Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 151703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1236 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

High pressure offshore will build back toward land, limiting
shower and thunderstorm activity to isolated in coverage. Above
normal temperatures are expected for much of this week.


As of 1100 AM Monday...Temps into the mid 90s most places by
late morning, and forecast to reach between 94 and 98 most
places, except along the beaches. This will combine with high
humidity to produce heat indices that could result in heat
illnesses. A heat advisory will remain in effect until 7 pm.

Building high pressure aloft and southerly wind flow at ground level
will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s.
Afternoon max temperatures in combination with dew points in the low
to mid 70s, will result in afternoon heat indices up to 105+ for
many locations.  Heat illnesses are possible for those spending time
outdoors during the hours of 12 PM to 7 PM this evening.

Model soundings show plenty of instability through the profile today
with convective temperatures being met or exceeded, which will
likely lead to isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms during
the peak afternoon heating. Latest short term high resolution
guidance also hints at precipitation development, but with lack
of upper level wind, storms are not expected to be severe.

Another very similar day on tap for Tuesday with elevated afternoon
heat and chances for pop up showers and thunderstorms.


As of 3 AM Monday...Surface and mid-level ridging will maintain hot
and humid conditions. There will be an overall lack of diurnal
convection due to subsidence aloft and mid-level dry air. Cannot
rule out an isolated weak afternoon shower or thunderstorm,
especially along the sea breeze, but activity will be limited in
strength, duration and coverage by the unfavorable environment.
Limited cloud cover and 850 temps around 20C will contribute to
highs in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast while lows will
run in the mid to upper 70s.


As of 3 AM Monday...Weakness in mid-level ridge Thu, due to passage
of 5h shortwave to the north, will fill in as the 5h ridge starts to
expand late in the week. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the end of the weekend, but highest coverage is
anticipated Thu and Fri. Coverage will gradually decrease over the
weekend as the ridge aloft strengthens and mid-level subsidence/dry
air becomes more pronounced.

-Mid-level ridge and Bermuda High will contribute to temps above
climo along with elevated humidity.

-Heat advisories may be needed for portions of the forecast area
each afternoon.

-Lack of significant mid-level or surface features (due to the
 5h ridge) will keep showers/thunderstorms diurnal in nature.


As of 18Z...Weak high pressure in control with VFR conditions
expected through tonight. Very dry conditions above 800mb. Mainly
fair weather Cu will pop up this afternoon. An isolated shower is
possible along the resultant this afternoon. Ground fog is possible
before sunrise on Tuesday. More hot and dry weather in store for

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any isolated
to widely scattered convection the first part of the upcoming week.


As of 1100 AM Monday...Mainly quiet conditions offshore for the
next 36 hours with waves between 1 and 2 feet with main
direction from the southwest between 4 and 6 seconds and
northeasterly swell between 9 and 11 seconds. Occasional onshore
wind gusts up to 15 kts during the afternoon and evening.

Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow through the end of the
week and for the start of next week. Speeds will run 10 to 15 kt
into the middle of the week before developing Piedmont trough
tightens the gradient. Starting Thu speeds will be closer to 15
kt with occasional gusts around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft into the
midweek period build to 3 to 4 ft for Thu and Fri. Seas will be
a mix of southerly wind wave and easterly swell, with the
southerly wind wave period gradually increasing late in the


SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-



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