872
FXUS61 KILN 262246
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will be in place through
Saturday. An unsettled weather pattern will develop for Sunday
and remain in place through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CAA cu have developed across portions of the region. In
addition, some high clouds are still in place across primarily
southern portions of the region. Expect a general decrease in
cloud cover for the overnight hours. With cooler airmass in
place low temperatures are expected to drop down into the 50s
across most locations overnight tonight. There will be the
potential for some river valley fog again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions to the
region Saturday and Saturday night. Slightly warmer conditions
will be in place for Saturday and Saturday night with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 60s. A few cu and high clouds will
still be possible, however less than Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm, humid, and convectively active weather pattern is setting up
for next week.

On Sunday morning, a mid-level ridge axis will be very slowly moving
eastward. Relatively dry air, with subsidence, will be exiting the
middle Ohio Valley to the east ahead of this ridge axis -- and
copious moisture return on deep-layer southerly flow will be
occurring on the other side. From late Sunday through Monday, a
trough axis will extend from the upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley, focusing a broadly favorable convective environment over a
regime with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. This
moist air mass will persist through the week, with surface dewpoints
in the 70s from Monday through Friday. Finally, a generally
northwesterly flow pattern behind the initial trough will support
occasional chances for convection, rather than any kind of ridging
or capping. Thus, thunderstorms will be possible at times through
the entire extended forecast period.

Precipitation chances on Sunday look greater late in the day into
the evening, and mainly in the southwestern half of the forecast
area. By Monday, as the trough over the Great Lakes moves eastward,
precipitation chances will increase across the entire region. Monday
currently has the greatest precipitation chances of any day this
week, though part of that is temporal certainty, since Monday is a
little more clear than days further out in the forecast. Chances may
diminish slightly by Wednesday after the trough axis has passed the
area, but a more episodically active northwest flow pattern may then
take shape from the plains through the midwest. Confidence in any
forecast specifics beyond Wednesday is low.

With moist profiles and uncertainty regarding deep-layer shear, the
severe risk remains uncertain at this point. There could be some
potential for heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind on Sunday
and Monday, with MCS activity becoming more possible later in the
week. Confidence is too low to include in the HWO as of now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moving into the region results in mostly clear
skies during the overnight hours. As previously mentioned, river
valley fog is possible, so continued VSBY reductions at KLUK
during the late overnight hours. Winds out of the northeast at 5
knots or less.

Fog dissipates after sunrise. Winds shift to have a more
easterly component during Saturday, but remain under 10 knots.
Few to scattered cu linger throughout the day before high
clouds begin to spill Saturday evening ahead of the next system,
poised to arrive Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...CA