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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231842
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
242 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The Florida Keys have enjoyed a rather pleasant late April day in
the wake of yesterday`s frontal passage. Sprawling high pressure
located along the Eastern Seaboard is maintaining breezy northeast
winds across the island chain. Temperatures have risen into the
lower 80s with dew points ranging from 65 to near 70 degrees. Dry
air has kept showers well away from the Keys with even a very
brief thunderstorm occurring over the distant Straits of Florida.
Otherwise, the inversion noted on this morning`s sounding can be
seen on visible satellite imagery. This has produced ripples in
the low level cloud field as rising air hits the staunch inversion
and undulates downstream.

The forecast has not changed all that much. A mid level
disturbance currently across the central Gulf of Mexico will slide
southeast tonight but should stay just west of the Lower Keys to
really affect us. Otherwise, low level ridge will settle across
the western North Atlantic and remain a nearly permanent feature
through the next 7 days. This will keep our winds generally east
or slightly north of east through the same period. At the same
time, upper level ridging will begin nosing in from the west,
eventually phasing with the low level ridge towards the end of
the week. This will do one of two things. The first is the
easterly winds will strengthen beginning Thursday night and
reaching peak strength Saturday night through Sunday night. The
second will be a gradual increase in the boundary layer. This will
nudge PoPs up to slight category (10 percent), mainly Saturday
and beyond. Otherwise, no real features to discuss and
temperatures will be almost identical from day to day with day
time highs in the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Small Craft Should Continue to Exercise Caution until winds and
seas subside. Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes will
slacken to gentle to moderate overnight through Thursday across
the Keys coastal waters, as high pressure moves from the
Southeastern states offshore into the western Atlantic. A stronger
high will move into the western North Atlantic late this week and
into the weekend, producing strong easterly breezes across the
Keys waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH today; however, brief
periods of MVFR CIGs are possible in the late afternoon while a weak
cloud line remains over the island terminals. Near-surface winds
will remain northeasterly to easterly in the 10 to 15 knot range
with gusts slackening by midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  74  83  74  83 /  10  10  10   0
Marathon  74  82  75  83 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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