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000
FXUS61 KILN 191749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds and the
chance for severe weather today. A cold front will push east
across the area tonight. Cooler and drier air will work into
the region for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure influence`s
the region`s weather before warmer air and precipitation chances
return to the forecast for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Embedded short wave energy rotating northeast around an upper
level low over the western Great Lakes will induce a low level
jet which will move northeast across our area this afternoon.
Pcpn associated with this low level jet is currently across
western Kentucky, southeast Illinois, and southwest Indiana.

With a fairly strong wind regime in the low levels associated
with the low level jet, we still run the risk of wind advisory
criteria type wind gusts, around 40 knots, across much of the
region. However, clouds and light pcpn now encroaching our
western zones may limited heating and deeper mixing. Best chance
will likely occur near the I-71 corridor where more heating
will occur before pcpn moves in later this afternoon. For now,
will leave the Wind Advisory as is as it does not start until 11
am, and will reevaluate as the afternoon wears on. Will also
keep the SPS out for sub-advisory wind gusts across the far
southeast.

Attention then turns to severe weather potential. It is all
about the instability. Models suggest that as clouds thicken and
pcpn moves in, instability may be limited to MLCAPES of 500 to
less than a 1000 J/kg. This may limit severe potential as there
may be more embedded storms than likely storms. There is still
cause for concern due to the very strong low level wind flow
regime which would mean it will not take much to get 50 knot
gusts to the surface. Feel that if instability remains limited,
there should not be a big large hail threat. As for an isolated
tornado, can not rule it out with strong speed shear, although
directional shear is lacking.

Temperatures during the day today will be warmer across eastern
portions of the forecast area where it will take longer for the
precipitation to work into the region. High temperatures will
range from the middle 70s across western portions of the region
to the middle 80s across the east.

Going into the overnight hours tonight, the severe threat will
diminish. The wind gusts will decrease, however expect some wind
gusts to continue through this time. Went close to the blend for
temperatures and made only minor changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Much cooler conditions will be present for monday with high
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. With CAA expect cu field to
develop. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles, but decided to leave
the forecast dry for now. Although winds will gust at times on
Monday, expect wind gusts to be lower than Sunday. Wind gusts in
the 20 to 30 mph range will be possible on Monday, especially
across northern portions of the region near and north of
Interstate 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure extending across the area at the beginning of the
period will keep one more day of seasonal temperatures. A warm front
will lift into the area late Tuesday  night into Wednesday morning
as a short wave moves up the Ohio Valley. This will bring a chance
of showers and embedded thunderstorms.

In the wake of this system, upper ridging will develop north into
the region. This will bring a quick warm up as well as an increase
in dew points. Daytime temperatures will be well into the 80s, with
a few spots likely to reach 90, on Thursday and Friday with lows
only dropping back into the mid to upper 60s. A weak boundary may
drop into the region Thursday into Thursday night which could be a
focus for some convection.

00Z guidance suite is showing some discrepancies on strength of a
short wave riding over the top of the ridge heading into the
weekend. This affects the timing of a front dropping south out of
the Great Lakes. Have leaned towards a slower speed which would
bring a greater chance of storms to northern counties on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system
will move east into the western Great Lakes through this
evening. An embedded disturbance will rotate northeast around
the upper level trough, inducing a low level jet to push
northeast through our region. This will bring showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Instability is not that great (marginal)
and have backed off to predominate SHRA/-SHRA and a VCTS/CB.
Some local MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in the heavier
showers and where thunderstorms occur. Winds will remain gusty
outside of showers/storms.

For this evening, a cold front will move east into the region.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of it.

For the overnight, upper level trough and surface low will move
east across the Great Lakes. This will push the cold front east
through the remainder of our area. Precipitation will
shrink/decrease along/ahead of the front. Models continue to
indicate that MVFR ceilings between 1000 and 2000 feet will form
behind the front.

On Monday, our region will be in the CAA pattern behind the
front. It will remain a little gusty with west winds becoming
northwest. MVFR clouds should lift into a cumulus base between
3500 and 4500 feet between 16Z and 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>055-060>064-070>072-077>080.
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>097.
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Novak
NEAR TERM...Hickman/Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman