Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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749
FXUS61 KILN 201939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow over the Ohio Valley will persist through the
weekend, increasing on Sunday ahead of a cold front that will
cross the region early Monday. Storms will fire along and ahead
of the front, primarily overnight Sunday with a decrease in
activity during the day Monday as high pressure builds over
Illinois. This high will cross the Ohio Valley Tuesday and
southerly flow will return for the latter part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Isolated shower activity may still pose a threat to strengthen
this afternoon in some few locations and produce thunder at
times. The thunder threat will be waning relatively quickly but
a small shower threat will maintain itself this evening along
the I-70 corridor and then after midnight along and west of the
I-75 corridor. None of these showers will be significant with
any winds, just some beneficial rain at best.

Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s in the east and mid
60s in the west with south winds decreasing to under 5 mph
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will start with showers possible over northern portions
of the CWA then decrease in the late day as the source region
lifts northeast and out of the CWA. Southerly flow will persist
but dry air in place will not necessarily result in this flow
enhancing any storms that may be present with moisture
transport.

Cloud cover in the north will be eroded later in the day and
high temperatures will reach into the mid 80s for yet another
day. Overnight lows will be more uniform in the mid 60s with
a little stronger southerly flow at night.

&&

.LONG TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY /...

Warm and breezy conditions on Sunday are expected preceding a cold
front passage on Sunday night/Monday morning. Showers are possible
as the cold front moves through the area. Temperatures and humidity
values drop to near/slightly above normal during the beginning of
next week before a gradual warm up by the end of the week.

Highs in the upper 80s along with breezy southwesterly winds around
15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph are possible on Sunday as the cold
front approaches from the northwest. On Sunday night, a narrow band
of anomalously high PWAT values extends from the Great Plains to the
Ohio Valley ahead of the cold front, but weak forcing and limited
instability may limit substantial accumulations. Despite the weak
forcing, expectations are that a rather widespread area of showers
with possibly a few thunderstorms advances toward west-central Ohio
late Sunday evening. These showers continue eastward through the
overnight with intensity gradually decreasing toward late Monday
morning hours as the front moves through. The highest accumulations
(<0.50 inches) are forecast across west-central Ohio before the
general intensity decreases further east (0.10-0.25 inches).
Isolated showers are possible during the afternoon on Monday,
primarily across southeast Ohio before precipitation completely
clears the area.

After the cold front moves southeast through the region on Monday, a
cooler and drier air mass will move in. Cooler temps are felt during
the morning hours on Tuesday as temperatures drop into the mid 50s
which is normal for late September. Highs are expected to drop back
to the mid 70s to near 80 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread 80s
are likely to return by the end of the week as an anomalous ridge
for late September builds in. Rain chances are limited through the
rest of the forecast period if the extended pattern remains as
expected.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered cu may occasionally constitute a ceiling this
afternoon, particularly in northern TAF sites but even this
would be VFR conditions above 3kft. Removed MVFR fog at LUK and
ILN given it has not been in play for any of the past several
days. However, an increase in dewpoints may put some pre-dawn
fog into play tomorrow morning but this remains an outlier
solution.

Widely scattered shower activity will be possible today and
tonight just about anywhere, but coverage would not merit
inclusion in the forecast today, given they would likely be VFR
showers. This may be a different story tomorrow in central Ohio
and CMH/LCK TAFs that stand a better chance for activity at the
tail end of the forecast given a weak surface pertubation and
some better low level moisture transport from the west.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...McGinnis/Campbell
AVIATION...Franks



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