Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190556 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 156 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface front will continue to shift southeast offshore tonight. Dry high pressure will build across the southeast United States Wednesday through Friday before shifting offshore Saturday. Moisture will increase over the area Sunday through Tuesday, accompanied by higher rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A weak cold front will continue to shift well offshore overnight, putting an end to shower and thunderstorm chances over land as drier high pressure shifts into the area. The prevailing low level flow will become more northwesterly and then northerly with time late. By the late night period, skies should clear out, with perhaps only passing high clouds. There are no significant fog concerns as drier air filters in from the north. In fact, precipitable water values are expected to drop down into the 1- 1.25 inch range by sunrise Wednesday. Lows are forecast to range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong upper level ridge will envelop the eastern half of the country Wednesday through Friday, allowing drier Canadian high pressure to spread southeast at the surface. A much needed period of rain-free weather will be the result. Surface dewpoints will drop into the mid-upper 60s for much of the period and cloud cover will be minimal until Friday when the surface high shifts east and low-level moisture increases. Temperatures will remain relatively warm on Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Thursday and Friday will be a few degrees cooler due to weak cold air advection from building high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The powerful upper level ridge is expected to shift east and become centered over the western Atlantic Saturday through at least the middle of next week. The accompanying surface high will also shift farther offshore, allowing a return flow to advect increasing low-level moisture into the area. There is the potential for a few weak shortwaves to rotate around the ridge Sunday through Tuesday. The prevailing onshore flow will also support daily sea breezes. Between the PVA associated with occasional shortwaves and daytime sea breeze activity, we anticipated isolated to scattered showers and tstms starting on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Convection has moved offshore and is no longer a threat at the terminals. A fairly weak northwest flow is expected to develop by daybreak and will allow drier air to slowly filter into the area. Am concerned about the possibility of some fog development before sunrise with lingering moist airmass, light winds and high soil moisture content / standing water. However, opted to keep it out for now, but will keep an eye on this. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the forecast period. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail through Saturday night due to dry high pressure building over the area. Increasing Atlantic moisture Sunday into early next week could result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak cold front will continue to shift offshore tonight with showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity early tonight. Winds will turn northwest in wake of the front, then north late while topping out at 10 kt. Current 2-4 ft seas will diminish to 2-3 ft over the waters tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Fairly quiet marine conditions are anticipated Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds over the waters. Reinforcing high pressure building from the north Thursday and Thursday night will produce a period of stronger NE to E winds over the waters. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible, though we currently do not anticipate Small Craft Advisories. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few 20 kt gusts may persist into Friday due to the enhanced coastal gradient with high pressure to the north. Quiet conditions will then occur Friday night through Sunday as the surface high shifts farther offshore and a weak onshore flow takes hold. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor flooding will be possible around the times of high tide through the end of the week due to elevated tides and an increasing flow of inland freshwater through the Cape Fear River. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...99 MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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