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000
FXUS61 KILN 302342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
642 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance passing south of the area will spread a wintry mix
of precipitation near and south of the Ohio River tonight into
Tuesday morning. High pressure will then build in and persist
through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Seeing some very light drizzle/freezing drizzle in the shallow
moisture between the departing wave and the incoming wave. Have
added this to the forecast; though expecting little to no impact
outside of a thin layer of ice on cold objects such as
vegetation and metal objects (cars, fences, etc.)

The next round of precipitation pushes in from the southwest
late this evening. This will be aligned with low level
frontogenesis. This will result in a relatively narrow band of
precipitation which will move from northern Kentucky into
northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio. Much of this is
forecast to be snow, but forecast soundings suggest that there
could be some sleet and/or freezing rain at onset. Snow/sleet
accumulations will be less than an inch with any glaze being
very light. But with air and road temperatures falling, expect
this to cause slick roads. Thus have issued a winter weather
advisory for where impacts will be the greatest. Much of the
precipitation will occur between 03Z and 10Z but with impacts
expected to linger through the Tuesday morning rush, the
advisory extends through the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation will be exiting the southeast part of the forecast
area early Tuesday morning. This could end as a period of
freezing drizzle as there is the potential to lose ice within
the cloud.

Thereafter, high pressure will start to build in. Clouds will
start to erode in northern counties Tuesday afternoon with the
improving sky condition gradually working further south on
Tuesday night.

The high will bring a colder airmass. Highs will range from the
lower 20s to lower 30s while lows will be from around 10 to the
lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Much of the long term period is dominated by dry conditions.
Wednesday night through Thursday now has a dry forecast across the
south, however, the latest 12Z GFS and GEFS indicate small chances
of precipitation continue to hang on. Otherwise, the forecast is dry
through the rest of the week and into the first half of the weekend.
Ensembles are beginning to latch on to a Great Lakes shortwave
Sunday, resulting in a slight chance of precipitation to be
introduced. At this time, the most likely precipitation type will be
rain.

Temperatures start the long term period below climatological normals
for early February before a brief period of above normal values
Thursday as highs are in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A longwave trough
over southeastern Canada begins to influence the region by providing
below normal temperatures through the rest of the week and to start
the weekend. With a low pressure moving through the Great Lakes on
Sunday, temperatures trend back to above average through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Areas of very light drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible
early this evening. This will keep visibilities and ceilings in
the low MVFR range, possibly dipping below the IFR threshold at
times.

Another round of wintry precipitation will affect the
Cincinnati terminals, possibly getting as far north as KILN,
overnight. Expecting this to be primarily snow, although a mix
with sleet or freezing rain is not out of the question. After
this passes, persistent MVFR ceilings will likely continue...
though they could lift above 2kft late in the TAF period.


OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for OHZ079-081-
     082-088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for KYZ094>100.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...