Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 230139
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
939 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will follow a cold front this evening, bringing
fairly seasonable temperatures for the latter part of the week.
A storm system will approach over the weekend bringing a gradual
increase in rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to end any mention of rain over the area for
the remainder of the evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front to our west is quickly approaching the area. A line of
precipitation ahead of the front has just reached our western border,
and should clear our coastal counties around 6pm. Latest mesoanalysis
shows CAPE values around 1000 J/kg across our area, with elevated
effective shear values around 45-50 kts. Therefore the risk of an
isolated severe storm or two within this line remains, with strong
winds the main threat. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front
tonight, with lows in the low-to-mid 50s.

A negatively tilted upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will
continue to lift to the northeast, with surface high pressure building
in from the SW through Wednesday night. Clear skies tonight through
Wednesday night, outside of a few cirrus tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Max temps Wednesday near climatology, with lows Wednesday night
slightly below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure wedging in from the northeast on Thursday while mid
level ridge offshore leads to southwesterly flow. An expansive storm
system will be developing across the Plains, and it may lead to an
increase in moisture late Thursday night locally depending on how
the system comes together (more detail in the long term discussion).
Thursday will be seasonably mild while Thursday night will be a bit
elevated depending on how much cloud cover increase transpires.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models solutions vary considerably in resolving the split flow by
Friday, with some cutting off the southern branch feature over the
SWrn U.S. and others phasing both systems for a faster progression.
This complicates considerably figuring out when rainfall returns as
the phased solution means as early as Friday night whereas the
cutoff southern stream solution shows an almost entirely rain-free
weekend. Early insight from WPC discussions indicate that the
forecast should be trended towards the slower solutions and some
adjustments to the forecast are forthcoming this afternoon.
Specifically, will show a dry Friday and show POPs that ramp up
thereafter. Even the 12Z GFS has held on to its faster idea and
shows a deep Gulf connection and appreciable rains by Saturday. The
later part of the period/early next week also presents forecast
uncertainty as another pattern amplification appears likely but
there are considerable differences in where the trough/ridge axes
set up. This could even in part hinge upon how the weekend system
unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period with W to
SW winds of 5 to 10 KT expected to become W to NW overnight and N
during the day Wednesday. Winds could gust AOA 15 KT during the day
Wednesday.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR with possible MVFR/IFR from fog and/or
low stratus Fri morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front will push through the area tonight, with chance of
thunderstorms within offshore waters through this evening. Clear skies
and dry weather behind front through Wednesday night as high pressure
builds in from the southwest. Winds will remain elevated through
tomorrow afternoon between 15 and 20 kts, with southwesterly winds
tonight veering to northerlies by tomorrow afternoon. May see some
gusts of 25 kts, especially overnight behind the cold front. Seas 3
to 4 feet this evening through tomorrow afternoon, mostly wind chop.
Waves S 4 ft every 5 seconds tonight becoming 3 ft every 4 seconds
from the N tomorrow, with a NE swell of 1 ft every 10 seconds.

Tomorrow afternoon, the pressure gradient relaxes as the surface high
builds over the area. Northerly winds decrease to around 10kts, with
seas dropping to around 2 ft, with a E swell of 1 ft at 11 seconds.

Northeasterly winds expected on Thursday and Friday with high
pressure centered to our northeast. Thereafter there is considerable
uncertainty in the surface pattern and thus wind,waves, and the
resulting seas.  Wind direction should veer, but how much hinges
upon the next storm system that will approach from the west. The
faster solutions will favor more of a direction change and
ostensibly an increase in speed as well. There are also many models
that cut off the southern branch feature and thus make its eastward
progress much slower. This would lead to a less dynamic late period
over the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MBB/VAO


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