Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 210705
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
305 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous mid week as a cold front sags into the area from the
north before slowly dissipating Friday. The upcoming holiday
weekend looks unsettled as a tropical airmass brings the likelihood
for thunderstorms and possibly more heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Just a few showers off the coast tonight with
mainly mid to high clouds streaming over the Carolinas maintaining a
partly to mostly cloudy sky. Lighter winds tonight will drop to near
calm inland and expect good chance of patchy fog mainly inland and
potential for some stratus as moisture remains concentrated closer
to the surface. Temps will hold near 70 most places.

Atlantic ridge will build far enough west through today to
produce a relatively uneventful weather day. Expect mainly
diurnally driven shwrs/tstms associated with convergence around
western periphery of high and sea breeze boundary as it pushes
inland through this afternoon. The steering flow will be weak
once again out of the SW and becoming more southerly into the
eve. This could produce some localized ponding of water in any
heavier showers in aftn convection inland. Although mid to high
clouds will be present through today, expect to see some good
periods of sunshine, especially along the coast in the late
afternoon as sea breeze marches inland. Pcp water just around
1.6 inches this morning will begin to drop this afternoon as
drier air and increased subsidence pushes into the area from
S-SE to N-NW. Values along the coast will be down closer to an
inch late this aftn and will drop further inland into this eve
as ridge builds in. Once afternoon convection drops off as the
sun sets and diurnal heating comes to an end, showers will
dissipate and expect a fairly quiet, rain free night again Mon
night. Increased moisture begins to wrap around the ridge back
into the Coastal Carolinas again by Tues morning. Therefore
expect the potential for showers to increase once again by
Tuesday.

Temps will run a few degrees warmer today, into the mid 80s,
with increased subsidence and fewer clouds. Overnight lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The eastern Carolinas will be on the
western periphery of the Bermuda High which will slowly lose
its influence across the area late Wed and Wed night. This will
allow a cold front to the N to sag into the FA late Wed night.
Precipitable water values will be lower Tue than on Wed and with
greater ridging Tue, expect the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered. Will show the
higher POPs along and W of the seabreeze which should make
steady inland progress during the afternoon. The deepening east
coast trough along with the approaching cold front should spur
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the
greatest coverage expected during the afternoon and through the
eve. Did also highlight heavy rain risk as the moisture return
is through a deep layer and precipitable water values do surge
to near 2 inches.

Typical high temps for late May, lower to mid 80s although a few
upper 80s are possible inland Wed. Low temps however will be
considerably above normal. Normal lows for late May are in the
lower 60s. We are forecasting lows in the upper 60s and lower
70s during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A brief break in the pattern is forecast
Thu into early Fri as a mid-level trough digs into New England
driving a surface cold front into the area. Guidance is now
insistent that this feature will stall overhead Thu, which
seems likely based off the continued southerly flow impeding its
southern progress. This front in the vicinity will serve as a
focus for convection Thu, which combined with PWATs near 2
inches will likely lead to widespread showers with isolated
tstms. On Fri this front will waver/dissipate with another
round of convection possible, although coverage should be less
than Thu.

Thereafter, forecast becomes much more uncertain as a wave of
low pressure develops in the tropics. Most extended guidance
develops this low, but then tracks it slowly with highly
variable solutions. At this point it is far too early to
mention any tropical development, but it is likely that
tropical moisture pooling near Cuba will again lift north into
the Carolinas. This creates what at this point is almost a
broken record forecast - increasing rain and thunderstorm
chances with heavy rain possible during the Memorial Day weekend.

Temps through the extended will feature highs around to
slightly above climo, and lows well above normal as diurnal
ranges are limited by clouds cover and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR conditions to start with mainly mid to high clouds
streaming across the area. Counting on some MVFR to IFR conditions
early this morning with some fog and stratus development. Hit FLO
hardest with fog. After sunrise, conditions will improve to VFR by
about midday. Convergence associated with sea breeze boundary as it
pushes inland and around western edge of Atlantic ridge could
produce some MVFR ceilings in SHWR/TSTM mainly 15-19z coastal
terminals and 19-00z inland terminals. For now, showers and storms
are covered with vicinity in the terminal forecasts.

Extended Outlook...Some MVFR to IFR Fog and stratus possible again
Tues morning with sct aftn shwr/tstms to follow. MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions will increase late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold
front drops across the area and again next weekend as tropical
moisture returns.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Bermuda High will nudge westward through
today. This will maintain a southerly flow overall, but the
orientation of the high will produce a slight backing of the winds
from SW this morning to S-SW by tonight, remaining basically 10
kt or less. Seas 3 to 5 ft this morning will diminish to 2 to 4
ft by this afternoon into tonight. The sea breeze will kick
winds up a bit near shore this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Bermuda High pressure will gradually lose
its influence across the Carolina waters. This will allow a
cold front to the N to sag south and into the northern waters
late Wed night. S winds Tue will become SW Tue night and Wed. SW
winds Wed night will veer to a more westerly direction late and
to the NW across portions of the northern waters prior to sunrise
Thu. Wind speeds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 kt range.
Seas will be 2 to 4 ft, a combination of SE swell and wind energy.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A cold front will briefly turn winds to
the W/NW Thu before the gradient eases considerably as the front
wavers and then dissipates across the area into Fri. This
brings a period of light and variable winds Thu before easterly
winds develop Fri, becoming south late at 5-10 kt. Wave heights
will fall to around 2 ft Thu, and then remain there through the
end of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ


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