Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241345 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 945 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east across the region through Monday. A cold front will move into the area Monday night and off the coast Tuesday. The front will be accompanied by a period of unsettled weather. Another cool area of high pressure will dominate the weather for much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM Sunday...Period of benign weather will continue through the near term period. High pressure is centered across northeastern NC this morning and it will continue to move off to the east through tonight. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper low moving into southwest IA and northwest MO with weak ridging aloft across the southeastern United States. The generally west to east flow into the region will primarily act to spread some thin high clouds across the area. Near full insolation will support afternoon highs a category or so above normal. However, cool SSTs and inland heating should cause enough of difference to allow a sea breeze to develop. The resulting light onshore wind will keep afternoon highs much cooler at the beaches. Very light return flow will cause tonight`s lows to be much higher compared to early this morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Strong warm advection Mon will push temps well above climo and may lead to some isolated low-level convergence showers developing in the morning, especially near the NC coast. Rainfall chances ramp up after midday as surface based instability increases and heights fall ahead of shortwave rotating through the broad 5h trough. Shortwave helps induce weak low along slow moving front, with both features moving into and across the area late Mon night. The low and the front start getting ahead of the shortwave by the time they reach the area, which may lead to weakening of convection as it moves across the forecast area. In fact it looks like the strongest PVA won`t arrive until after the surface low and front move offshore. Still plan to carry likely pop but not quite sold on categorical at this point. Clouds and moisture linger through Mon night with light rain/drizzle continuing until almost daybreak before surface and mid-level subsidence start to dry things out. Despite cold advection starting Mon night, lows will still end up well above climo. Cold advection continues Tue and Tue night with Canadian high building in from the north as another sharp shortwave passes southwest of the area. There may be a brief reprieve Tue afternoon with heating helping to offset cooling. Precipitable water drops from around 0.75" Tue morning to 0.15" Wed morning, suggesting very little in the way of cloud cover from midday Tue on. Temperatures Tue and Tue night will be well below climo with potential for temps near freezing late Tue night. Wind speeds should remain in the 5 to 10 mph range, negating most of the radiational cooling impact. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Mid-level pattern will transition from troughing at the start of the period to weak shortwave ridging by the weekend. Another shortwave digging over the Southeast helps develop 5h low off the FL coast Wed into Wed night. This feature will be slow to move away from the Southeast coast, but will remain too far offshore to have any direct impact on the region. -Main concern during the period will be potential for freezing temps Wed night. However, winds overnight will be 4 to 8 mph. -Temperatures well below climo early in the period will trend upward as air mass modifies with above climo temps by the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 12Z...High pressure will drift to the east today bringing southerly winds around 5-10 knots with a few gusts near 15-20 knots. Overnight, increased moisture from the south will help to develop a mid-level altostratus deck before the end of the period. No significant impacts expected; VFR throughout the period. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions into Monday. Monday night, a cold front will move over the area creating possible MVFR conditions. VFR Tue evening through the rest of the week. && .MARINE... As of 945 AM Sunday...Light and variable winds with seas 2 ft or less noted in the latest marine observations. High pressure is centered across northeastern NC this morning and it will shift offshore through tonight. The wind will turn to a southerly direction as the high migrates toward the east and the sea breeze will aid in some veering as well initially across the near shore waters. No major changes with seas around 2 ft through tonight given the weak pressure gradient. Confidence is increasing that some sea fog is possible during the early morning hours Monday, but still not confident enough to include in the forecast. Southwest flow will increase during Mon as gradient becomes more defined with speeds a solid 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas build from 2 ft Mon morning to 3 ft Mon night. Offshore flow develops late Mon night as cold front moves east of the waters. Slowly developing low along the front offshore combined with high building in from the north will veer winds to north-northeast Tue and increase speeds to 20 to 25 kt Tue afternoon. Gradient remains pinched Wed and Wed night with northeast flow 20 to 25 kt, and possibly higher at times, into Thu before the high starts to weaken/retreat and gradient relaxes. Extended period of strong northeast flow builds seas to 4 to 6 ft by Tue evening with seas peaking 4 to 8 ft Tue night through Wed night. Although northeast flow starts to weaken on Thu, prolonged nature of strong northeast flow will keep seas over 6 ft through the end of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...21

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