836
FXUS64 KLCH 150444
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1144 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows weak surface high over the area, allowing for
variable winds 5 mph or less or calm across most locations.
Satellite imagery showing clear skies. Temperatures range in the
mid 60s to lower 70s this evening, with dewpoints in the upper 50s
to 60s, except lower 70s near the immediate coastal area. Morning
low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s north of I-10, mid
60s further south expected.

Patchy fog will be possible, most probable across Inland
Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana where the calm winds and
cooler temperatures & dewpoints likely to meet allowing for the
fog. Latest visibility guidance not really that exited about very
low visibilities or widespread fog. Thus, ongoing patchy fog
wording in forecast looks accurate at this time. Remainder of
forecast on track.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

High pressure will bring comfortable if a little warm weather to
the region. Temperatures will be approaching the 90s on Wednesday
as the clear skies will allow for maximum daytime heating.

Thursday will be the main concern this forecast cycle will be
another round of heavy showers and a significant risk of flash
flooding. The WPC has placed us under a Moderate Risk (3/4) for
Thursday. There is a possibility that pats of SE TX and, central
and SWLA could be upgraded to a High Risk (4/4). Widespread 3 to 5
inches of rain are expected while some areas could see more 6
inches on Thursday. Multiple models have consistently shown a
strong signal for flash flooding.

Different factors are pointing us towards a significant event.
With PWAT values a large concern as they will be approaching 2
inches across the region. Above the 90th percentile, in addition
slow storm motion, around 20 knots, will allow for heavy rain to
train over locations. In addition there is a low-end probability
for severe weather with the same event. With all modes of severe
weather being possible. Make sure to stay weather aware the next
few days and keep a close eye on the forecast as the situation may
change.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Uncertainty remains as to the evolution of the storm system
Friday into Saturday on when the system finally moves out of the
region. Flooding will remain the biggest concern, but strong to
sever storms will also be possible.

Thereafter, mid level ridging starts to push into the region with
rising heights. This could also lead a dry period into early.middle
portion of next week. Daytime highs will also push into the lower
90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. Light
north to northwest winds will veer southeast by the end of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Winds will shift northerly tonight then back east to southeast
through the day Wednesday as high pressure quickly slides east.
Onshore flow will then persist, strengthening slightly, through
the end of the week. Exercise caution conditions will be possible
at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Thursday as
another low pressure system approaches the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  88  64  85 /   0   0   0  40
LCH  64  89  69  83 /   0   0   0  60
LFT  66  90  69  87 /   0   0   0  40
BPT  64  90  70  84 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...05