Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 211745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1245 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm conditions continue through the work week. High
pressure will keep conditions dry today, but rain chances return
overnight into Thursday night with low pressure tracking through
the Ohio Valley. Temperatures drop into the start of the
weekend before quickly rebounding to well above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad area of surface high pressure shifts more towards the
Atlantic coast, having a weaker influence across the Ohio
Valley. Northwesterly flow aloft is advecting some of the mid
level clouds in from the Great Lakes region. This will provide
some cloud coverage today, but there will still be quite a bit
of sunshine to go around. With plenty of insolation and warm
air advecting in the lower levels, have continued to trend highs
above NBM guidance today. Most of our CWA will observe highs in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Westerly mid level flow with progressive shortwave and
associated surface low pressure tracking from the Central Plains
into the Mid MS Valley tonight and thru the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes Thursday. Low level jet of 35-40KT in the warm advection
wing will result in favorable moisture transport into our
northwest late evening into the overnight. Have chance pops for
showers developing and then increasing to likely late. Model
soundings indicate marginal elevated instability - so have a
mention of thunder northwest.

Surface low pressure to track thru the area Thursday with
trailing cold front pushing southeast thru the region late in
the day into the evening. Second low level jet of 40-45kt
continues to provide favorable moisture advection into the
region ahead of this front. Forecast Pwats increase to between
.8 and .9 inches which is above the 90th percentile for this
time of year. This has been a consistent signal. Pcpn chances
increase to categorical Thursday with moderate to heavy rain
possible. The progressive nature of the system will limit the
rainfall totals with QPF for the event of three quarters of an
inch to around an inch. Mild temperatures to continue with lows
tonight in the lower and middle 40s and highs on Thursday from
the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We`re looking at a more active extended period with a couple of
opportunities for precipitation.
Thursday`s low pressure system will be moving along the Ohio River
at the start of the period and rain will quickly taper off. A cold
air advection regime will be in place behind this system and be
moving into the area during the daytime on Friday (in fact, a
secondary, dry, cold front sags through the region Friday into
Saturday, dropping temperatures even more). As such, we`ll have a
noticeably cooler start to the weekend, however, we should remain
mostly dry.

We have another brief shot at precipitation Sunday night into Monday
as a weak surface boundary moves through. After this, our sights
turn to the upcoming work week, where we undergo a significant
warming pattern as ridging briefly moves over us. High temperatures
for the start of the work week are currently forecast to reach the
mid 60s. Behind this ridging, continue to stay active. Ensemble
guidance hints at a quick moving shortwave system with a more
potent/robust longwave system on its heels. However, guidance still
has quite a bit of variance both spatially and temporally with the
progression of these features. However, with that being said, the
Colorado State Machine Learning Probabilities indicate some
probability of severe around the Tri-State Tuesday- Wednesday. CIPS
Extended Analog Guidance also light up for severe, but further
west/southwest.

In addition to the potential convective threat, there may also be a
hydrologic component to keep an eye on. Right now, GFS and ECMWF
both hint at PWATS 3-5 sigmas above normal as ample moisture is
dragged up from the Gulf of Mexico. Definitely will be something to
keep an eye on as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions to start the forecast period with surface high
pressure still in place. Atmosphere continues to saturate
tonight ahead of an approaching surface low. Lower clouds begin
to build in tonight, with a complex of rain moving in overnight.
Some uncertainty with location/intensity with the rain
overnight, but there is the potential for thunder with this as
well. Will keep thunder mention out of the tafs until confidence
increases.

MVFR CIGs build in late tonight, with MVFR vsbys possible as
well with the rainfall. In the extended KCVG taf, highlight the
IFR CIG potential Thursday afternoon. Additional rounds of
rainfall expected to continue through the afternoon on Thursday.

Sustained southerly winds of around 10 kts or so expected today,
increasing to around 15 kts on Thursday with more of a SSW
component.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely with possible
IFR conditions Thursday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Clark


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