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000
FXUS64 KLCH 100453
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1153 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A few showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon
along and to the east of the I-49 corridor. Some brief strong
storms with gusty winds and small hail will be possible until
activity diminishes in the evening hours after sunset.

There is expected to be a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday, especially during the late afternoon
into evening hours. This will be due to a short wave moving
southeast out of the Southern Plains across the region. This
feature is expected to initiate showers and thunderstorms over
northeast and east Texas that will congeal into a MCS and push
toward the forecast area by late afternoon that will continue into
the evening hours.

The environment will have decent instability with MUCAPES above
2500 j/kg, with favorable mid level lapse rates, along with just
enough shear (0-6km around 30 knots,) that there will a potential
for severe storms. At the moment SPC has outlined all but the
lower Atchafalaya Basin in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5)
Potential for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts and large
hail the main concerns with the timing mainly between 2 pm and 10
pm. Some high rainfall rates with the activity will bring about a
small flood risk, and the northern portion of the forecast area
will be in at least a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) Potential
for excessive rainfall leading to flooding. Of course a frequent
cloud to ground lightning risk will also have the potential with
any strong storm that forms.

A decrease in thunderstorm chances will begin on Sunday as the
disturbance moves off to the east and an upper level ridge will
begin to build in from the southwest.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The start of next week will be marked by a building ridge which will
set the stage for a hot and dry week.  Little has changed from the
previous forecast as a weak boundary will meander over central
Louisiana. At the same time high pressure will be sitting over the
southeastern US with 500 mb height of 588 reaching central LA.

A change of PoPs Monday afternoon will be the best chance for rain
next week as the ridge will take away the chance for rain. Instead
the hot temperatures will be our main concern as high temps will
start in the low 90s on Monday and reaching the mid 90s along the
coast. During the same time period Central TX and LA will be hotter
with temperatures in the upper 90s by Wednesday with some locations
breaking triple digits. Due to the high pressure and the weak
boundary winds will remain southernly, pumping moisture well north
of I-10 with dew points in the low 70s up to Alexandria. Theses high
dew points and temperatures will lead to apparent temperatures
getting close to the 105 degree threshold for a heat advisory
Wednesday through Saturday.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning along with light,
variable winds. An upper level disturbance approaching the area
from the West will initialize scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon with the most widespread activity expected
to occur across central Louisiana in the vicinity of AEX. These
storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds and
torrential rainfall. Storms will likely linger through the late
evening before gradually dissipating early Sunday morning.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

High pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf
of Mexico. This will result in light, to at times, moderate
southerly winds. Winds will be at their highest during the overnight
hours with somewhat of a marine nocturnal jet.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight
over the outer waters, then again for the entire coastal waters
late Saturday afternoon into evening. After that, an upper level
ridge is expected to start to build in and reduce rain chances.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  95  68 /  20  10  50  50
LCH  92  73  90  72 /  10  10  30  30
LFT  94  74  94  74 /  30  10  30  30
BPT  94  73  93  73 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...66