Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 080753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
353 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest today.
Dry weather and pleasant temperatures are expected for the end
of the week as high pressure builds in from the north. Moisture
returning from the south Sunday night into Monday will lead to
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.


Latest surface analysis shows the cold front well offshore, with
showers and thunderstorms lighting up along the Gulf Stream.
Meanwhile, back on land, the last of the heavier showers is
currently pushing through the Cape Fear region, and will soon exit
offshore within the next 30-45 minutes as of this typing (3:30 AM
EDT). More widely scattered showers trail behind it, traversing
through the SC Pee Dee region. Most forecast guidance has struggled
with the location and timing of these showers, but the FV3 WRF seems
to have the best idea. As these showers push out, we should have a
lull in the activity this morning, particularly inland.

Current trends are already showing some weak low pressure form along
the offshore front, though this is tracking off towards the ENE. By
early this afternoon, another weak low should form near the GA/SC
coast (this is best represented by 300-305K isentropic analysis,
though it`s still subtle). As this tracks northeastward, it will
provide another increase in rain chances by late this afternoon,
with most of the attention turned towards Williamsburg and
Georgetown Counties. Most everybody else should be dry at this
point. Winds are already out of the NNW, which will help to usher in
cooler, drier air throughout the day. Highs only hit near 80 inland,
upper 70s at the coast.

Shortwave spinning down from the base of the upper low ushers in a
deeper layer of dry air this evening, eliminating some of the pesky
rain chances near the coast for good. Skies clear out tonight, and
winds become nearly calm. This sets up a nice radiational cooling
scenario (in June??) for the overnight temperature drop. Lows
tonight in the mid-to-upper 50s inland, lower 60s at the coast.
Knowing how good radiational cooling can operate in the infamous
"cool spots" in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties, wouldn`t be
surprised if some of these spots went down to the upper 40s. Time
will tell!


Region will be under the influence of mid-level troughing for the
end of the week. This will keep afternoon temperatures a little
below climo despite sunny skies Fri. Highs closer to climo on Sat as
the surface high moves overhead. No rain chances either day with
weak mid-level subsidence creating an abundance of dry air.
Precipitable water will be down near 0.75" for much of Fri and Sat,
only approaching 1" Sat night. Dry air, clear skies and light to
calm winds will allow lows to drop well below climo Fri night.
Mostly clear skies continue Sat night, but light southerly winds
will lead to lows a little closer to climo.


Mid-level flow starts to amplify Sun as 5h low ends up cutting off
over the Great Lakes. There appears to be 2 distinct shortwave early
in the long term. The first is a weaker southern stream entity
arriving late Sun night, enhancing upward motion late in the day.
The wave brings moisture with it, precipitable water jumps to around
1.8 inches late in the day, but the timing may be a bit too late,
especially for coastal NC counties. Better rain chances expected Mon
into Mon night with a second shortwave. This one rotates around the
5h low over the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front with it.
Precipitable water remains around 1.8" Mon into Tue, but the second
wave is stronger, providing more lift and the lapse rates are
steeper. Pretty weak low level wind field ahead of the front with
the jet struggling to reach 30 kt. However, there is a brief window
where the shear is just high enough to support organized convection.
Forecast SBCAPE is around 2k J/kg at this time, so certainly
something to keep an eye on.

Front moves across the area Tue morning with high pressure and mid-
level dry air spreading over the Carolinas. Subsidence in the wake
of the exiting shortwave should keep Tue dry while the exit of the
5h trough Tue night into Wed helps prolong the period of subsidence,
contributing to a dry Wed and temperatures running a little above
climo after being near climo for the start of the week.


Surface cold front is now well offshore, with only some trailing
light to moderate showers pushing through parts of the SC Pee
Dee region to north of Cape Fear. KILM, KFLO, and KLBT stand the
greatest risk at capturing some -RA over the 06-07Z timeframe,
which may bring only brief issues of 6SM visibilities. The very
occasional rumble of thunder persists, but certainly nothing
scary enough to include TSRA anywhere. From there, expecting a
lull in the activity, before another bout of more widely
scattered showers from the WNW come into the picture later this

Outside of a direct hit from a heavy shower during the 12-15Z
timeframe, terminals should remain VFR, and winds will remain
generally light and somewhat variable in a weak pressure field.
Mid-level (VFR) ceilings are expected to linger through much of
the day Thursday. Ceilings should start to lift even more
Thursday evening, as skies begin to clear out.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through Sunday. Threats
to the flight categories come back Sunday night and especially
Monday, as another cold front sweeps through the area.


Through Tonight...
NNE winds will become more varying throughout the day, not
really getting a chance to eclipse 10kts. A few 3ft waves out
20nm from shore might be seen over the next few hours, but
overall, the trends are decreasing to mostly 1-2ft seas
throughout this period. Two main swells out there.....a
southerly one at 5-6 seconds, and a ESE one at 7-8 seconds.

Friday through Monday...
Surface high building in from the west-northwest Fri will move
overhead on Sat, with light northeast flow on Fri becoming light
and variable Sat. Weak gradient on Sat will allow the sea
breeze to become the dominant feature, with enhanced onshore
flow near the coast. The high gradually shifts east early next
week, with light southerly flow setting up Sun before becoming
southwest and increasing Mon. Potential for winds 15 to 20 kt
later Mon as the gradient become more defined ahead of a cold
front. Seas 2 to 3 ft into the start of next week will start to
build in response to the increasing south to southwest winds.
Sun night there is potential for 3 to 4 ft seas with widespread
4 and isolated 5 ft seas possible Mon. An east to southeast
swell will be the dominant wave into next week before a
southwest wind wave starts to become dominant on Mon.




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