Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
436 FXUS64 KLCH 190007 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 607 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and chilly conditions are expected through Tuesday with a light freeze and frost tonight away from the coastal marshes, and across central Louisiana Monday night. - A coastal low Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring much needed rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Cool and quiet weather will prevail in the short term as high pressure continues to settle into the area behind yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Light to nearly calm winds, a clear sky, and a very dry airmass will result in excellent radiational cooling tonight, and have cut under the operational NBM forecast by blending in some cooler guidance that verified well last night. Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to seasonal normals tomorrow, but that trend will be arrested by a reinforcing high sinking into the lower MS River Valley. Moderation will resume as onshore flow and WAA become established once the high begins to shift east toward the Mid- Atlantic TUE night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 MSTR return will accelerate into WED ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. There are some difference in global model guidance with respect to the surface response, particularly with regard to any surface wave/low development along the TX coast that would enhance lift and help focus higher rainfall amounts. Nevertheless, ample lift and MSTR are expected to be present, with precipitable water progged to be near the 90th percentile. Widespread rain/showers WED and WED night will bring some much need rainfall, with totals across the area averaging around one half of an inch, with higher totals possible across coastal SE TX/SW LA pending the development/evolution of SFC features. Small rain chances will linger into THU, but otherwise cloudy and mild weather will prevail to end the work week, with low confidence headed into the weekend with another possible frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 A surface high pressure system and dry air mass will linger over the forecast area during the period. This should bring VFR conditions with light and variable winds. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Northerly winds will continue to ease off, becoming light and variable tonight as high pressure at the surface settles into the region. Based on latest tide predictions, extended the low water advisory to cover the low tide cycle Monday morning. A more prevalent easterly flow will become established late Monday before a coastal low develops across south Texas before moving up the Texas gulf coast Tuesday through Thursday. This will result in gusty onshore winds Tuesday through Wednesday night, along with scattered showers. A cold front will move across on Thursday that will allow for strong offshore winds once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 A dry air mass will remain in place through Tuesday as a series of Canadian high pressure systems build into the region. Although winds are expected to be light to modest during this time frame, minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be below 40 percent, to go along with abnormally dry or moderate drought antecedent conditions, to bring about a fire risk for grass, marsh, and wood fires. Non professional outdoor burning is discouraged. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 27 57 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 34 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 30 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 34 64 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Monday for GMZ430-432- 435-436. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...07