Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KILN 190213
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1013 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area overnight, offering dry
weather and below normal temperatures. The high will move slowly
east, continuing to provide dry weather on Tuesday. The next
chance of rain is forecast for Wednesday into the first part of
Thursday as the next frontal system moves through the area. This
system will be followed by another period of dry and seasonable
weather for the end the week under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Under a northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure will build
across the region tonight. Diurnal cumulus will transition to
altocumulus and should gradually diminish in coverage for the
most part. These clouds will mix in with a little cirrus late.
Northwest to north winds will become light/variable or calm.

Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal with
lows ranging from the lower/middle 20s north to the mid/upper
20s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure to build east of the area by Tuesday
night. Expect a good deal of sunshine with mainly high level
clouds over the area Tuesday. Temperatures will be a little
warmer on Tuesday with highs from the mid mid to upper 40s in
the north to the lower 50s south.

Mid level flow backs westerly with a southerly low level flow
developing as the surface high builds over the east coast. Expect
an increase in WAA mid and high level clouds late Tuesday night
ahead of the next system. Expect lows from the upper 20s to the
lower 30s with readings steadying out late.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Wednesday morning, an area of surface high pressure will extend
from the mid-Atlantic coast through the southeastern states, having
passed through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Large-scale troughing
over the eastern half of the country will still be in place, with
two shortwaves moving into the region -- two features which will be
the main focus for the weather on Wednesday into Thursday. A sharp
mid-level trough will move southeast through the upper Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday afternoon, weakening somewhat as it moves into
the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, another trough will move into
the Great Lakes later on Wednesday, though only somewhat coming into
phase with the initial trough. Southerly boundary layer flow is
expected at the surface ahead of this system, which will bring warm
advection, and max temps on Wednesday that should reach well into
the 50s -- likely upper 50s in the southeastern sections of the
forecast area. Though there have been some differing solutions
regarding the strength of the initial trough, the 00Z/12Z ECMWF runs
have come more in line with the past several days of GFS runs,
producing enough forcing (and moisture advection ahead of the
feature) to bring a decent chance of rain to the area on Wednesday.
PoPs have been increased by about 10-20 percent as confidence in
this scenario is gradually improving. No signs of any threat for
heavy rain, but perhaps couple tenths of an inch based on current
model projections.

A surface cold front will follow these features early Thursday
morning, shifting winds to the northwest and bringing some modest
cold advection through Thursday and Friday. Though precipitation
associated with the Wednesday / Wednesday night shortwaves will
likely be moving out of the area ahead of the cold frontal passage,
there are some indications that light showers or drizzle may persist
in the mixed cold advection pattern behind the front during the
first half of Thursday. To make an initial attempt to account for
this, some low-end PoPs were retained a little further into
Thursday. There are also some indications that another shortwave
will move through the Great Lakes early on Friday, but with
differing depictions on if it will get far enough south to bring any
precipitation to the ILN forecast area. This will be kept out of the
grids for the time being.

Rather, the bigger story for the end of the week will be the
presence of an expansive area of surface high pressure, originating
in the northern plains. This surface high will envelop the area on
Friday and likely continue to influence the weather through at least
Sunday morning. Though boundary layer flow will remain relatively
light, the dry conditions and reduction in clouds should allow for
gradually warming conditions heading through the weekend. The degree
of warming is a little bit uncertain, as the GFS does maintain some
more potent northwesterly flow, and the ECMWF is a little quicker
with bringing the next trough eastward out of the plains.
Nonetheless, temperatures should increase into the middle to upper
50s on Saturday, and lower 60s on Sunday -- several degrees above
normal for late March.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

Under a northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure will build
across the region tonight. Diurnal cumulus will transition to
altocumulus and should gradually diminish in coverage for the
most part. These clouds will mix in with a little cirrus late.
Northwest to north winds will become light/variable or calm.

On Tuesday, our region will remain under a northwest flow aloft
while surface high pressure also remains across the region.
Diurnal mixing will result in west winds between 5 and 10 knots
along with some diurnal cumulus clouds between 4000 and 5000
feet.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night. MVFR ceilings may possibly linger into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.