Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181121 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 721 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A front will cross the Carolinas today, exiting off the coast by Wednesday morning. This will usher much drier air into the region, with no significant precipitation expected this week as high pressure builds in from the north. Lingering effects of Florence will be felt for days to come as dangerous river flooding continues. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...Coastal Flood Advisory for downtown flooding has expired at 7am and area wide Flood Warning has been extended until 7pm on Wednesday. Mid-level s/w energy and a sfc frontal boundary will combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning. Once insolation commences this morning, the atmosphere will further destabilize resulting in additional thunderstorm activity. A few of the stronger storms could produce 30 to 45 mph wind gusts later this morning and aftn. In addition, rainfall amounts will generally run one- quarter to 1 inch with isolated hier amounts possible. The locations not within our Areal Flood Warning that runs thru 1015 AM today include...Williamsburg County and the southern half of Georgetown County. However, enough pcpn has fallen to warrant atleast a Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in the mentioned locations thru 645 AM this morning. Overall, POPs will run 30 to 50 percent today early this morning thru this afternoon then drop off from NW to SE as the front pushes off the Carolina coasts this evening and overnight. Models are similar in taking the drier air and infiltrating it across the local area this evening and pre-dawn Wed hours. PWS in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range or progged to drop to around or below 1 inch come Wed daybreak. A WELCOME CHANGE to say the least. Temps followed the consensus amongst the models with a 80s to around 90 for highs today and 70 to 75 for tonights lows with possible upper 60s along and west of the I-95 corridor where the drier air having worked in.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...The start to a dry period across the Carolinas, with a change in air mass, as high pressure builds in behind an exiting front Wed into Thurs. At the same time the mid to upper ridge will migrate across the Southeast taking up residence nearly overhead by Thurs night. A deep northerly flow will advect dry air into the area with pcp water values down less than 1.5 inches to start the day on Wed. These values will decrease further to less than 1.25 inches through the period as sfc high pressure continues to extend down from the north as it migrates eastward toward the coast. Overall expect dry and warm weather during the day with temps in the mid 80s both days, but a couple of degrees less on Thurs. Overnight lows will feel a bit cooler as lower dewpoint air will allow for greater diurnal swings with temps dropping below 70 many places inland Wed night and down into the mid 60s Thurs night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Mid-level high pressure will dominate the upper levels through Sunday. The 500 mb ridge Will shift south of the area and a weak front will be along the Virginia-North Carolina border on Monday. The precipitable waters are expected to be at or below 1.25" through Sunday. What this means is the chances for precipitation will be low with a slight increase on Monday afternoon. High temperature are expected to be in the middle to upper 80s through the period. With lows in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Scattered convection will occur early this morning, basically along and south of a line that runs from ILM to FLO. Mid-level support will aid in keeping this convection ongoing overnight into daylight Tue. Low level clouds will dominate the early morning terminal sites with only patchy fog possible due to winds staying active from the south at 5 to 9 kt. A cold front dropping southeastward during Tue combined with upper level dynamics that may be partly of Florence remnants, will keep the threat for showers and tstorms thruout the day on Tue. Could see residual clouds and early evening shra before the cold front pushes south of the area by the end of this period. After FROPA, winds will become NW-N at 4 kt or less with the threat for patchy ground fog at the end of the 24 hr TAF Issuance period. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR throughout the extended period due to ridging aloft and high pressure at the sfc keeping a lid on convection development. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Ahead of the sfc frontal boundary, the sfc pg will remain tightened with the sfc pressure pattern yielding S-SW winds 10 to 20 kt to start, veering to the WSW-WNW as the front pushes across the waters this aftn and early evening. And finally, further veering to the NW-NE after the CFP later tonight and pre- dawn Wed hours. Speeds at the end of the period will run 10 to 15 kt. Models may be under-estimating the dry surge after the CFP but for now will keep it at 15 kt speeds. Significant seas will be initialized in the 3 to 4 foot range with occasional 5 footers. As winds veer and become partially to mostly offshore later tonight, the seas will see a decline by atleast a foot come daybreak Wed. Dominant periods will run 6 to 8 seconds with an underlying small SE groundswell at 11 to 13 second periods. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...A sfc front will be crossing the waters Wed morning. NW winds behind the front will veer to N on Wed and will continue to shift around to the NE by Thurs and more easterly by Thurs night as high pressure builds down into the waters from the north and then migrates eastward. Winds 10 kts or less Wed morning will increase to 10 to 15 kts Wed night into Thurs. Seas on a downward trend to 2 to 3 ft through Wed will jump up a bit Wed night into Thurs, to 3 to 4 ft. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...High pressure will be over the coastal waters through the period. Winds will shift to the east and weaken to 5 to 10 knots on Fri into Sat. Seas will range generally in the 2 to 3 foot range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...DCH

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