Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 060650 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 250 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm today and Friday due to a stalled frontal boundary offshore. High pressure will follow for the weekend, bringing cool and quiet weather through Mother`s Day. A front should drop into the area Monday and may linger into Tuesday before dry high pressure builds in.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CFP during these Thu pre-dawn hrs, will work it`s way south of the ILM CWA by daybreak Thu. Will see an influx of cooler and drier air, although enough moisture in the lowest 10k ft will provide post-frontal stratocu and/or altocu that will dominate the skies for the majority of the next 24 hrs. Max temps today will be a good 15 degrees lower than Wed highs. The sfc pg will relax quickly this aftn and night with initially blustery N-NE winds diminishing during this aftn thru tonight. A couple progressive and dynamic mid-level s/w trofs will help carve out a longwave trof pattern across the Eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. during Fri and going into the next period. One of these 5H s/w trofs swings across the area during Fri and develops a sfc low nearly overhead by Fri daybreak, then intensifies it as it pushes ENE to off Cape Hatteras by early Fri evening. Moisture is not all that deep across the FA when all this takes place Fri but enough to include low chance POPs for showers across mainly the ILM NC CWA briefly late Thu night thru Fri morning. Dynamics from the s/w trof will be the key for pcpn to occur especially during this time of day when instability is not all that plentiful. Expect sfc pg to tighten from SW to NE across the FA during Fri, in the wake of the sfc low lifting ENE. Should see atleast breezy W to NW winds encompassing the entire FA during the aftn. Max temps Fri will be at or slightly lower than what`s being fcst for Thu highs, ie widespread 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Overall a quiet short-term period. Low pressure lifting off to the northeast on Friday will bring weak cold air advection as overnight lows drop into the mid and upper 40s across the area. High pressure dominates on Saturday with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s. High pressure pushes offshore on Saturday night, but not before overnight temperatures have a chance to drop into the mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Rapid warming on Sunday as high pressure slips offshore and a warm front lifts north of the area by Sunday evening. Cold front approaches the area on Monday and is likely to bring some shower activity, mainly late Monday afternoon into early evening, highs in the mid 80s with southerly flow ahead of the front. Models have been inconsistent over the last few days on the evolution of this front across the area. Therefore with future forecasts, PoPs may increase as current indications support a slower frontal progression and the potential for the boundary to stall near the area. Current models show the front clearing the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning and stalling offshore. This solution would keep us mostly dry on Tuesday with a slight chance of precip during the afternoon as the front attempts to lift northward. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday remain below normal in the cooler air behind the front. Low pressure develops along the frontal boundary on Tuesday night near the FL panhandle. This system will begin to lift northward Wednesday morning as shower chances increase throughout the day. High temperatures on Wednesday in the mid and upper 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR through the 06Z TAF issuance period. CFP ongoing across the Eastern Carolinas. No pcpn associated with it. Will have to contend with the wind shift, from W to N-NE after it`s complete passage. Wind speeds after FROPA will peak in the 10kt g15 kt during this morning before dropping to 5 kt or less later this aftn and continuing thru the night due to the sfc pg having relaxed. Post frontal stratocu/altocu clouds will dominate ceilings, with 4.5k ft or higher ceilings expected. Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR conditions from clouds and possible pcpn late tonight into Fri due to a stalled front just south of the area lifting back northward. A secondary, dry CFP late Fri followed by dry high pressure thru the weekend.
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&& .MARINE...
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Through Friday... Will have a weak but brief post cold frontal N-NE surge that will last thru midday today. Windspeeds to remain below SCA thresholds during this surge. There-after, the sfc pg relaxes quickly and the sfc pressure pattern becomes somewhat diffuse during this aftn and lasting thru much of tonight. Will identify a dominate wind direction in lieu of going VRBL. Sfc low to develop nearly overhead in the vicinity of the NC-SC state border by Fri daybreak. The low is expected to intensify as it lifts ENE to off HAT by Fri evening. In it`s wake, the sfc pg will quickly tighten with it`s associated cold front exiting the waters by mid-late aftn. Offshore winds will become dominant during Fri with speeds increasing to possibly SCA levels, mainly in the form of 25+ kt gusts during Fri aftn. Short period (6 seconds or less) wind driven waves will dominate sig. seas for the majority of this period. An underlying 2 ft or less southeasterly swell will remain present during this period and could briefly dominate late today thru tonight. Friday Night through Monday... Low pressure continues to pull away from the coast on Friday night as high pressure builds into the area. NW winds 10-20 knots should remain below advisory threshold and will gradually improve through Saturday morning. High pressure dominates on Saturday with winds around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet. High pressure quickly pushes offshore on Saturday night into Sunday morning as winds become westerly, still around 10 knots. Southerly flow develops on Sunday as high pressure moves further offshore and the gradient increases with wind speeds 10-15 knots. Winds increase ahead of a cold front late Sunday into Monday. Winds transition to southerly 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible as the gradient tightens on Monday. Cold front pushes through the area late Monday and winds become offshore and weaken slightly to 10-15 knots.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...21 NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/21

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