Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 242335
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A low-pressure system will lift northeast across the Carolinas
tonight. This may bring a line of strong thunderstorms across
the area in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. A cold front will
cross the coast Saturday, bringing a drying trend and slightly
cooler weather into the area Saturday night through much of the
upcoming week. A few brief showers are expected with a weak
disturbance migrating to the east on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks made to POP grids. Else, previous near term
forecast on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Hazards Overnight: 2% tornado probability, 5% straightline wind
damage, in a `Marginal" environment for severe weather.

A line of showers with isolated TSTMs will begin to take shape by
7pm, reaching the far inland zones by 9pm. The line will progress
eastward to a KMYR to KCPC to KEYF line at 1am, then from KSUT to
KILM to Burgaw at 3am, and offshore of the SE NC coast around 4 am.

The CAPE fields are not eye-popping or impressive, generally 400-700
J/kg, but the effective shear and storm motion could lead chances of
wind damage in any embedded convection that becomes taller than its
surroundings. NAM-12 shows 0-1km helicity of 250-350 m2/s2 and
MLCAPE > 300 J/kg overlapping, along and ahead of the eastward
progressing line. The SPC has calculated a 2% percent chance of a
tornado, and a 5% chance of wind damage for our area. Because this
line will impact the area late night, it is advised to make sure
weather radio alarms are set and ready.

Frontal passage just behind the line brings W winds Saturday and
drying trends beginning in the morning, the downslope flow before
the best cold air advection arrives, should allow max-T Saturday to
warm into the low 60s over the eastern 1/3 land zones, aided by
downslope wind flow and sunshine increases, upper 50s well inland.

Clear, cooler Saturday night, widespread 30s on tap for min-T, but
very few spots will dip to or below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Deep W-NW flow on the back end of storm system moving across New
England will maintain dry and seasonable weather through
Sunday, but shortwave rotating around through the Carolinas Sun
night will increase cloudiness and may produce a bit of pcp
before exiting off the coast on Monday. Temps should run in the
mid 50s for highs both Sun and Mon and overnight lows Sun night
should run a bit above climo, within a few degrees of 40, due to
increase of clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another shortwave and weak sfc feature swings through Mon night
into Tues. Looks like it may bring a wind shift from W to NW and
bit of drier air for Tues. Another storm system should reach
the Carolinas Tues night into Wed with increasing clouds and
rain chances. High pressure should return for Thurs, but yet
another storm system may affect the area by late Fri into the
weekend. With such a progressive flow and active southern
stream, the forecast could be off in timing of these features
especially as we head through later next week. Temps should
remain near normal through much of the period with clouds and
pcp causing some fluctuations, especially with low temps coming
out a bit above normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions likely through early tomorrow
morning as a cold front approaches the area. MVFR ceilings
currently cover most of NE SC, with low stratus intermittently
affecting MYR and CRE. Low ceilings will spread northeast
through tonight, with widespread VFR likely before sunrise
tomorrow. Scattered showers across the area currently. A line of
showers currently across western NC down to central SC will move
across the area tonight into overnight hours. Isolated
thunderstorms possible with the line, with low chance of strong
winds. Line will be off the coast by 12z tomorrow. Mostly clear
skies tomorrow, with chance for afternoon low clouds inland.
Current SE winds quickly veer to westerly overnight behind the
front, with winds and gusts decreasing.

Extended Outlook...VFR should rule most of the weekend after
a cold front passes offshore and high pressure rebuilds. Some
restrictions are possible on Monday as a weak frontal system
impacts area with scattered rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Advisories are posted for small craft vessels, as a potent storm
system rakes the waters tonight and early Saturday. Seas of 4-8 feet
are expected tonight and early Saturday, highest offshore. A few
TSTMs may turn severe over the waters, as a cohesive line of showers
and isolated TSTMs moves offshore of NE SC between 1pm and 2am, and
off the SE NC coast 3am-5am. The advisory will linger through
morning for the SC waters as sea heights decrease, while it may take
most of the day for the NC waters before sea drop below 6 ft. The
advisory is expected to be dropped by Saturday night, with improved
marine conditions Sunday, and especially early next week, as light
and moderate offshore winds prevail.

Offshore flow will continue Sun through Mon on back end of
storm system moving from the Great Lakes through New England. A
shortwave rotating around through the Carolinas Mon into Mon
night may produce a slight increase and backing of winds to the
W-SW ahead of it and veering of wind to the N-NW behind it come
Mon night into Tues. Overall expect winds of 5 to 15 kts with
seas 2 to 4 ft much of Sun through Wed. Another storm system may
affect the waters by late Wed possibly driving northerly winds
up close to 20 kts and seas up closer to 3 to 5 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for AMZ254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MJC/RGZ



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