Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 201938
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
338 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the southeast United States will allow dry,
mild weather to continue through this evening. A cold front will
provide showers and a few storms Thursday, then cool, cloudy
weather will persist behind the front through Friday. The next
system will bring precipitation back to the Ohio Valley late in
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure over the southeast United States will
quickly move off the Carolina coastline overnight. Mid and high
clouds will increase after midnight as a mid-level disturbance
quickly moves east from the central plains into the midwest. A
band of showers ahead of this disturbance will arrive to our
northwest counties by the end of the period. Temperatures will
stay mild overnight with the clouds and warm air advection, only
dropping into the mid to upper 50s by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The strengthening surface low shifts east into the Great Lakes
Thursday and onward into southern Quebec Thursday night. The
showers and storms accompanying the fast-moving disturbance
ahead of the front will affect most of the region from Thursday
morning in the northwest to early Thursday afternoon in the
southeast. While instability generally remains 200J/kg or less,
wind shear increases to around 30 knots in the lowest kilometer
of the atmosphere. Based on this, would think there could be a
few shallow storms with the potential for strong wind gusts
from late morning Thursday into early afternoon southeast of
Interstate 71.

The front makes it way through the CWA by Thursday afternoon,
with showers ending from west to east. Behind the front, low-
level moisture charts suggest we could see some breaks in the
clouds from the afternoon through evening hours; however,
increasing cold air advection will allow stratocumulus to
develop and thicken from late Thursday evening into the
overnight.

High temperatures will vary from the mid 60s northwest to the
low 70s southeast on Thursday as the front makes it way through
the Ohio Valley. Cold air advection Thursday night allows low
temperatures to drop into 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cooler airmass will continue to settle in across the region
through the day on Friday as a weak secondary surface trough pivots
down through our area. This could result in a few diurnally enhanced
showers, mainly across southern portions of our area. Otherwise.
with some lingering low level moisture, expect a fair amount of
clouds with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 50s. Weak
high pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area for
Saturday. We will remain on the cool side though with temperatures a
few degrees below normal and afternoon highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

A warm front will lift northeast into the region Sunday into Monday.
In the developing moist southwest flow pattern, expect to see
increasing chances for showers overspread our area through the
second half of the weekend.  There remain some differences amongst
the models as to how the forecast will progress Monday into Tuesday.
The 12Z ECMWF remains stronger with a secondary short wave moving
through the Midwest Monday into Tuesday and therefore stronger with
an associated surface low. Meanwhile, the GFS remains weaker with
this feature and generally allows for the frontal boundary to sag
slowly back to the southeast across our area, while the CMC is
somewhere in the middle of the ECMWF and GFS. With this uncertainty,
will generally linger some higher end chance pops through the day on
Monday and then hang on to some lower end pops through the remainder
of the long term period. Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will
depend on the northern extent of the warm front. Given the
uncertainty, will continue to trend toward the model blend with
highs on Sunday ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 in the
far south. Will then generally keep highs mainly in the 60s through
the end of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail today under lingering high pressure.
Increasing mid and high clouds tonight should prevent a repeat
of river valley fog at LUK, so expecting favorable weather
to continue.

A cold front will approach the terminals Thursday morning, with
scattered showers along and ahead of the front. Ceilings drop as
low level moisture increases along and behind the front, so have
MVFR cloud bases from mid morning through early afternoon.

Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few lightning strikes with
convection, but confidence here is lower so kept TS out for now.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Friday and Friday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hogue


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