243
FXUS63 KJKL 271754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
154 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend, with
  temperatures (but not the humidity) gradually moderating each
  day. Heat indices peaking in the 95 to 105 degree range today
  will lower into the 90s for Saturday through Tuesday.

- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the first
  half of next week.

- A few storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of
  producing damaging winds as well as excessive rainfall that
  could lead to localized flooding.

- A potential cold front passage toward the middle of next week
  may bring at least temporary relief from the heat and humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025

Midday update is out with little in the way of any substantive
change. Showers and thunderstorms will develop momentarily as the
convective temperatures are realized most likely within the next
hour.

UPDATE Issued at 804 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025

A fairly comprehensive morning update has been sent out, with an
update to PoPs and Sky grids especially, with Sky grids increased
this morning to reflect the overcast cloud deck north of the
Mountain Parkway. Overall, however, there has been no substantive
changes from the previous forecast and/or forecast reasoning.

UPDATE Issued at 1110 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also fine tune the PoPs through the rest of the night with
sub-10% chances for thunder. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones, NPW, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 825 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure has slipped off to the
southeast of the area and this did little to hold back the
development of convection through eastern Kentucky today. The most
substantial cells have died out on the fringes of the CWA with
still a potential for a stray shower or storm into the late
evening, but most places will stay dry. Currently temperatures
are varying from the mid 70s to the mid 80s as places that saw
rain are cooler. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are
generally in the still sticky low to mid 70s. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids, but also to fine tune the PoPs per the latest
radar and CAMs guidance along with beefing up the fog in the
valleys. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to slowly get nudged east of the
Ohio River Valley through Friday as a weak upper low remains
mostly stationary over the Southeast U.S. By Friday night,
impinging westerlies will push a disturbance east across the Lower
Ohio River Valley.

The Heat Advisory has been extended another 24 hours until 8 PM
EDT Friday. This is based on a largely persistence forecast
whereby temperatures are trending gradually downward by a degree
or two each day, while dew points remain in the 70s. While most
locations will technically not hit the heat index criteria of 105
degrees, the cumulative effect of many consecutive days of hot
and humid conditions combined with record warm overnight lows is
an important consideration in the extension/continuation.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into early this
evening before weakening and then dissipating with the loss of
daytime heating this evening. Low-level and mid-level water vapor
satellite imagery continues to depict a dry air mass aloft, with
an inverted-v low-level signature in model soundings below the
LCL. Thus, pulse storms will continue to develop and push outflows
outward which may/will trigger additional convection. A few of the
stronger storms could produce damaging downbursts and outflow
winds as a result.

A repeat of these conditions is expected Friday as the atmospheric
environment will not change. However, by Friday evening the middle
and upper levels will begin to moisten as a shortwave begins to
approach from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025

Eastern Kentucky will reside within a weak flow regime aloft
between mid-latitude westerlies to the north and a weak mid-level
low over the Southeast U.S., with a large yet low-amplitude upper
trough impinging upon the Bluegrass State the early to middle
part of next week. An upper-level trough may push a weak cold
front through the area around Tuesday night or Wednesday of next
week, possibly bringing some relief from the hot and humid
conditions.

Unsettled weather is expected each day, with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms this weekend helping to moderate
temperatures. This activity then continues into next week, with a
weak cold front possibly crossing the region Tuesday night or
early Wednesday bringing a slight cooldown in temperatures along
with a potential reduction or possibly even elimination of
precipitation chances (PoPs) Wednesday into Thursday.

With several days of daily shower and thunderstorm chances,
high temperatures will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s, while
lows will slowly moderate as well with more and more valley
locations likely to drop into the 60s. After the potential cold
front passage toward the middle of next week, overnight lows may
drop farther into the 60s for all locations, with some of the
typically cooler valleys possibly flirting with upper 50s for
overnight lows by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025

Scattered popup showers and thunderstorms are expected to
occasionally approach, and in some cases, directly impact the TAF
sites through the afternoon and evening. Locations directly under
this activity could briefly experience significant flight
category reductions and strong, erratic wind gusts. Overnight,
locations impacted by rainfall are favored to experience fog and
visibility reductions, but confidence is low on placement of
rainfall at this time. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and light,
variable winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON