Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200418 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1218 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will linger offshore through the end of the week. A backdoor cold front will bring some very small rain chances Monday through Tuesday. Once the front lifts out to the north Thursday a summerlike hot airmass will move into the Carolinas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1020 PM Sunday...No significant changes were needed to the ongoing forecast with the late evening updates. Patchy mist is possible in predawn to sunrise, favored mainly interior NE SC. As of 619 PM Sunday...Popcorn cumulus inland of fair weather variety will dissolve like butter with loss of surface heating. Movies from satellite show little impediments for clear sky to debut, opening the curtains to an unobstructed night-time sky, not very long following night-fall. Gusts are easing with latest 10-meter wind forecasts showing sustained speeds dropping to around 6 mph by midnight. This may aid in patches of mist 2 miles or greater visibility, over interior NE SC into daybreak, but short-lived after sunrise. As of 300 PM Sunday...Relatively quiet conditions as high pressure aloft remains the dominant force behind mostly clear skies and dry conditions tonight. Some model guidance is hinting at fog development again overnight and into the morning hours, but did not have enough confidence to place into the forecast. A weak front will approach the region Monday and may spark a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Model sounding profiles have a decent amount of instability, but little or no wind/shear to keep long lived storms moving. Expecting a few isolated storms to pop up, but severe weather is not anticipated. Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Despite the mid level ridge in place through the period a backdoor cold front sagging into the area will call for some very low rain chances. Slightly higher rain chances may be warranted for northern zones as a shortwave disturbance streaks by Monday night. The GFS has another trailing vort Tuesday but it appears to be borne of feedback and then advected across the area. Otherwise the main headline will be above normal temperatures as the building ridge provides deep layer warmth. Some slightly cooler/closer to climo temps may sneak into northeastern counties Tuesday night behind the sagging boundary. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure building in behind backdoor cold front to put off heat wave by one day. With the boundary weakening/lifting out by Thursday however the stage will be set for summertime heat as 595 dam ridge builds over FL panhandle. Lower 90s coast/mid 90s inland will become commonplace for much of the rest of the period with little to no rain chances. Two things will prevent advisory level heat indices: the ridge being displaced to our SW rather than overhead as well as offshore high pressure offshore remaining weak precluding much advection of moisture/dewpoints locally. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Except for a low probability of MVFR ground fog inland from the coast this morning, VFR conditions should continue. Models suggest an approaching weak front could help develop isolated showers or thunderstorms this evening, but probabilities are generally 30 percent or less. Modest southwest surface winds should back around the south 10-15 kt near the coast this afternoon with the seabreeze. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR through mid week as high pressure dominates. Slight chance of brief MVFR conditions each morning from low stratus and/or fog.
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&& .MARINE...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure dominates with quiet weather today and tonight. Onshore winds through Monday between 10 and 15 kts and waves between 2 and 3 feet mainly from the southeast between 4 and 6 seconds. Offshore thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon as a front approaches from the west, which could bring locally higher seas and wind gusts. Southwesterly flow will lighten and veer Monday night into Tuesday with the approach of a sagging cold front. Very light onshore flow is then slated for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Seas will tend to stay in the 2-3ft range. Easterly flow continues into Wednesday but then a switch to southerly flow slated by Thursday as the boundary lifts back to the north.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Corrected at 1215 AM Monday...Astronomical high tides will create higher than normal tides tonight for area beaches, including Wrightsville and Myrtle Beaches, around or just after sunset. Advisory level tides are expected to be reached for inland New Hanover county, and a coastal flood advisory has been issued for this evening between 10 PM and 2 AM Monday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MCK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...TRA

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