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000
FXUS62 KILM 221006
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
606 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot, humid and breezy conditions will continue through today, with
heat indices reaching above 100 degrees. A cold front Tuesday will
bring cooling and a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday through
Wednesday. Temperatures below normal will overspread the region
middle through late week in wake of the unseasonably strong cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...Another hot and humid day across the
Coastal Carolinas, but relief is in site beginning Tuesday.

Will begin to lose the thermal ridge with h5 heights just
beginning to descend, but not enough to make much of difference.
Winds through the low levels will not have a great westerly
downslope component so do not think we will push our temps to
near records, but overall, will go with persistence for today
and continued hot and humid conditions. Gusty SW winds will
reach up to 20 to 25 mph as pressure gradient tightens with
approach of cold front, and especially along the coast where sea
breeze will add to it.

As far as a heat advisory, conditions look most favorable where
the greatest dewpoints will be drawn inland with sea breeze,
meeting up with hot temps, mainly just inland of the coast.
Farther inland, I-95 corridor and west, the dewpoints look like
they will decrease enough this afternoon as heat rises to allow
for heat indices between 100 and 105. Also, should clouds
increasing across inland areas to dampen the sunshine. Therefore
will go with heat advisory for eastern portion of forecast area
north of Georgetown county. May need to adjust later on.

Breezy and mild conditions will continue into Monday night
with low temps continuing above normal, in the mid 70s to near
80 closer to the coast.

Moisture will be on the rise through late today. Included
potential for Iso convection along sea breeze this aftn, but may
be too dry still. Overall, expect convection to be focuses
along inland trough later this afternoon into this evening. Once
heating cuts off, expect convection to come to an end
tonight.

Clouds, showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise on
Tuesday as deepening mid to upper trough pushes cold front
through the Carolinas. SPC has local area outlined in marginal
risk, especially in areas with greatest sunshine through early
Tues adding to an already moist and unstable column. Precip
water values increase up around 2 inches Tues with low level
winds increase up to 20 to 30 kts. Decent mid to upper level
support with decent shear should support stronger to severe
storms with main threat of damaging winds Tues aftn into Tues
eve. Storms should move quickly so should see quicker bursts of
torrential rain in shwrs/tstms. High temps in the upr 80s to
near 90,

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A rather strong cold front will be making
its way across the area Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing but the
thunder and or severe threat will probably be on the way down at
the beginning of the period. A leading convective line, at
least according to some of the higher resolution guidance will
most likely have the severe threat. SPC has all of the area in a
Marginal Risk for day two. Some residual rain showers will
linger into Wednesday but amounts will be light. The cooler air
will be firmly in place Wednesday with highs only in the lower
80s (some guidance is lower) and lows Thursday morning in the
middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Expecting a relatively quiet extended
period as the mid level trough fills and or moves off to the
northeast. This will leave surface high pressure, centered in
the Appalachian in control mush of the period. There may be a
few showers develop along the sea breeze along coastal areas but
those will be limited. Its also possible land breeze showers
could develop in the sweet spot where the winds relax but
residual cooler temperatures remain on land. This probably would
be Saturday or Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures will recover
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06z...VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. Boundary
layer winds will be too strong to support fog into early this
morning. Southwest winds will become gusty by mid morning. Only
isolated convection is expected through the end of the forecast
period due to lack of moisture.

Extended Outlook...Better chances of flight restrictions Tue
into early Wed as a front moves into and through the area with
showers/tstms likely. Improving conditions are expected for the
second half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM Monday...Still holding off on SCA as sustained
winds remain in the 15 to 20 kt range, although gusts should
reach 25 kts at times. Gradient will tighten as cold front
approaches and moves through the Carolinas, reaching into the
Coastal Carolinas late Tues. This will produce gusty S-SW winds
today through Tues. Seas will reach up to 3 to 5 ft, but should
remain below SCA thresholds into Tues. Overall, expect
occasional gusts up to 25 kt with seas 3 to 4 ft most waters.

Southwest winds will be in place initially but only for a
few hours as a cold front moves across by Wednesday morning. The
wind direction will then make the usual progression of west to
north finally settling at northeast. Speeds during the transition
will be rather light with the highest values with the southwest flow
initially. A northeast flow of 10-15 knots with embedded higher
surges will be in place most of the remainder of the period.
Significant seas will be in a range of 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ096-099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/SHK