Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
504 FXUS62 KKEY 091853 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A very warm and sticky afternoon is ongoing across the Florida Keys. GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows mainly low level fair weather cumulus streaming from southeast to northwest through the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The Big Pine Key RAWS has also reached 91 degrees so far this afternoon. Therefore, the warm temperatures combined with the humidity is making it feel like its in the lower to mid 90s for much of the Chain with the exception of Big Pine where the RAWS is recording a heat index near 100 degrees. Surface high pressure remains in place across the western North Atlantic with the center of this high about midway between Hispaniola and Bermuda. Due to this, marine platforms surrounding the Keys are observing southeast to south winds near 10 knots with Island Chain communities observing near 10 mph. .FORECAST... The aforementioned high pressure system will continue to dominate the pattern into Saturday with near nil rain chances and southeast to south gentle to moderate breezes. Model relative humidity cross-sections and forecast soundings so a fairly dry atmospheric profile through Saturday night resulting in a dry forecast. The main change here was to remove rain chances for the Friday night through Saturday night time frame. A frontal system currently along the North Gulf Coast is expected to drift southward over the weekend while weakening. However, the front is expected to result in a wind shift across the Keys over the weekend to the northwest to north with gentle to moderate breezes expected. A subtle but noticeable dip in the dew points is anticipated for Saturday night through Sunday night before creeping back up to the tropical feel to start the new week. Starting Sunday, weak moisture return is anticipated resulting in slight chances returning to the forecast. The forecast for much of next week will be dominated by another surface high pressure system moving across the Southeastern United States and then into the western North Atlantic. East to southeasterly flow around the western periphery of the high will result in moisture perturbations keeping slight chances in the forecast. Also, with instability also increasing during this time, thunder has been maintained in the forecast and continued for the new day added to the forecast. Starting next week, the heat looks to really begin to take hold with daytime high in the upper 80s and overnight lows in the lower 80s. Therefore, not much relief from the daytime heat is expected at night. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes tonight. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south and southwest on Friday, continuing to veer around the compass during the weekend as a weak frontal boundary moves down the Florida peninsula. The front will dissipate near the Keys waters on Sunday, then southeast breezes will resume early next week as another high pressure area moves over the western Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon at EYW and MTH. FEW-SCT clouds will move across both terminals, with bases generally between 2-3 kft. Surface winds will remain from the southeast at 8 to 13 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1992, the daily record high temperature of 75F was recorded in Marathon. This is also tied for the coolest high temperature ever recorded in May. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 80 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest