National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 091324
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
924 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will result in seasonable weather across
the area along with the potential for widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms each day through mid-week. A cold front will
approach late Thursday resulting in an increased chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather conditions
are expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor tweaks made with mid-morning forecast update.
Previous forecast remains on track for widely scattered
afternoon storms today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows a 1024mb high pressure centered
just east-northeast of Bermuda, that is extending W/SW towards
the SE US. Aloft, a ~593 dam high pres at H5 is located approx
300 miles ESE of Cape Fear. There also continues to be some
subtle inverted troughing near the SE US coast as has been the
case the last couple of days. This feature is less pronounced
than yesterday though. Seeing a few showers around Cape Fear but
with winds trending a bit more SW to WSW not anticipating as
many as yesterday morning nearshore. The summertime pattern
should allow another day of widely scattered showers and tstms,
gradually transitioning inland with the sea breeze. These should
diminish steadily after 23z as we lose heating and should be a
dry night other than activity again possible near coast towards
Wednesday morning. It should be noted that there is plenty of
guidance that suggests activity will be more limited today. Have
thus capped things in the 20-30% range - which also is in line
with a bit more dry air noted over the area in latest water
vapor imagery. Max Temps will be near to slightly above normal
today in the low to mid 90s for most with lows tonight generally
low to mid 70s except upper 70s near coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H5 ridge will become positioned SE and S of the forecast area
during Wednesday with a trough gradually shifting into the
Eastern United States. PWATs will increase during the day and
with a weak impulse moving across is enough to warrant 30-40
POPs by the afternoon. An increasing pressure gradient along the
coast will result in breezy conditions by the afternoon and
evening with a resultant sea breeze boundary. Otherwise, above
normal high/low temperatures can be expected during the short
term period with bigger changes occurring during the long term
time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will approach during Thursday and make slow
progress into the area. PWATs will be around 2+ inches as
moisture pools along the boundary. Scattered to numerous
convection will be the result with POPs lingering into Friday
night, at least until the sharp H3 trough axis pivots across
the area. Surging surface high pressure in the wake of the
mid/upper trough`s passage will push the front south of the
forecast area with a drop in dewpoints and below normal high/low
temperatures through the weekend into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR continues. Still seeing less support than
yesterday morning for fog/stratus but have kept in a brief
restriction for KFLO. Otherwise scattered cumulus expected by
the early afternoon, with the seabreeze circulation beginning
anew. Expect isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms this
aftn and have handled with VCTS for now. SW becoming SSW winds
continue, increasing to 8-14kts in the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
through midweek may lead to brief restrictions. Otherwise VFR
should rule. A cold front approaching from the NNW brings a
greater threat to the flight categories by Thursday, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure ENE of Bermuda is extending
back towards the SE US and leading to moderate SW winds across
the waters. Winds may briefly trend WSW this morning before
becoming SSW and increasing a few knots this afternoon and
evening when gusts to around 20kts are expected. Winds trend SW
to WSW again into Wednesday morning. Seas will be 2-4ft in a mix
of short period waves from the local winds and ~8s SE trade
swell due to the placement of the Bermuda high and its
interaction with troughing to the south. 8s trade swell begins
to ease slowly tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure and inland
trough will maintain SWly flow across the waters during
Wednesday. Speeds will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold
front. GEFS wind speed probabilities indicate a decent chance of
sustained winds >20 knots during this time which will lead to
choppy 3-5 ft seas which will mask a less energetic SE swell.
The flow will veer to a Wly direction by Thursday morning, then
likely back to a SWly wind right ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon. The front is expected to drift near the waters
Thursday night, and finally push farther south of the waters by
Friday night and Saturday. A relatively short-lived NEly fetch
will develop in the wake of the front. Isolated to widely
scattered convection is expected early Wednesday, then
increasing in coverage during the day. Storms could become
numerous during Thursday with the front in the vicinity.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MCW
MARINE...SRP/MCW