Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 201951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
351 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Low pressure aloft over the Tennessee Valley will slowly cross
the Mid-Atlantic States Sunday then move offshore Monday. High
pressure will build over the Southeast from the west later today
through Sunday, shifting overhead Monday. The high will linger
through the middle of the week before shifting offshore late in
the week as the next system approaches from the west.


As of 345 PM Saturday...Main feature of the period will
continue to be wrapped up mid-level trough. The trough will
slowly move east-northeast, from the KY/TN Valley today to just
east of the Delmarva Peninsula as the period ends. Shortwave
rotating around the low/trough has been helping fire scattered
showers this afternoon, something which may be repeated Sun
afternoon. Wave this afternoon appears stronger and has more
moisture with it than the one on Sun. Remains to be seen if it
will be able to overcome the low level dry air and weak mid-
level lapse rates. At this point high resolution guidance is
split but radar trends across eastern GA and southern SC suggest
some cold air convection may brush the area, mainly along and
west of the I-95 corridor. Deep mixing will also help surface
gusty winds, as high as 30 mph through the afternoon hours. Any
showers that do develop will quickly dissipate with the loss of
heating this evening. Winds and wind gusts will also abate with
the loss of heating while skies should clear out. Light
southerly flow overnight and drying mid- levels will allow for
at least some radiational cooling and lows will likely end up
below climo.

Cold advection comes to an end on Sun with weak warm advection
setting up later in the day. Advection will not make much dent in
temperatures, which will end up below climo again. The cold start
combined with potential for afternoon cloud cover will keeps highs
capped in the upper 60s to around 70. Currently do not have any
mention of precip Sun afternoon given the limited coverage this
afternoon and the wave being weaker and earlier tomorrow.


As of 345 PM Saturday..."Snap-back" low-amplitude upper upper
ridge to unfold this period as remaining cool pool aloft scoots
off to the NE. The consequences result in a sensible weather
warming trend that shows Monday near to a bit below normal and
Tuesday rising above normal.


As of 345 PM Saturday...`Fair and Warm`, disrupted by a cold
front dropping in from the NW Thursday and Friday, set to bring
showers and a few TSTMs then. Prior to this plenty 80s, several
degrees above normal. Dynamics aloft with frontal system not
looking strong but the zonal to WNW steering flow could direct a
few TSTMs into a robust sea breeze front, potentially serving
as a pulse mechanism. Clouds, rain, weak cooling, so not as warm
Friday and Saturday.


As of 18Z...Upper low will move slowly northeast through the
forecast period. Steep lapse rates have spawned a lot of cu. Any
precip will likely be north of our CWA, however LBT could see a
brief shower around max heating. Winds will be predominately
offshore. Light winds tonight and Sunday.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions thruout the extended as the center
of high pressure parks across the Eastern Carolinas.
Potential for MVFR from morning fog Tue and Wed mornings.



Strong southwest flow will gradually weaken tonight into Sun as
the gradient starts to relax. Speeds will drop from a solid 20
kt to 15 kt or less by daybreak. The reduction in speeds will be
followed by a slow, but steady decrease in seas. Small Craft
Advisory will remain in effect tonight, but anticipate seas
dipping under 6 ft early Sun. Winds will remain 10 to 15 kt Sun,
dropping under 10 kt and becoming northwesterly Sun night. Seas
3 to 5 ft Sun morning drop to 3 ft or less by the end of Sun

Monday Through Thursday...

Summerish pattern, in moderate SW wind. Orientation of the ridge
may cause wind direction to tend toward W at times, overall wind
speeds 16 kt or less, the exception a few stronger gusts near
shore during the peak of the sea breeze middle/late afternoon.
Wind direction to tend close to SSW in afternoon heating near
shore. The wave spectrum will feature light to moderate SW
winds-waves and weak SE swell.


NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Sunday for NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-



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