become common with 5 ft waves outer waters into mid week, generally dominant wave periods of 6-8 seconds. Scattered marine showers and isolated TSTMS can be expected this period. A tropical low may approach the coast Tuesday night and weaken. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 333 PM Friday...Coastal Flood Warnings will be needed for the next several days of high tides along the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington as the freshwater flood wave travels down the river and increasing astronomical tides associated with the nearing full moon (Sep 24/25) push up the river. Soon after the full moon the flooding may drop to advisory levels for the days that follow as both the flood wave and astronomical effects abate. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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