Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251748 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will bring slight cooling today, and onshore winds. As this feature dissipates, temperatures will climb well into the 90s Sunday into the upcoming week. Slight rain chances late tonight and again Monday night, but no widespread rainfall expected much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1000 AM Saturday...No major changes necessary to the previous forecast. Previous Discussion...As of 330 AM Saturday...Weak cold front slipping down the coast will shave off heat intensity today compared to the record-setting day yesterday, as maritime breezes overspread the area in wake of the faint but temperature- impacting feature. Convergence, heating, and marginal moisture could spark an isolated shower or TSTM this afternoon, with plenty CAPE available, but the desert-like air above 14 kft the main inhibitor. Tonight moisture will deepen as weak MCV perturbations drop in from the WNW, and have maintain isolated TSTMs for late tonight. Low and mid level drying during Sunday will shut down rain chances, and in wake of exiting short-wave energy, re-amplification of the upper ridge, and return to hot conditions, particularly with the expected downslope wind, upper 90s many spots so another blazer. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Massive mid level ridging continues to elongate and push slowly southward as some shortwaves begin to albeit slowly weaken the system. However the subtle changes are not enough to break the intense heat with highs expected in the middle to upper 90s and or allow for convection although there is spotty activity depicted by the GFS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday...The extended period consists of much of the same and even a brief resurgence of the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday before what seemingly has been a semi permanent stormy trough makes a move eastward. By next weekend a full fledged westerly flow should be in in place further increasing pops albeit in a very methodical pace. Temperatures remain very warm with highs well into the 90s and steamy lows in the 70s. Some downward trend is noted in the temperature guidance late in the period with the subtle pattern change and increasing in shower and thunderstorms activity. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...A one day reprieve from the hot weather, with mainly easterly flow this aftn. Some isolated convection is possible late this afternoon and evening. Coverage will be limited however and not widespread enough to include mention in the TAFs. Other item of note is the potential for low cigs/vsbys near the coast tonight with moist, weak onshore flow. Confidence is not particularly high but did include at least a few hours of MVFR at the coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR into next week. Slight chance MVFR each morning in low stratus/fog, or isolated TSTMs. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM Saturday...In wake of a weak cold front, winds to change, onshore, N-NE-E-SE today, so a veering of wind in the cards, but no advisories as the system is weak. Inshore gusts near 20 knots in middle afternoon. Wave spectrum will see onset of NE waves 2 ft at 3- 4 seconds, with residual SSW waves dampening out this morning. As winds turn to S and SW tonight, the upstream fetch should bring seas up to 3 feet, in SE waves every 5-6 seconds. Sunday winds SW seas 2- 3 feet. An isolated TSTM possible late tonight NC waters. Persistence and summertime forecast for the marine community. With Bermuda High Pressure once again the dominant feature a primarily southwest flow will be in place. Speeds will be 10-15 knots mostly on the lower end of the range during the day but the nocturnal jetting increase is beginning to show up with overnight speeds leaning toward the higher end of the range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/MAS SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MAS/43 MARINE...

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