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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 060650
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
250 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm today and Friday due
to a stalled frontal boundary offshore. High pressure will
follow for the weekend, bringing cool and quiet weather through
Mother`s Day. A front should drop into the area Monday and may
linger into Tuesday before dry high pressure builds in.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CFP during these Thu pre-dawn hrs, will work it`s way south of
the ILM CWA by daybreak Thu. Will see an influx of cooler and
drier air, although enough moisture in the lowest 10k ft will
provide post-frontal stratocu and/or altocu that will dominate
the skies for the majority of the next 24 hrs. Max temps today
will be a good 15 degrees lower than Wed highs. The sfc pg will
relax quickly this aftn and night with initially blustery N-NE
winds diminishing during this aftn thru tonight. A couple
progressive and dynamic mid-level s/w trofs will help carve out
a longwave trof pattern across the Eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the
U.S. during Fri and going into the next period. One of these 5H
s/w trofs swings across the area during Fri and develops a sfc
low nearly overhead by Fri daybreak, then intensifies it as
it pushes ENE to off Cape Hatteras by early Fri evening.
Moisture is not all that deep across the FA when all this takes
place Fri but enough to include low chance POPs for showers
across mainly the ILM NC CWA briefly late Thu night thru Fri
morning. Dynamics from the s/w trof will be the key for pcpn to
occur especially during this time of day when instability is
not all that plentiful. Expect sfc pg to tighten from SW to NE
across the FA during Fri, in the wake of the sfc low lifting
ENE. Should see atleast breezy W to NW winds encompassing the
entire FA during the aftn. Max temps Fri will be at or slightly
lower than what`s being fcst for Thu highs, ie widespread 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Overall a quiet short-term period. Low pressure lifting off to
the northeast on Friday will bring weak cold air advection as
overnight lows drop into the mid and upper 40s across the area.
High pressure dominates on Saturday with clear skies and
temperatures in the upper 70s. High pressure pushes offshore on
Saturday night, but not before overnight temperatures have a
chance to drop into the mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Rapid warming on Sunday as high pressure slips offshore and a
warm front lifts north of the area by Sunday evening. Cold front
approaches the area on Monday and is likely to bring some
shower activity, mainly late Monday afternoon into early
evening, highs in the mid 80s with southerly flow ahead of the
front. Models have been inconsistent over the last few days on
the evolution of this front across the area. Therefore with
future forecasts, PoPs may increase as current indications
support a slower frontal progression and the potential for the
boundary to stall near the area. Current models show the front
clearing the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning and
stalling offshore. This solution would keep us mostly dry on
Tuesday with a slight chance of precip during the afternoon as
the front attempts to lift northward. Temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday remain below normal in the cooler air behind the
front. Low pressure develops along the frontal boundary on
Tuesday night near the FL panhandle. This system will begin to
lift northward Wednesday morning as shower chances increase
throughout the day. High temperatures on Wednesday in the mid
and upper 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR through the 06Z TAF issuance period. CFP ongoing across
the Eastern Carolinas. No pcpn associated with it. Will have to
contend with the wind shift, from W to N-NE after it`s complete
passage. Wind speeds after FROPA will peak in the 10kt g15 kt
during this morning before dropping to 5 kt or less later this
aftn and continuing thru the night due to the sfc pg having
relaxed. Post frontal stratocu/altocu clouds will dominate
ceilings, with 4.5k ft or higher ceilings expected.

Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR conditions from clouds and
possible pcpn late tonight into Fri due to a stalled front
just south of the area lifting back northward. A secondary,
dry CFP late Fri followed by dry high pressure thru the
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...

-- Changed Discussion --
Through Friday...
Will have a weak but brief post cold frontal N-NE surge that
will last thru midday today. Windspeeds to remain below SCA
thresholds during this surge. There-after, the sfc pg relaxes
quickly and the sfc pressure pattern becomes somewhat diffuse
during this aftn and lasting thru much of tonight. Will
identify a dominate wind direction in lieu of going VRBL. Sfc
low to develop nearly overhead in the vicinity of the NC-SC
state border by Fri daybreak. The low is expected to intensify
as it lifts ENE to off HAT by Fri evening. In it`s wake, the sfc
pg will quickly tighten with it`s associated cold front exiting
the waters by mid-late aftn. Offshore winds will become dominant
during Fri with speeds increasing to possibly SCA levels, mainly
in the form of 25+ kt gusts during Fri aftn.

Short period (6 seconds or less) wind driven waves will dominate
sig. seas for the majority of this period. An underlying 2 ft
or less southeasterly swell will remain present during this
period and could briefly dominate late today thru tonight.


Friday Night through Monday...
Low pressure continues to pull away from the coast on Friday
night as high pressure builds into the area. NW winds 10-20
knots should remain below advisory threshold and will gradually
improve through Saturday morning. High pressure dominates on
Saturday with winds around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet. High
pressure quickly pushes offshore on Saturday night into Sunday
morning as winds become westerly, still around 10 knots.
Southerly flow develops on Sunday as high pressure moves further
offshore and the gradient increases with wind speeds 10-15
knots. Winds increase ahead of a cold front late Sunday into
Monday. Winds transition to southerly 15-20 knots with gusts to
25 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible as
the gradient tightens on Monday. Cold front pushes through the
area late Monday and winds become offshore and weaken slightly
to 10-15 knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...21
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21