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000
FXUS62 KILM 251056
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
600 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and continued rain chances through Wednesday night
ahead a cold front that will bring much cooler and drier air for
Thursday through the weekend. Warm, moist air returns early next
week ahead of the next disturbance.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread rain is accompanying the passage of a warm front
across the eastern Carolinas this morning. Deep isentropic lift
over the top of the frontal surface should end between 8-10 AM,
gradually tapering precipitation off from west to east. Low
pressure moving through the Ohio Valley should lift the warm
front up into the Mid- Atlantic region by this evening. With our
area in the warm sector and mid-level moisture clearing out, it
won`t take but a few peeks of sun to get temperatures to rise
to 70 degrees or better in many spots inland from the beaches.

An upper level disturbance moving along the coast tonight could
cause the mid-level flow to back more southerly, with a possible
resurgence of showers along the coast. The ECMWF is more bullish
with this potential than the GFS. I`ve increased PoPs to 50 percent
along the coast with only 20-30 percent chances forecast farther
inland. Lighter surface winds tonight and high dewpoints could
also trigger the development of fog.

Temperatures may again rise into the 70s away from the beaches on
Wednesday as mid-level moisture appears to wane during the morning
hours. Shower chances may increase during the afternoon as the
surface cold front, extending south from low pressure crossing the
central Appalachians, approaches our area from the west. SPC has a
small area of NC/VA highlighted for a marginal convective wind
threat Wednesday, but it appears our wind fields will remain weaker
this far south with comparatively little threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PoPs will linger into the early portion of Wednesday night as the
cold front pushes eastward through the area. Without the support of
deep-layer moisture, QPF should remain low if the SFC disturbance
can squeeze out a few spotty showers. Clearing will occur quickly
after the front traverses the area with skies becoming clear by
Thursday morning. Cold, dry air advection will be noticeable during
the day on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 50s, nearly 15
degrees cooler than highs on Wednesday. Sandwiched between high
pressure to the SW and low pressure to the NE, Thursday will be
clear and breezy with northwesterly winds approaching 10-15 mph.
Winds will calm overnight to around 5 knots and this will limit the
potential for significant radiational cooling. As such, morning lows
will approach freezing, but a hard freeze looks unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper-level trough will be stationed over the eastern half of the
country on Friday. With this trough in place, temperatures will
remain below normal with WSW upper-level winds bringing the
possibility of a few clouds. During the afternoon, models show a
weak shortwave rounding the edge of the upper-level trough. This is
likely to produce clouds across the area and may impact high
temperatures on Friday, but no precipitation is expected. On
Saturday, a slightly strong shortwave will follow a similar path
over the central US and into the southeast. This disturbance will
pull the upper-level trough even further south and this is likely to
be the coldest day of the next 7 with highs near 50. Along with this
shortwave, we are likely to see clouds increase over the area with a
slight chance of showers as the vorticity maximum traverses the
Carolinas. High pressure builds into the area on Sunday with weak
upper-level ridging developing as the longwave trough finally slides
toward the east. Warm return flow on Monday will bring above-normal
temperatures and humid conditions into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ceilings, frankly are all over the place. Models suggest IFR
conditions through much of the day, however pockets of VFR exist
presently and may be also around much of the day. Warm southwest
flow will move in this morning with warm air advection. Conditions
should improve this evening.

Extended Outlook...The approach and passage of a cold front will
maintain the potential of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday
morning. Otherwise VFR afterwards.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will lift north across the eastern Carolinas this
morning, shifting winds to the south with speeds increasing to 15-20
knots this morning. The should cause a rapid increase in wave
heights to near 6 feet along the outer portion of the coastal
waters, and a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through
this evening. Lighter southwest winds are expected overnight into
Wednesday, but wind speeds should begin increasing again Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.

Cold front will move through the area on Wednesday night and breezy
NW winds will build in behind the front as high pressure to the SW
and low pressure to the NE lead to an increasing pressure gradient.
Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible during this time.
During the day on Thursday, NW winds 15-20 knots will slowly
decrease in intensity. Seas will approach 6 feet with decreasing
periods as the offshore winds continue. Conditions improve Thursday
evening and into Friday with seas 2-3 feet by Friday afternoon. High
pressure builds south over the Gulf of Mexico and is likely to cause
a surge in wind speeds with low pressure parked over the Canadian
Maritimes on Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/21