Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230214 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1014 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through tonight, with tropical moisture streaming into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. After the cold front passes by Thursday morning, look for a much drier regime, as cool fall air settles into the area by the weekend. && .UPDATE...
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Some minor adjustements to pops but overall the forecast remains on track.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Scattered convective activity will continue this afternoon ahead of a cold front, which is on tap to enter Darlington and Marlboro counties close to 00Z. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, but should be weakening with both the loss of daytime heating as well as upper support. For now the far western CWA remains in a slight risk for severe weather per SPC, as there is potential for an isolated storm or two to produce damaging wind gusts. The front is expected to reach the coast of NE SC around 06Z, but slow down as the mid/upper low begin to lift to the north. It may take until 12-13Z to finally clear out of the Cape Fear region, which would result in perhaps a 10 degree spread in min temps tonight. Inland is expected to dip into the low 60s overnight, but the SE NC coast should stay in the lower 70s ahead of the front. High pressure will build across the Mid- Atlantic region Thursday and Thursday night, with cooler and dry wx through the remainder of the near-term period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry and lovely forecast for the short term period. Plenty of sunshine to open the first weekend of astronomical fall. Could have a couple of cumulus and cirrus clouds on Saturday with another trough swinging through just to the north, but overall, the column stays very dry. In fact, precipitable water values dive below three- quarters of an inch, which is about half of what it usually is for this time of year. Highs Friday in the upper 70s, increasing slightly to near 80 on Saturday. Lows in the low-to-mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet forecast continues through the long term period. High pressure lingers over the Southeast before eventually pushing offshore by Tuesday into Wednesday. Airmass slowly modifies, as high temperatures eventually transition into the mid 80s, with lows dipping into the lower 60s. Sunny skies continue through this period. Some uncertainty by Wednesday, as forecast guidance doesn`t know what to do with a trough that swings down from the Great Lakes region. The GFS is the most bullish at the moment, and if it verifies, could see rain chances come back into the forecast by the middle of next week. But for now, keeping the dry regime. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect MVFR conditions through the overnight hours as plenty of low level moisture continues to reside over the area. Also expect some brief thunder from west to east with a cold front moving across the area. VFR conditions will develop quickly across western areas in the wake of the front and be a little more deliberate along coastal areas especially ILM. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate into the weekend after cold frontal passage early Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday Night...Have expanded the Small Craft Advisory to include the waters from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, and will leave it in place up to Surf City, through 6 AM. Early afternoon buoy obs in the Cape Fear area waters indicate seas of 6-7 ft north of Little River inlet, as well as wind gusts of 25 kt to as high as 33 kt at JMPN7. Scattered showers and a few tstms will continue through the afternoon and overnight hours, along and ahead of a cold front. The front is expected to push off the coast of NE SC after 2 AM, then slow down, not pushing off the coast of Cape Fear until around sunrise or just after. With fropa will come a rapid shift to northerly winds, as well as an end to the precip. High pressure will build in from the west, and will maintain northerly flow through Thursday night. Speeds should diminish THursday late morning into afternoon, then increase back towards 15 kt Thursday night. Friday through Sunday...Northerly flow at 10-15kts continues through Saturday night, before winds become more variable by Sunday, slowing down to 5-10kts. Seas 2-3ft at the coast Friday increase to 3-5ft 20nm offshore. Seas generally decrease by Friday night, creating 1- 2ft waves at the coast and 2-3ft waves out 20nm from shore by Saturday. The decreasing continues through Sunday, with 1-2ft waves found all along the marine zones. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...IGB/CRM

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