722
FXUS62 KILM 260311
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1011 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building across the Southeast will maintain dry
weather with slowly warming temperatures through Sunday. A weak
disturbance is expected to bring light rain chances on Monday.
Warmer weather is expected for Tuesday into Wednesday as the
next high builds in to our south, but a cold front pushing
through Wednesday night should bring chillier temperatures late
in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Patch of mainly thin cirrus passing across NC at attm.
Additional cirrus should track across both Carolinas overnight
into daylight Sun morning. This also looks thin overnight, with
the opaque cirrus holding off until daylight Sun. Should see
some decent rad cooling overnight with only very minor tweaks to
the current fcst, mainly with hourly T/Td/winds at the start
then massaging them to the overall fcst theme overnight.
SPS issued earlier, 458pm EST, to account for overnight re-
icing of the days melted snow/ice across area roadways, walkways
and etc.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure draped across the
Gulf coast and Southeast. Strong subsidence around this high created
a cloudless day, and highs have rebounded into the lower 50s this
afternoon. Snowpack continues to melt away, which you can watch fade
away on the visible channels on GOES-16. There appears to be a line
of leftover snow still remaining from northern Horry County up into
northwestern Pender County, but that`s about it. Patchy black ice
still likely in those exact spots tonight, but it certainly
shouldn`t be as widespread as it has been over the last few nights.
Lows tonight dip down into the low-to-mid 20s inland, near 30 at the
coast. Some of the typical cold spots in Bladen and Pender Counties
probably dip down into the teens again.

High pressure doesn`t move much through Sunday, except perhaps
pushing a bit closer to the Atlantic. The warming trend continues,
and highs should hit the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast guidance is coming into generally better agreement on the
occurrence of mainly light rain starting late Sunday night and
continuing at least through midday on Monday, with rain tapering off
from west to east in the afternoon. Gentle lifting via weak
isentropic upglide on the north side of a weak cold front which is
progged to settle southward on Sunday night will be the culprit for
this rain, with total amounts up to a tenth inch or so. Although
where the highest amounts of measurable rain falls is still somewhat
in question, with some models favoring the Pee Dee region more so
than Cape Fear, a cloudy and dreary day is looking more likely
across the region. As a result, PoPs have received an overall 15-20%
boost and high temps have seen a 2-3F drop compared to the
previous forecast, but it should be emphasized that precip rates
will be light.

Temperatures are expected to end up below normal, with low temps on
Sunday night in the low-mid 30s occurring early in the night before
lowering and thickening clouds cause temps to go steady or slowly
rise. On Monday, thick clouds and light rain will certainly limit
temps and while highs around 50F are forecast, it is possible that
temps end up staying in the 40s if light rain lingers through mid-
afternoon. Drying arrives behind the rain on Monday night as
subsidence aloft dries out most of the atmospheric column from the
top down. Low clouds may hang on until the tail end of the night, so
lows in the mid-upper 30s are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Nearly-zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure to our southwest
will keep a SWrly flow in place and yield, dare I say, relatively
warm weather through midweek as 850mb temps rise to around 10-11C on
Wednesday. This translates to highs in the low-mid 60s on Tuesday
and Wednesday and overnight lows around 40F. Differences remain
amongst the guidance in reference to a potent shortwave rounding the
base of troughing over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, but a cold
front is likely to slide southward on Wednesday night as heights
lower temporarily.

Behind this front, a shot of cooler and drier air is looking
somewhat more likely for late in the week, although the range of
possible temperatures shown by ensemble guidance is still unusually
large for Friday and Saturday as this will depend on how quickly the
troughing departs. 10th to 90th percentile highs range from the mid-
30s to low-60s on Friday and upper-30s to near 70F on Saturday. This
is further complicated by the timing and evolution of a significant
closed low ejecting out of the Desert Southwest, which may also
bring rain chances into the mix for the weekend as it shifts
eastward or northeastward, so the forecast is subject to
considerable changes in future updates until these features and
their futures become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF issuance period.
Patchy fog remains possible but confidence remains too low to
include in any of the terminals other than mentioning here.
S wind 5 kt or less early this evening will become SW-WSW less
than 4 kt overnight. As the center of the high sinks south and
then off the SE States Coast during Sun, SW-WSW winds will
increase to 5 to 10 kt. Cirrus, occasionally opaque, will affect
the area terminals thruout this 24 hr period.

Extended Outlook...Next chance of sub-VFR conditions will come
Monday when a cold front drops south across the Carolinas. Back
to VFR Tuesday through Thursday. A stronger but dry CFP to occur
by or during Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...WSW to SW winds at 5-10 kts continue with seas
locked in at 1-2 ft.

Sunday night through Thursday... High pressure southwest of the
waters will maintain a west to southwesterly flow through
midweek. A cold front is expected to shift southward on
Wednesday night and cause a wind shift to northwesterly with
offshore flow continuing through Thursday. Gusty winds on
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and elevated seas may
nudge into SCA territory in outer portions of the coastal waters
before the pressure gradient relaxes later in the night and
winds/seas subside. Otherwise, waves initially around 1-2 ft
through Monday gradually rise through midweek, peaking in the
3-5 ft range over Wednesday night before subsiding through
Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...IGB/ABW