Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 152325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
725 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry weather will build into the Ohio Valley
tonight and persist through Thursday. A cold front will bring a
return of scattered showers and storms on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Axis of the h5 s/w has not crossed the CWA this evening but
should be through the area by midnight tonight. Isolated shower
activity will remain possible for the next 2-3 hours but be on a
continued decrease with the loss of sunshine. Models are
consistent in keeping a band of s/w energy off of a Lake
Michigan fetch (conceptually) that would continue to interact in
the CWA until the trough passes. Do not think that showers are
likely from this, but cloud cover under this upward motion will
be more persistent this evening, particularly from a Hamilton-
Lebanon-Wilmington line extending nnw through Richmond, Union
City, and Arcanum. Another significant bit of clouds are found
east of Wilmington and spreading out from Hillsboro to London
and Columbus-Buckeye Lake southward to Piketon and Jackson.

The second batch of cloud cover east of ILN will stand the
larger chance of seeing a passing shower (very isolated - not
something to count on unless you`ve just washed your car). This
is due to the energy crossing south through the region this
evening.

Adjusted the forecast to include more isolated to scattered
showers over a wider area, but this will quickly wane this
evening. Cloud cover will be a bit more difficult to remove
early on, but should rapidly clear in the late evening for a
generally clear overnight period.

Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s by early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will continue building into the region on
Wednesday, with the high center reaching the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night. Under clear skies and rather light winds,
temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s Wednesday
afternoon, then drop into the lower 50s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry conditions will be in place for Thursday.  Moving into Friday a
more unsettled weather pattern develops.  There are still quite a
few model differences with strength, phasing, and timing for Friday
moving into the weekend.  A system will move into the region on
Friday and then stall out near or south of the forecast area. Moving
into Sunday the boundary lifts back north.  A cold front will then
move through Monday into Tuesday.  This will allow for off and on
shower and thunderstorm chances.

Cannot rule the potential for some severe thunderstorm or flooding
chances with these frontal boundaries in the vicinity, however
decided to leave out of the HWO at this time until there is more of
a signal with strength and timing.

Breezy conditions will be possible at times especially on Friday
with some wind gust around 30 to 35 mph outside of storms.
Temperatures will be in the 80s for most days until the final
passage of the frontal boundary.  High temperatures generally in the
70s are expected for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
What few showers are around this evening will be pesky for LCK
terminal through 01Z but then cloud cover with CU bases 5-7kft
and a bit more AS solidly covering 10kft shows a marked decrease
from 03-06Z in favor of clear skies. The cloud cover may last
longer at DAY/ILN and then CVG/LUK as a bit of streamwise energy
looks to keep at least some clouds over them this evening. It
is doubtful that what cloud cover is lingering beyond 06Z will
be affecting the TAF sites. Regardless, VFR conditions will
prevail and clear skies with a north wind approaching 10kt
during peak heating of the afternoon is in store for the region
tonight and Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Franks


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