Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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789 FXUS62 KILM 131154 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 654 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico will move along the Carolina coast this evening. Canadian high pressure will build in from the northwest late Saturday through Sunday. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow for mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest sfc analysis shows 1040 mb high pressure over the Gulf of Maine with weak low pressure developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light rain is slowly moving in from the west this morning, associated with weak warm air advection. The better chance of rain arrives this aftn/evening (categorical PoPs) due to potent shortwave energy aloft well ahead of an upr-level trough axis. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure develops immediately over the area, with winds shifting from SE this evening to SW by early Sat morning. After a brief break early overnight, another round of rainfall arrives Saturday morning due to more approaching shortwave energy. The rain will be moderate to potentially heavy at times, with 1-2 inches expected total. Model soundings continue to show the main instability remaining offshore, so limited a slight chance of thunder to just coastal areas and the marine area. Expect dry wx everywhere by Sat aftn alongside decreasing clouds. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather expected in the wake of the storm system for the short term period. A surface trough will move across early in the period with winds shifting from the west, southwest to west, northwest. For Sunday expect mostly sunny skies and temperatures near seasonal values with highs in the upper 50s as weak high pressure builds in. Sunday night into Monday morning will see more of the same, with mostly clear skies and lows in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monday will feature very warm temperatures under a return southerly flow. Guidance has warmed slightly with highs now expected to approach 70 degrees. Changes are in the offing however as a cold front will move across from west to east Tuesday. We are maintaining the likely pops but citing the good model consistency categorical values should appear in the forecast in the next couple of cycles. Still warm Tuesday ahead of the front with temperatures nearing 70 (and possibly over depending on cloud cover) again. Much colder with dry conditions in the wake of the front with highs struggling to reach the 50s and most areas seeing lows at or below freezing. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR/IFR ceilings currently across inland NE SC as low level moisture is being advected into the area. As warm air advection continues and low pressure moves up the east coast this evening, expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to cover the entire region by ~16z. Ceilings are forecasted to lower to widespread IFR/LIFR after sundown tonight through the morning. Moderate rainfall will also develop over the area by this afternoon and evening, with brief breaks overnight before another round of rain in the morning. Majority of the instability should remain offshore and therefore don`t expect any thunder to affect terminals. Light northeast winds this afternoon quickly veer to southwesterly after sundown as the surface low moves across the Carolinas. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR likely through Saturday afternoon as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas. VFR expected Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR conditions could return Tuesday as a cold front approaches. && .MARINE... Have ended the Small Craft Advisory previously in effect as seas have dropped to below 6 ft, and NE/E winds of 10-20 kt are expected for the daytime period today as developing low pressure approaches from the SW. Conditions then ramp up for tonight, with seas returning to 6-7 ft, so have hoisted a new headline to account for this. S winds this evening will shift to the SW Sat morning, at 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt through late Sat as low pressure passes off to the NE. Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue through Saturday evening as west to southwest winds of 20-25 knots are in place with seas of 5-7 feet. Winds and seas subside considerably Sunday and Monday as a modest northerly flow evolves into a return flow of basically ten knots or so. The next marine threat arrives late Monday and Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. South to southwest winds increase to 15-20 knots for some time thus increasing seas to at or near small craft criteria. Finally an offshore flow develops by midweek. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MAS/SHK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.