Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221006 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 606 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Hot, humid and breezy conditions will continue through today, with heat indices reaching above 100 degrees. A cold front Tuesday will bring cooling and a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures below normal will overspread the region middle through late week in wake of the unseasonably strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 600 AM Monday...Another hot and humid day across the Coastal Carolinas, but relief is in site beginning Tuesday. Will begin to lose the thermal ridge with h5 heights just beginning to descend, but not enough to make much of difference. Winds through the low levels will not have a great westerly downslope component so do not think we will push our temps to near records, but overall, will go with persistence for today and continued hot and humid conditions. Gusty SW winds will reach up to 20 to 25 mph as pressure gradient tightens with approach of cold front, and especially along the coast where sea breeze will add to it. As far as a heat advisory, conditions look most favorable where the greatest dewpoints will be drawn inland with sea breeze, meeting up with hot temps, mainly just inland of the coast. Farther inland, I-95 corridor and west, the dewpoints look like they will decrease enough this afternoon as heat rises to allow for heat indices between 100 and 105. Also, should clouds increasing across inland areas to dampen the sunshine. Therefore will go with heat advisory for eastern portion of forecast area north of Georgetown county. May need to adjust later on. Breezy and mild conditions will continue into Monday night with low temps continuing above normal, in the mid 70s to near 80 closer to the coast. Moisture will be on the rise through late today. Included potential for Iso convection along sea breeze this aftn, but may be too dry still. Overall, expect convection to be focuses along inland trough later this afternoon into this evening. Once heating cuts off, expect convection to come to an end tonight. Clouds, showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise on Tuesday as deepening mid to upper trough pushes cold front through the Carolinas. SPC has local area outlined in marginal risk, especially in areas with greatest sunshine through early Tues adding to an already moist and unstable column. Precip water values increase up around 2 inches Tues with low level winds increase up to 20 to 30 kts. Decent mid to upper level support with decent shear should support stronger to severe storms with main threat of damaging winds Tues aftn into Tues eve. Storms should move quickly so should see quicker bursts of torrential rain in shwrs/tstms. High temps in the upr 80s to near 90, && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...A rather strong cold front will be making its way across the area Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing but the thunder and or severe threat will probably be on the way down at the beginning of the period. A leading convective line, at least according to some of the higher resolution guidance will most likely have the severe threat. SPC has all of the area in a Marginal Risk for day two. Some residual rain showers will linger into Wednesday but amounts will be light. The cooler air will be firmly in place Wednesday with highs only in the lower 80s (some guidance is lower) and lows Thursday morning in the middle to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Expecting a relatively quiet extended period as the mid level trough fills and or moves off to the northeast. This will leave surface high pressure, centered in the Appalachian in control mush of the period. There may be a few showers develop along the sea breeze along coastal areas but those will be limited. Its also possible land breeze showers could develop in the sweet spot where the winds relax but residual cooler temperatures remain on land. This probably would be Saturday or Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures will recover through the weekend. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06z...VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. Boundary layer winds will be too strong to support fog into early this morning. Southwest winds will become gusty by mid morning. Only isolated convection is expected through the end of the forecast period due to lack of moisture. Extended Outlook...Better chances of flight restrictions Tue into early Wed as a front moves into and through the area with showers/tstms likely. Improving conditions are expected for the second half of the week. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM Monday...Still holding off on SCA as sustained winds remain in the 15 to 20 kt range, although gusts should reach 25 kts at times. Gradient will tighten as cold front approaches and moves through the Carolinas, reaching into the Coastal Carolinas late Tues. This will produce gusty S-SW winds today through Tues. Seas will reach up to 3 to 5 ft, but should remain below SCA thresholds into Tues. Overall, expect occasional gusts up to 25 kt with seas 3 to 4 ft most waters. Southwest winds will be in place initially but only for a few hours as a cold front moves across by Wednesday morning. The wind direction will then make the usual progression of west to north finally settling at northeast. Speeds during the transition will be rather light with the highest values with the southwest flow initially. A northeast flow of 10-15 knots with embedded higher surges will be in place most of the remainder of the period. Significant seas will be in a range of 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MJC/RGZ SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...RGZ/SHK

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