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000
FXUS62 KILM 230214
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1014 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through tonight, with tropical
moisture streaming into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front.
After the cold front passes by Thursday morning, look for a
much drier regime, as cool fall air settles into the area by the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Some minor adjustements to pops but overall the forecast remains
on track.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered convective activity will continue this afternoon ahead of
a cold front, which is on tap to enter Darlington and Marlboro
counties close to 00Z. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front, but should be weakening with both the loss
of daytime heating as well as upper support. For now the far
western CWA remains in a slight risk for severe weather per SPC,
as there is potential for an isolated storm or two to produce
damaging wind gusts.

The front is expected to reach the coast of NE SC around 06Z,
but slow down as the mid/upper low begin to lift to the north.
It may take until 12-13Z to finally clear out of the Cape Fear
region, which would result in perhaps a 10 degree spread in min
temps tonight. Inland is expected to dip into the low 60s
overnight, but the SE NC coast should stay in the lower 70s
ahead of the front. High pressure will build across the Mid-
Atlantic region Thursday and Thursday night, with cooler and dry
wx through the remainder of the near-term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and lovely forecast for the short term period. Plenty of
sunshine to open the first weekend of astronomical fall. Could have
a couple of cumulus and cirrus clouds on Saturday with another
trough swinging through just to the north, but overall, the column
stays very dry. In fact, precipitable water values dive below three-
quarters of an inch, which is about half of what it usually is for
this time of year.

Highs Friday in the upper 70s, increasing slightly to near 80 on
Saturday. Lows in the low-to-mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet forecast continues through the long term period. High pressure
lingers over the Southeast before eventually pushing offshore by
Tuesday into Wednesday. Airmass slowly modifies, as high
temperatures eventually transition into the mid 80s, with lows
dipping into the lower 60s. Sunny skies continue through this
period. Some uncertainty by Wednesday, as forecast guidance doesn`t
know what to do with a trough that swings down from the Great Lakes
region. The GFS is the most bullish at the moment, and if it
verifies, could see rain chances come back into the forecast by the
middle of next week. But for now, keeping the dry regime.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect MVFR conditions through the overnight hours as plenty of
low level moisture continues to reside over the area. Also
expect some brief thunder from west to east with a cold front
moving across the area. VFR conditions will develop quickly
across western areas in the wake of the front and be a little
more deliberate along coastal areas especially ILM.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate into the weekend after
cold frontal passage early Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday Night...Have expanded the Small Craft Advisory
to include the waters from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, and
will leave it in place up to Surf City, through 6 AM. Early
afternoon buoy obs in the Cape Fear area waters indicate seas of
6-7 ft north of Little River inlet, as well as wind gusts of 25
kt to as high as 33 kt at JMPN7.

Scattered showers and a few tstms will continue through the
afternoon and overnight hours, along and ahead of a cold front. The
front is expected to push off the coast of NE SC after 2 AM, then
slow down, not pushing off the coast of Cape Fear until around
sunrise or just after. With fropa will come a rapid shift to
northerly winds, as well as an end to the precip. High pressure will
build in from the west, and will maintain northerly flow through
Thursday night. Speeds should diminish THursday late morning into
afternoon, then increase back towards 15 kt Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...Northerly flow at 10-15kts continues through
Saturday night, before winds become more variable by Sunday, slowing
down to 5-10kts. Seas 2-3ft at the coast Friday increase to 3-5ft
20nm offshore. Seas generally decrease by Friday night, creating 1-
2ft waves at the coast and 2-3ft waves out 20nm from shore by
Saturday. The decreasing continues through Sunday, with 1-2ft waves
found all along the marine zones.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None.
NC...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...IGB/CRM