Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 The short term period will feature above normal temperatures and chances of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Temperatures will not be quite as warm as yesterday and the day before, due to widespread cloud cover and precip, but will still top out in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday. Forecast lows the next two nights will likely be in the lower 60s. The best chance for rain should be Thursday and Thursday night, as a frontal boundary moves slowly across the area. The primary concern today and tomorrow will be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding due to this. Although we do not expect widespread flooding to occur, the slow movement of any thunderstorms and the presence of large amounts of low level moisture will bring the potential for localized flooding issues where heavy rain and thunderstorms occur. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 358 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 The upper level pattern for the extended begins with northern stream ridging over the Great Lakes and southern stream troughing over the OH Valley and southeastern CONUS. At the surface, a boundary will be slow moving during this time. However, it will be the source of lift and flow of warm/moist air brought up from the Gulf, which will aid in the production of rain showers through Saturday. Modest instability is present for Friday, so afternoon/evening storms are possible. This pattern will hold until Sunday when weak ridging develops over the OH Valley, bringing a brief lull in precipitation at least until the afternoon. A shift in the overall flow will follow for early Monday when a surface low pressure over the Plains makes its way eastward. A cold front will advance towards Kentucky, increasing rain chances for the beginning of the work week. The better instability looks to be during this time frame as well, so afternoon/evening storms will be possible through Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday. Temps will then warm up to be in the low to mid 80s through the forecast period, with Sunday being warmest. Low temps will generally be in the low 60s, but with some clearing and southerly flow Saturday night into Sunday morning, valley temps could drop lower than the ridges.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 A slow moving frontal boundary, along with weak impulses of energy in the upper atmosphere, will keep a chance of scattered showers and storms in the forecast through out the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most of the time through out the period, but any given airport could experience MVFR or worse conditions when affected directly by a thunderstorm or intense rain shower. MVFR conditions due to fog or low cloud based may occur at the TAF sites between 4 and 11Z on Thursday. Winds in general should be light and variable, but could become stronger and quite gusty during any thunderstorms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...AR

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