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000
FXUS62 KILM 061126
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
626 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the north and west through Tuesday
bringing fairly seasonable temperatures. On Wednesday as the
high moves offshore Wednesday into Thursday a warmup ensues.
Moisture will also increase ahead of a cold front Thursday that
will bring showers and storms on Friday. A trend towards dry and
seasonable weather is slated for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
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No major changes with the latest update other than to cancel the
Dense Fog Advisory as observations indicate visibilities mainly
more than one quarter of a mile now across the entire forecast
area. Should see any lingering fog dissipate quickly after
sunrise.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Offshore low pressure will continue to move northeast away
from the area allowing high pressure to build in with dry weather
prevailing. The main concern is dense fog early this morning due to
abundant low-level moisture in place from the recent rainfall. The
expectation is that the fog coverage/intensity will generally
improve through daybreak for most areas as a weak cold front moves
through bringing some drier air and stronger winds which will help
scour out the low-level moisture. Surface obs are still indicating
dense fog lingering across the SC Pee Dee so we extended the Dense
Fog Advisory a bit longer there. Otherwise, expect highs to get a
bit above normal into the lower to mid 60s with breezy
west/northwest winds gusting to near 25 mph at times into mid
afternoon.

Tonight: High pressure should build in with decent radiational
cooling conditions except for some high clouds late. We trended the
forecast a bit cooler, especially in the normally colder rural
spots where some freezing temps are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure settles across the NC Outer Banks on Tuesday. Locally
this turns very light winds from easterly to southerly. There will
also be a low amplitude mid level ridge just to our south keeping
mid level flow zonal/westerly. Warm advection will be
tempered/minimal and mixing shallow for highs generally in the low
to mid 60s, perhaps a bit warmer due to full insolation. South to
southwesterly flow strengthens slightly on Wednesday and a
trough/warm frontal boundary (or two) appear to lift north across
the area. The afternoon will readily warm to the low 70s away from
the ocean. Cloud cover may increase to partly/mostly cloudy
thresholds at times as forecast soundings show deep layer cirrus
moisture as well as thin low level moisture with a deep layer of
dry air between especially Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Turning active early in the period as sharp trough develops to our
west and surface cold air dives into the Plains. On Thursday
moisture will surge north across the Carolinas, the deepest of which
may remain in the eastern Carolinas as the offshore ridging tries to
hold on (which usually happens a bit longer than progged by models).
Thursday night through early Friday night may feature a few rounds
of precipitation as warm advection and height falls strengthen. A
300 mb jet streak will also develop across the Carolinas downstream
of the main trough axis, though it`s a bit too early to tell which
quadrant we end up under locally (early indications are for the
right entrance, a favored area for deep layer ascent). Enough
dynamics likely in place for a strong to severe threat but the lack
of potential destabilization paired with a healthy inland advection of
marine air should minimized the threat. Strong dry and moderate cool
air advection over the weekend will bring full sun and near
seasonable temperatures after the string of highs in the low/mid 70s
beforehand.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Main concern for the 12Z TAF period revolves around fog/low
clouds through around daybreak across SE NC and NE SC. Although
visibilities are generally improving across the area low clouds
will hang on a bit longer, especially inland at KFLO/KLBT, but
should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. All sites should
be VFR by around 14Z. West/northwest winds will pick up after
daybreak and gust to near 20 kt at times into mid afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR except for possible flight restrictions
early Wed and Thu mornings from fog and/or low stratus.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Some gusts to marginal Small Craft Advisory levels
are possible this morning as a weak cold front pushes through
followed by improving conditions later today through tonight under
building high pressure.

Tuesday through Friday.., High pressure initially over OBX to bring
very light winds that will turn from onshore to southerly. Warm
front lifts north across the area Wednesday but little change in
conditions expected with respect to wind/seas. NE swells from storm
off New England coast will be present in the wave spectra but the
larger waves remain outside of forecast zones.  Thursday the
approach of a cold front and strong upper level system to tighten
gradient and the SW winds though they should remain below advisory
thresholds. Seas build Thursday into Friday not only in the
increased persistence of the SW flow but also increased E to SE
swell component around the southern periphery of a very large high
in the West Atlantic; a Small Craft Advisory appears likely.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/MBB