Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260007 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 807 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will approach overnight and move through during the day on Saturday bring shower and thunderstorm chances to the region, especially during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. A few additional storms will be possible Sunday and Monday with a warm and humid airmass present. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Clear skies this evening will see some thin cirrus blowoff passing over the southwestern CWA from upstream storms over IL. These storms over IL will slowly traverse east overnight and scattered showers and thunderstorms will encroach on OH by daybreak in response to the upper level shortwave inching closer to the region. Did not make changes to temps/dewpoints other than to blend observed values into current forecast. The highest precipitation chances will be across western and northwestern portions of the forecast area closer to the disturbance. With the increase in cloud cover overnight only expect temperatures to drop off into the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An upper level disturbance will move through during the day and into the evening hours on Saturday. This will act as a focus for thunderstorm development during this time especially during the afternoon and early evening hours with peak daytime heating. Expect most locations to see some precipitation at some point during this time and therefore went pretty high on precipitation chances. Guidance values support this decision as well. Precipitation will keep temperatures a little cooler on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Precipitation will begin to taper off overnight. With light winds, a subtle surface boundary washing out across the region Saturday night, and the recent precipitation that is expected to fall during the day on Saturday, expect some patchy fog to develop overnight Saturday night especially northwest of Interstate 71. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The period begins with a weak H5 trof over the nern U.S. On Sunday H5 ridging will start to build in from the mid MS Valley. However a weak boundary in Kentucky will keep the low level moisture pooling, which could allow a pop-up storm to develop. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. By Monday, the models bring a tropical low into the nrn Gulf of Mexico. Moisture on the nrn edge of this system could be enough for a spotty storm to pop-up on Memorial Day, but overall dry conditions are expected with highs in the upper 80s. The H5 ridge continues to build over the region Monday night into Tuesday, as the tropical low make landfall in the Gulf Coast states. Kept Tuesday dry as capping looks to suppress and storm development. Models begin to diverge for Tuesday night into Wednesday in their handling of the tropical low and its pcpn. The ECMWF and Canadian bring the low up over the region Wednesday night into Thursday, while the GFS swings it to the south through TN. Went with a blended solution this far out, but leaned towards the ECMWF/Canadian solution. Kept PoPs in the chance category for now. The rain chances and cloud cover will hold temperatures down in the mid 80s on Wednesday and the lower 80s Thursday. By Friday, the center of the system is pulling off to the east, put it has left nw flow over the Great Lakes, which keeps the chance of storm development over the region. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the better part of the overnight hours. Some shower activity and embedded thunderstorms may affect the region towards daybreak, but the better upper level dynamics and instability with moisture increase won`t happen until the daylight hours on Saturday. Used VCSH to cover the early chance of showers with a few lower stratocu clouds topped by a mid level deck. The latter morning hours will see the upper trough cross into Ohio and a subsequent increase in storm coverage. Given a lack of well-defined boundaries, did not prevail thunderstorms given that showers will be prevalent at times through the day, along with scattered thunderstorm activity in more well-defined areas of stronger upward motion. Expect VFR conditions to prevail outside of thunderstorm activity tomorrow and a rapid improvement by late evening as the upper forcing moves east and away from the terminals. OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.