134
FXUS64 KLCH 130528
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Nocturnal showers and a few storms will continue moving inland
 through early Sunday morning.

-Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
 as an upper low remains in the vicinity

-An upper ridge will build over the area for the first half of
 the week, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An upper low is centered over the northwest gulf this morning while
an upper ridge is over the southeast states. Locally, a somewhat
diffluent pattern exists overhead between these features. Toward the
surface a ridge extends from the Atlantic into the northern gulf
coast, as typical this time of year. This is providing the continuous
light onshore flow.

With the upper low in the vicinity, a steady flow of nocturnal
showers can be anticipated through the early morning hours. As
diurnal heating gets underway Sunday, additional inland convection
is anticipated. Temperatures will be about normal for the date.

Early in the week the upper ridge centered near the Florida -
Georgia line will build west. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are
still anticipated Monday as the upper low will remain centered off
the coast of SE TX, however it will be stretching and weakening
through the day.

The upper ridge will strengthen Tuesday with pops decreasing
farther. Isolated to widely scattered storms are still expected in
the afternoon, however with the lack of widespread afternoon
convection, temperatures will increase a degree or two from
Sunday and Monday. Tuesday`s highs are forecast to be in the mid
to upper 90s away from the coast with the apparent temps at
isolated locations reaching to around or near 108F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Hot and mostly dry conditions will start the extended as the upper
ridge remains in place and generally isolated afternoon convection
is expected.

Beyond Wednesday rain chances may increase again as a trough of low
pressure develops over then northern gulf coast. This will serve to
decrease temps back to normal levels while increasing rain chances,
however confidence in the overall pattern and where the trough
develops is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A few showers will move into the coastal areas through the morning
with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible by late morning
through the afternoon Sunday. This may cause brief periods of
lower vis and ceilings. Winds will be generally light and
southerly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through late next week. Daily
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal
waters through Monday with lower rain chances Tuesday and
Wednesday as upper level ridging builds across the northern gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Daily thunderstorms will
develop from late morning through early evening through Monday. An
upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  94  73 /  50  10  40   0
LCH  91  76  92  76 /  60  10  60  10
LFT  90  75  91  75 /  80  10  70   0
BPT  92  75  92  75 /  40  10  60  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05