Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 160000
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
700 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pull away to the north overnight with drier
and cooler air in its wake. Increasing northwest winds will
bring clearing and blustery conditions Friday. Tranquil and
clear weather will highlight the weekend, while dry cold
frontal passages maintain seasonably cool temperatures next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...No significant edits required of the
gridded forecast in place, did increase sky cover for the
evening period a bit more, based on current night-time imagery,
but maintained the drying/clearing trend into early Friday. With
overcast conditions most of the evening, temperatures will
remain level or fall only slowly, until partial clearing and
stronger CAA work in late, with cooling air into first light,
middle/upper 30s inland, breezier 40s by the coasts.

As of 345 PM Thursday...Latest model analysis and water vapor
imagery indicated a shortwave trough of low pressure sliding
across the Ohio River valley, which was bringing uplift and
streaming moisture into the Carolinas. Surface warm front that
passed through the area this morning brought heavy rain and
low cloud cover to many areas across the area.

Radar returns have lessened as cold front passes through this
afternoon. Afternoon temperatures range from 60 at Southport,
NC to 45 at Florence, SC behind the front. As skies clear out
tonight behind the front, expecting temperatures to drop into
the mid to upper 30s for many locations, especially west of
the I-95 corridor. Some locations may experience some patchy
frost by early morning.

Pressure rises expected tomorrow as high pressure returns
Friday. Highs across the region tomorrow will reach the mid to
upper 50s, which is about 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year. No precipitation expected tonight or Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...Looking at a pcpn-less and dry fcst
with only few to scattered clouds passing overhead thruout this
period as both Gulf Moisture and Atlantic moisture remain
basically untapped. An elongated longwave low amplitude upper
trof to dominate this period with the trof`s axis remaining west
of the FA. Flow aloft will basically be zonal or westerly. The
FA will be under the influence of both the northern and southern
jets, as they both cancel one another in terms of potential CAA
or WAA. As a result, the cold temps will remain north of the FA
and the milder temps to remain just south of the FA. The
produces near normal temps for both daytime highs and nighttime
lows. The exception will be for Sat morning lows with various
model MOS guidance indicating atleast 1 Cat below normal which
gives widespread mid 30s away from the coast. The potential for
decent radiational cooling conditions could result in areas to
possibly widespread frost. Much too early to put up an advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...Longwave upper pattern continues to
display a low amplitude trof encompassing much of the U.S. with
upper ridging along the immediate west coast. Westerly flow
aloft starts out this period with dry and near normal temps
expected for Sunday. Models the past few days indicate an
impulse in the lower levels of the flow over the Atlantic off
the southeast U.S. Coast. Models indicate it making it`s turn to
the NW then N during Mon and to the NE by early Tue, finally
pulling away from the Carolina Coasts. Have indicated a short-
period of patchy light rain along the immediate coast Mon into
Mon night. A sfc cold front is able to push across Tue into Wed
with the aid of a mid-level s/w trof. Not much of CAA behind it
as flow aloft drops back to zonal. By the end of this period,
models hint of a pcpn event shaping up but just too far out in
time for specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 23Z...IFR dominates the TAF sites this evening. Satellite
loops show low clouds breaking up from the west, more so across
South Carolina than North Carolina. This fits well with latest MOS
guidance with moderate to high confidence VFR will develop 03-06Z
initially at KFLO then KLBT. VFR develops at KCRE/KMYR around 06z,
and lastly KILM around 09Z. Winds will be west northwest to
northwest through the TAF period 5-10 kts.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...Gusty west winds between 15 and 25 kts
expected tonight as cold front continues to move offshore. Gusts
could reach as high as 30 kts as high pressure filters into the
area, which will cause wave heights between 5 and 7 feet this
evening into the early Friday morning hours. As a result, the
Small Craft Advisory has been extended into early Friday
morning. Wind speeds and wave heights will decrease Friday as
more settled weather returns to the area, although wave heights
of 3 to 5 feet are still possible through the day.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...Benign wind conditions shaping up for
this period. The center of sfc high pressure will drop to the
Southeast States during Sat and become elongated across the
Carolinas just inland from the coast thru Sun. Winds this period
will initially be north thru northeast 10 to 15 kt then diminish
to around 10 kt Sat night thruout the majority of Sun.
Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft, except initially 3 to 5 ft
from Cape Fear north, and it`s makeup primarily from a
dominating easterly ground swell at 9+ second periods.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...A semi-active significant seas period
as long period ESE ground swell at 9+ second periods will
highlight this period. Winds this period will primarily have a
northerly trajectory but remain in the 10 to occasionally 15 kt
speeds. This could further increase slightly depending on the
movement and strength of the low level impulse moving around the
periphery of the Atlantic as explained in the public discussion
for this time period. Significant seas will run in the 2 to 4
foot range, primarily coming from the 9+ second period ESE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...MCK/Colby
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR



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