Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160211 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1011 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity will continue through the week as high pressure ridges across the area from it`s center anchored offshore from the Carolinas. Weak troffing across the Central Carolinas will strengthen slightly during the mid to late week period, resulting in a better chance for convection Thu thru Sat. High pressure will build back across the area Sun. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 945 M Monday...No major changes needed, other then some hourly grid tweaking using current conditions and observed trends then applying them to the overall fcst scheme. Previous.................................................. As of 300 PM Monday...Hot and humid weather will continue. Temps well into the 90s on Tues combined with high humidity will produce another day of heat advisory conditions with heat indices slightly higher than today. A heat advisory has been issued for heat indices near and above 105 degrees. Temps will remain warm overnight Sfc high off shore will continue to pump warm and humid air in a light southerly flow. Mid to upper ridge extending up through the Southeast as deeper trough and remnants of Barry will run up through the Mississippi Valley. The N-NW flow around the upper ridge will allow some moisture to round the top of the ridge into the area allowing for an increase in overall column moisture on Tues. Pcp water values will reach up near 2 inches Tues aftn. Overall expect localized and isolated showers, mainly associated with convergence along sea breeze boundary and trough inland. As heating of the day comes to an end in the evening, diurnal convection will end, as well. Expect fair weather overnight both tonight and Tues night with mainly some high cirrus streaming overhead. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Heat and humidity will continue across the region as a mid and upper level ridge sits across the Carolinas. With 850 mb temps soaring to around +20C during the day Wednesday, inland highs could approach 100 degrees. Dewpoints only mixing down into low 70s inland and mid-upper 70s at the coast should produce heat indices in the 105-108 range, enough for another heat advisory. The upper ridge will begin to break down a bit in the afternoon and evening as shortwave energy moves east across Tennessee and into the mountains. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible given large instability and capping becoming weaker with time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...The weather pattern aloft changes considerably for Thursday and Friday as the upper level ridge gets knocked back by a trough moving in from the west. This trough actually contains moisture from former Hurricane Barry, and should lead to an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms both days. The airmass should remain just as humid and almost as hot as earlier in the week, and it`s possible we`ll maintain heat indices at or above 105 degrees despite the increase in clouds and convective activity. By Saturday and Sunday, the upper ridge redevelops which should lead to a strengthening convective cap, a reduction in mid and upper level moisture, and lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Heat appears that it will continue through at least Saturday, and the potential for yet another day or two of heat advisories is on the table. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 00Z...Another quiet TAF period with predominately VFR. A few areas of ground fog are possible tomorrow morning as southerly winds become calm overnight. Likely will see at worst MVFR across the area other than a few areas of patchy fog near significant sources of moisture (lakes, rivers, etc.). A similar day on Tuesday as the past couple. Clear with a few fair weather Cu developing into isolated showers during the afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any isolated to widely scattered convection the first part of the upcoming week. && .MARINE... Tonight thru Tue Night: As of 945 PM Monday...No changes needed. Previous.................................................. As of 300 PM Monday...Benign marine conditions will continue with seas mainly 1 to 2 ft in a light southerly flow around Bermuda High. A longer period SE swell will continue to mix in. Winds and seas will pick up slightly near shore in afternoon sea breeze. Wed thru Sat: Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the Carolina coast Wednesday with a lee-side trough situated across the western Piedmont of the Carolinas. This pattern typically leads to moderate southwest winds with moderate to strong seabreezes as inland temperatures soar well into the 90s. We expect southwest winds to average 15 knots through the period, with seas gradually building from around 2 feet on Wednesday to 3-4 feet by Friday. Wednesday has a relatively low potential of showers and thunderstorms, but this chance should grow considerably by Thursday night into Friday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...21

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