Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 121449 AAA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 949 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will move across the area today and this evening with an arctic cold front. Cold high pressure will build in Wednesday followed by increasing moisture with developing low pressure offshore. This system will bring an extended period of rain, wind and cool temperatures. Conditions will improve early next week. && .UPDATE... Another update to raise temps near the coast again! At 945 it`s 72 degrees at ILM. I`m also seeing 70s showing up on the mesonet obs across New Hanover, Brunswick, and Georgetown counties. These mild readings won`t last long however. 8 AM temperatures across the area are pretty close to forecast highs, and with the leading edge of the cold advection still a hundred miles west of Florence I`ve raised forecast highs by 3-5 degrees area-wide. This gives lower 60s along the I-95 corridor and 70 for Wilmington. Temperatures are still expected to crash through the 40s as the arctic air arrives this afternoon. Based on radar and 06z model QPF I`ve delayed the arrival of rain by a couple of hours east of I-95 as well. No other significant changes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main concerns for the next 36 hours is the approach of a strong cold front that will bring short periods of moderate to heavy rainfall for the Tuesday morning and afternoon commutes, along with sub- freezing temperatures Wednesday morning. Strong cold front is still on track to push through the region later today. First half of the day will be seasonable with highs for the day occurring sometime late this morning or during the early afternoon before the cold air push. Temperatures will steadily drop through the day with upper 40s shortly after lunchtime along the I- 95 corridor and freezing temperatures overnight into Wednesday morning. The the first freeze has already occurred for most of the area, any sensitive crops or plants will need to be protected from the cold tonight. Rain, heavy at times, could affect the morning and afternoon commutes for Tuesday. Cold air pushes in aloft as the front moves toward the coast, and a few falling snow flakes cannot be ruled out on the back edge of the precipitation area. Much colder temperatures expected for Wednesday as cold high pressure settles into the area. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s is between 15 and 20 degrees below normal for mid November. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast will feature quick changes as global guidance has come into better agreement on low pressure moving just offshore moreso for the extended forecast. Thursday morning will start out with mostly below freezing temperatures again followed quickly by increasing cloud cover and even a chance of rain overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. This as isentropic lift begins with the developing storm system. Rainfall amounts will be light for this period as it will take some time for the lower levels to saturate. HIghs Thursday will recover nicely from the sub freezing temperatures in the morning for most areas into the 50s. Not much decrease for Friday`s lows with the increasing moisture with readings dropping into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Global guidance has come into better agreement this morning with the low pressure system moving up near the coast for the weekend. The GFS has trended more to the ECMWF with a closed low moving across the southeast with the surface low moving up somewhat southeast of Cape Fear. The system appears to be more progressive this morning via both models as a kicker system well to the west keeps things moving even with a closed low. Overall expect Friday through about Sunday or so to be quiet miserable with rain and windy conditions. Still difficult to say how much rain we get as the GFS shows 48 hour total QPF of 2-3 inches but this is usually a bit on the high side. Many times the heavier rainfall has difficulty making inroads inland. Still mid level frontogenesis could do the trick. I trended Sunday and Monday a bit drier due to the aforementioned progressive nature of the system. Temperatures have once again cooled due to the moisture. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions ahead of the front this morning with westerly winds becoming northwesterly. As the cold front approaches, showers will develop ahead of the main line as sub-VFR conditions begin due to lowering ceilings and obstructed VIS within rain showers. Main shield of precip will move west to east across the area with IFR conditions developing this afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions will end at all terminals before midnight. Winds will become northerly and maintain 15-20 knots with gusts between 20-30 during and after the frontal passage. Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible at times Tuesday due to another cold front passage, becoming VFR Wednesday through Friday. && .MARINE... Strong cold front will bring gale conditions offshore with a strong wind shift from the south to the northwest between 25 and 35 kts with higher gusts possible. Wave heights out to 20 NM could reach in excess of 10 feet, but between the coastline and 10 NM should be between 4 and 6 feet. Cold frontal passage will bring chances for thunderstorms offshore with locally higher winds and waves within. Precipitation should end by Wednesday morning with much cooler temperatures offshore and improving sea conditions. Winds and seas will be somewhat tranquil for Thursday into early Friday as arctic high pressure will be modifying and the axis moving off. Expect a northeast flow of 10 knots or so with seas of 2- 4 feet. Conditions go down dramatically for basically the remainder of the period as low pressure develops and moves offshore. Expect a prolonged period of small craft conditions and with possible gales easing off early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ054>056- 058. NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ106>110. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...TRA/MCK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...21 MARINE...MCK/SHK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.