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000
FXUS62 KILM 251748
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
148 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will bring slight cooling today, and onshore
winds. As this feature dissipates, temperatures will climb well
into the 90s Sunday into the upcoming week. Slight rain chances
late tonight and again Monday night, but no widespread rainfall
expected much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1000 AM Saturday...No major changes necessary to the
previous forecast.

Previous Discussion...As of 330 AM Saturday...Weak cold front
slipping down the coast will shave off heat intensity today compared
to the record-setting day yesterday, as maritime breezes overspread
the area in wake of the faint but temperature- impacting
feature.

Convergence, heating, and marginal moisture could spark an isolated
shower or TSTM this afternoon, with plenty CAPE available, but the
desert-like air above 14 kft the main inhibitor. Tonight moisture
will deepen as weak MCV perturbations drop in from the WNW, and have
maintain isolated TSTMs for late tonight.

Low and mid level drying during Sunday will shut down rain chances,
and in wake of exiting short-wave energy, re-amplification of the
upper ridge, and return to hot conditions, particularly with the
expected downslope wind, upper 90s many spots so another blazer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Massive mid level ridging continues to
elongate and push slowly southward as some shortwaves begin to
albeit slowly weaken the system. However the subtle changes are
not enough to break the intense heat with highs expected in the
middle to upper 90s and or allow for convection although there
is spotty activity depicted by the GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...The extended period consists of much of
the same and even a brief resurgence of the ridge Tuesday and
Wednesday before what seemingly has been a semi permanent stormy
trough makes a move eastward. By next weekend a full fledged
westerly flow should be in in place further increasing pops
albeit in a very methodical pace. Temperatures remain very warm
with highs well into the 90s and steamy lows in the 70s. Some
downward trend is noted in the temperature guidance late in the
period with the subtle pattern change and increasing in shower
and thunderstorms activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 18Z...A one day reprieve from the hot weather, with
mainly easterly flow this aftn. Some isolated convection is
possible late this afternoon and evening. Coverage will be
limited however and not widespread enough to include mention in
the TAFs. Other item of note is the potential for low
cigs/vsbys near the coast tonight with moist, weak onshore
flow. Confidence is not particularly high but did include at
least a few hours of MVFR at the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR into next week. Slight chance
MVFR each morning in low stratus/fog, or isolated TSTMs.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM Saturday...In wake of a weak cold front, winds to
change, onshore, N-NE-E-SE today, so a veering of wind in the
cards, but no advisories as the system is weak. Inshore gusts
near 20 knots in middle afternoon. Wave spectrum will see onset
of NE waves 2 ft at 3- 4 seconds, with residual SSW waves
dampening out this morning. As winds turn to S and SW tonight,
the upstream fetch should bring seas up to 3 feet, in SE waves
every 5-6 seconds. Sunday winds SW seas 2- 3 feet. An isolated
TSTM possible late tonight NC waters.

Persistence and summertime forecast for the marine
community. With Bermuda High Pressure once again the dominant
feature a primarily southwest flow will be in place. Speeds will
be 10-15 knots mostly on the lower end of the range during the
day but the nocturnal jetting increase is beginning to show up
with overnight speeds leaning toward the higher end of the
range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/MAS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS/43
MARINE...