Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011604 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1204 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Temperatures will begin to warm and humidity will increase by midweek through the end of the week as high pressure settles far off the Southeast United States coast. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will return later in the week as the weather pattern becomes a little more unsettled. && .UPDATE... No updates to the current forecast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Break from heavy rainfall continues today and Tuesday with mostly sunny skies, and cooler than normal temperatures for June 1st. Today officially begins hurricane season after a early tropical May flurry, and the southern Gulf swirl should remain well south of the area through at least mid-week. Elevated RH at 850 millibars may bring a few 5-6 kft clouds today through Tuesday, as the moisture remains captured below a temperature inversion. Max-T Tuesday 2-4 deg F warmer than today. Expect a few NE gusts to 20 mph along the coast early this morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... H5 heights will build slightly Tuesday night into Wednesday as a ridge axis moves across the region. This axis will remain in control through Wednesday night but will begin shifting toward the east. As a result, the higher precipitable water values and bulk of the unsettled weather will remain well S and W of the forecast during the short term period. Above normal temperatures are on tap during Wednesday as southwesterly flow takes root with a developing surface trough across the western Carolinas and with high pressure situated far off the SC/GA coasts. Warm southwesterly flow Wednesday night will hold lows a few degrees above normal as well. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Convective chances will increase by Friday as a weakness, between a large upper ridge over Northern Mexico/West Texas and a ridge far off the Southeast United States, settles across the Carolinas into the central Gulf coast region. However, a dry H85-5 layer may prove to be an inhibiting factor for convection during much of Thursday. The column will eventually begin to moisten with precipitable water values surging to around 2 inches Thursday night. The chance for showers/tstms will persist into Saturday as well with an inland trough providing focus, and likely an active sea breeze front. Potential for a Gulf low this weekend as mid/upper high moves into the Central Plains/MS Valley. The position of the ridge could direct NW flow impulses into the Carolinas during Sunday. Big question mark during that time frame will be moisture availability - which models struggle with in this regime - thus bears watching. MEX numbers are reasonable with lows mainly above normal and highs near or above normal each period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure centered over Ohio will give us northeast flow today, becoming easterly this afternoon. Some scattered stratocu possible today, otherwise nearly cloud free. Light winds tonight with some possible ground fog after midnight. Tuesday, high pressure shifts east, giving us southwest flow and warmer temps. Extended Outlook...The dry atmosphere will support VFR flight conditions through Friday. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday: Gusty NE winds early to maintain advisory flags through daybreak, but winds will ease today, and by afternoon flags to lower. SW winds will increase Tuesday afternoon onward, as a Piedmont pressure trough interacts with high pressure offshore. This may bring 25 kt gusts late Tuesday, and an advisory may be needed for gusty SW winds. Dry this period so no TSTMs expected. Subsiding NE wind-seas today, mixed with ESE swell, SW wind- waves to increase Tuesday. Tuesday night through Saturday: A southwesterly fetch will continue to develop with the strongest winds generally north of Cape Fear Tuesday night into Wednesday. The pressure gradient between a trough across the western Carolinas and high pressure far off the SC/GA coast may support marginal Small Craft thresholds by Wednesday afternoon. While a southwesterly fetch will be in place Thursday through Saturday speeds are expected to be a notch lower as the trough drifts toward the coast. Regardless, this fetch will create choppy sea conditions which could be locally enhanced by increasing chances of convection, especially toward the end of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...43 MARINE...MJC/SRP

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