Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KLCH 032333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
633 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

For the 04/00Z TAF Issuance.


A few showers have developed and dot the forecast area. One
decreasing shower may come close to the KLFT terminal before
dissipating by 04/01Z so added a short period of VCSH for that
site. All other convection should also dissipate by 04/01Z.
Therefore, expecting rather quiet conditions for the remainder of
the evening and overnight with VFR. Some of the recent runs of the
CAMs show some seabreeze activity trying to develop late tomorrow
afternoon that may come close to the terminals at KBPT/KLCH. With
that being near the end of the forecast package, and probability
still low, opted to leave out of the TAF at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a diffuse boundary lingering near
the coast while our next weak front is noted from the Mid-South
through the ArkLaTex this afternoon...otherwise high pressure
centered over the wrn Gulf remains anchored over the region. Water
vapor imagery continues to show troffing from the Great Lakes to
the lower Mississippi Valley with a few embedded disturbances, the
nearest of which is seen crossing wrn/cntl TX at this time. Local
88Ds show a few showers/storms which have developed ahead of the
front over w-cntl LA...resultant outflows from the convection will
likely lead to a little more convection through the remainder of
the afternoon.

As stated before, expect very widely scattered convection to
linger into sunset as outflows potentially spawn a bit more
shower/storm activity before loss of heating spells an end to
potential development. Otherwise another partly cloudy/warm/muggy
evening is on tap for the forecast area as any convection noted
with the disturbance to our west should remain outside the area.

Hanging on to slim rain chances for tomorrow, primarily outside of
our nern zones as our next weak vort crosses and interacts with
the sfc boundary which will be stalling near the coast. With this
activity again being largely diurnal in nature, precip should come
to an end around sunset tomorrow evening. Repeat for Wednesday
albeit with maybe more convection farther inland with another
impulse driving swd through the trof.

For the weekend, the trof is progged to lift nwd, keeping
significant impulses away from the area. However with the coastal
front washing out and high pressure resuming a deeper onshore
flow, we should see a return of more typical summertime diurnal
convection, resulting in seasonal POPs for the bulk of the
forecast area Friday...then somewhat elevated POPs for the
weekend as forecast soundings indicate well above normal PWAT

Similarly to the last few days, a light/variable flow with the sfc
boundary nearby will eventually turn more srly as high pressure
builds east of the area. Regardless, no headlines are anticipated
through the period.


AEX  68  92  70  92 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  74  93  74  92 /  10  20   0  30
LFT  74  92  73  93 /  10  10   0  20
BPT  76  93  75  93 /  10  20   0  20




AVIATION...07 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.