Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180725 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1104 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 Sky condition has become the main uncertainty for the update. Expected low cloud development has deviated a bit from what was expected. The new 00Z NAM seemed to have at least some handle on what was happening (more so than the forecast in place), and it has been blended into the forecast for tonight into early Wednesday. However, confidence is not high. UPDATE Issued at 812 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 Winds have diminished and will no longer be a headline issue tonight. Have blended latest obs into the forecast, and also updated forecast sky cover based on 18Z model runs. && .SHORT TERM...
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412 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 Gusty westerly winds developed through the afternoon, especially over a swath of the forecast area generally north of the Mountain Parkway and south of the I-64 corridor. Sustained winds have been right around 20 mph and we`ve seen a couple gusts to around 35 mph on the Kentucky Mesonet. Will allow Lake Wind Advisory issued for the Cave Run Lake area to run its course through 6 p.m. Winds should begin to die down by then with the approach of sunset. A warm frontal boundary will lift northward across the area tonight. Clouds will develop over much of the area and help moderate overnight lows across the area, keeping our typically cooler eastern valleys well north of the freezing mark. High res models and MOS suggest there is a potential for some isolated rain shower activity as this feature moves through our area. Felt it prudent to introduce some isold shower activity for late tonight. Threat of rain subsides by sunrise Wednesday but increases again late in the day as a cold front approaches. Gradient southwest winds will increase through the morning, with the coal fields well entrenched in the warm sector of this storm system. Would not be surprised to see another Lake Wind Advisory issued tonight for the day tomorrow. Gusty southwest winds will also send afternoon temperatures up into the 70s before a cold front moves through eastern Kentucky Wednesday night, providing another shot at cooler weather to the area. This system will also provide another decent shot at scattered rain showers Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT WED APR 18 2018 The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the long term portion of the forecast. They all depict the departure of the latest large upper low off to the northeast on Friday allowing heights to rebound over Kentucky. Omega block style ridging then works east from the Plains basically dampening out as it moves into the state through the weekend as the next upper low takes a more southern route through the Southern Plains. This latter feature is fastest to come east in the GFS with the ECMWF lagging and a notch stronger. The Canadian seems to support the ECMWF`s solution better at this time step into Sunday morning. This low then fades out as it slowly works east into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South to start the next work week. Meanwhile the northern stream will become more active as a strengthening trough moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region leaving eastern Kentucky in an area of weak mid level flow, almost col-like. Given the model similarities will favor a general blend solution with little in the way of adjustments or nudges toward any of the operational models. Sensible weather will feature cool high pressure slowly crossing the region to end this work week and continue into the weekend. From this a frosty night can be expected Thursday night into Friday morning. The high will moderate in time with the main aspect being to hold pcpn at bay for a fairly long stretch of time - definitely a break from the pattern of the past several months. We will need to watch the efforts of a southern low trying to work east and pick up some more Gulf moisture - but at this point it seems that this system will hold off through the weekend and potentially into the next week - though the GFS does bring in some rain by Monday morning with the ECMWF showing less conviction with its wetting of eastern Kentucky for Monday into Tuesday. Made mainly terrain based adjustments to the lows most nights next week depending on the sfc advection pattern. Did also beef up the PoPs in the far southeast through the start of next week in line with the midpoint of the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED APR 18 2018 A warm front continues to lift north toward the eastern Kentucky airspace, but clouds have so far been mainly confined to at or above FL045. Additionally, ceilings have yet to develop as high pressure has so far produced enough subsidence to negate these, but will continue to keep an eye on this potential through the night. Other concern for tonight and early Wednesday morning will be low level wind shear, particularly at SME/LOZ. Have left this mention out for now as 30 knots of wind within the lowest 2000 feet off the deck will advect north early this morning, as surface winds quickly veer southwesterly and increase to 10-15 knots. There may be a narrow window between about 11-14Z where this threat will be maximized, but current indications point to this being a minimal threat. Southwest winds will continue to increase and gust through the latter morning and afternoon, with speeds approaching 15-20 knots with gusts of up to 25-30 knots. A strong low pressure system moving between CVG and CMH this evening will keep winds elevated and gusty as they veer more west to just northwesterly tonight. This system will usher in a cold front, bringing the chance for some rain this evening into tonight, complete with likely MVFR ceilings in its wake into Thursday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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