Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 061126 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 626 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build from the north and west through Tuesday bringing fairly seasonable temperatures. On Wednesday as the high moves offshore Wednesday into Thursday a warmup ensues. Moisture will also increase ahead of a cold front Thursday that will bring showers and storms on Friday. A trend towards dry and seasonable weather is slated for the weekend. && .UPDATE...
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No major changes with the latest update other than to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory as observations indicate visibilities mainly more than one quarter of a mile now across the entire forecast area. Should see any lingering fog dissipate quickly after sunrise.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Offshore low pressure will continue to move northeast away from the area allowing high pressure to build in with dry weather prevailing. The main concern is dense fog early this morning due to abundant low-level moisture in place from the recent rainfall. The expectation is that the fog coverage/intensity will generally improve through daybreak for most areas as a weak cold front moves through bringing some drier air and stronger winds which will help scour out the low-level moisture. Surface obs are still indicating dense fog lingering across the SC Pee Dee so we extended the Dense Fog Advisory a bit longer there. Otherwise, expect highs to get a bit above normal into the lower to mid 60s with breezy west/northwest winds gusting to near 25 mph at times into mid afternoon. Tonight: High pressure should build in with decent radiational cooling conditions except for some high clouds late. We trended the forecast a bit cooler, especially in the normally colder rural spots where some freezing temps are possible. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure settles across the NC Outer Banks on Tuesday. Locally this turns very light winds from easterly to southerly. There will also be a low amplitude mid level ridge just to our south keeping mid level flow zonal/westerly. Warm advection will be tempered/minimal and mixing shallow for highs generally in the low to mid 60s, perhaps a bit warmer due to full insolation. South to southwesterly flow strengthens slightly on Wednesday and a trough/warm frontal boundary (or two) appear to lift north across the area. The afternoon will readily warm to the low 70s away from the ocean. Cloud cover may increase to partly/mostly cloudy thresholds at times as forecast soundings show deep layer cirrus moisture as well as thin low level moisture with a deep layer of dry air between especially Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Turning active early in the period as sharp trough develops to our west and surface cold air dives into the Plains. On Thursday moisture will surge north across the Carolinas, the deepest of which may remain in the eastern Carolinas as the offshore ridging tries to hold on (which usually happens a bit longer than progged by models). Thursday night through early Friday night may feature a few rounds of precipitation as warm advection and height falls strengthen. A 300 mb jet streak will also develop across the Carolinas downstream of the main trough axis, though it`s a bit too early to tell which quadrant we end up under locally (early indications are for the right entrance, a favored area for deep layer ascent). Enough dynamics likely in place for a strong to severe threat but the lack of potential destabilization paired with a healthy inland advection of marine air should minimized the threat. Strong dry and moderate cool air advection over the weekend will bring full sun and near seasonable temperatures after the string of highs in the low/mid 70s beforehand. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Main concern for the 12Z TAF period revolves around fog/low clouds through around daybreak across SE NC and NE SC. Although visibilities are generally improving across the area low clouds will hang on a bit longer, especially inland at KFLO/KLBT, but should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. All sites should be VFR by around 14Z. West/northwest winds will pick up after daybreak and gust to near 20 kt at times into mid afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR except for possible flight restrictions early Wed and Thu mornings from fog and/or low stratus.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight...Some gusts to marginal Small Craft Advisory levels are possible this morning as a weak cold front pushes through followed by improving conditions later today through tonight under building high pressure. Tuesday through Friday.., High pressure initially over OBX to bring very light winds that will turn from onshore to southerly. Warm front lifts north across the area Wednesday but little change in conditions expected with respect to wind/seas. NE swells from storm off New England coast will be present in the wave spectra but the larger waves remain outside of forecast zones. Thursday the approach of a cold front and strong upper level system to tighten gradient and the SW winds though they should remain below advisory thresholds. Seas build Thursday into Friday not only in the increased persistence of the SW flow but also increased E to SE swell component around the southern periphery of a very large high in the West Atlantic; a Small Craft Advisory appears likely. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/MBB

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