Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251056 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 600 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures and continued rain chances through Wednesday night ahead a cold front that will bring much cooler and drier air for Thursday through the weekend. Warm, moist air returns early next week ahead of the next disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread rain is accompanying the passage of a warm front across the eastern Carolinas this morning. Deep isentropic lift over the top of the frontal surface should end between 8-10 AM, gradually tapering precipitation off from west to east. Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley should lift the warm front up into the Mid- Atlantic region by this evening. With our area in the warm sector and mid-level moisture clearing out, it won`t take but a few peeks of sun to get temperatures to rise to 70 degrees or better in many spots inland from the beaches. An upper level disturbance moving along the coast tonight could cause the mid-level flow to back more southerly, with a possible resurgence of showers along the coast. The ECMWF is more bullish with this potential than the GFS. I`ve increased PoPs to 50 percent along the coast with only 20-30 percent chances forecast farther inland. Lighter surface winds tonight and high dewpoints could also trigger the development of fog. Temperatures may again rise into the 70s away from the beaches on Wednesday as mid-level moisture appears to wane during the morning hours. Shower chances may increase during the afternoon as the surface cold front, extending south from low pressure crossing the central Appalachians, approaches our area from the west. SPC has a small area of NC/VA highlighted for a marginal convective wind threat Wednesday, but it appears our wind fields will remain weaker this far south with comparatively little threat. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PoPs will linger into the early portion of Wednesday night as the cold front pushes eastward through the area. Without the support of deep-layer moisture, QPF should remain low if the SFC disturbance can squeeze out a few spotty showers. Clearing will occur quickly after the front traverses the area with skies becoming clear by Thursday morning. Cold, dry air advection will be noticeable during the day on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 50s, nearly 15 degrees cooler than highs on Wednesday. Sandwiched between high pressure to the SW and low pressure to the NE, Thursday will be clear and breezy with northwesterly winds approaching 10-15 mph. Winds will calm overnight to around 5 knots and this will limit the potential for significant radiational cooling. As such, morning lows will approach freezing, but a hard freeze looks unlikely. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper-level trough will be stationed over the eastern half of the country on Friday. With this trough in place, temperatures will remain below normal with WSW upper-level winds bringing the possibility of a few clouds. During the afternoon, models show a weak shortwave rounding the edge of the upper-level trough. This is likely to produce clouds across the area and may impact high temperatures on Friday, but no precipitation is expected. On Saturday, a slightly strong shortwave will follow a similar path over the central US and into the southeast. This disturbance will pull the upper-level trough even further south and this is likely to be the coldest day of the next 7 with highs near 50. Along with this shortwave, we are likely to see clouds increase over the area with a slight chance of showers as the vorticity maximum traverses the Carolinas. High pressure builds into the area on Sunday with weak upper-level ridging developing as the longwave trough finally slides toward the east. Warm return flow on Monday will bring above-normal temperatures and humid conditions into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ceilings, frankly are all over the place. Models suggest IFR conditions through much of the day, however pockets of VFR exist presently and may be also around much of the day. Warm southwest flow will move in this morning with warm air advection. Conditions should improve this evening. Extended Outlook...The approach and passage of a cold front will maintain the potential of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday morning. Otherwise VFR afterwards. && .MARINE... A warm front will lift north across the eastern Carolinas this morning, shifting winds to the south with speeds increasing to 15-20 knots this morning. The should cause a rapid increase in wave heights to near 6 feet along the outer portion of the coastal waters, and a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through this evening. Lighter southwest winds are expected overnight into Wednesday, but wind speeds should begin increasing again Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Cold front will move through the area on Wednesday night and breezy NW winds will build in behind the front as high pressure to the SW and low pressure to the NE lead to an increasing pressure gradient. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible during this time. During the day on Thursday, NW winds 15-20 knots will slowly decrease in intensity. Seas will approach 6 feet with decreasing periods as the offshore winds continue. Conditions improve Thursday evening and into Friday with seas 2-3 feet by Friday afternoon. High pressure builds south over the Gulf of Mexico and is likely to cause a surge in wind speeds with low pressure parked over the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...43 MARINE...TRA/21

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