Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 191758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1258 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

For 18z TAF issuance.


Basically a persistence forecast today. Sfc obs indicate just
scattered fair weather cu across the area at this time which
should continue through the afternoon. The main issue initially
looks to be the elevated srly winds as gusts will approach/exceed
20 knots. Overnight, expect another round of low ceilings per
forecast soundings/time-height sections. Ceilings will rise post
sunup with the onset of daytime heating, which will also lead to a
return of elevated srly winds.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1053 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/

Inherited grids/zones look fine as is per latest obs/
morning update is planned at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today through Saturday]...
Status quo continues today and Friday as high pressure remains in
control of the weather across the area. Winds will also be
increasing across the area over the next few days as the pressure
gradient increases.

Saturday will begin to bring changes to the area with the
combination of a wave and associated deeper moisture moving in
from the southeast from the Gulf. In addition a front will be
approaching from the northwest. The two will combine to produce a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area Saturday
afternoon and night.


LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...

A period of disturbed weather is expected to persist through the
long term period. Operational models show good enough agreement
through about Tuesday as a series of disturbances interact with a
cold front over the region, but beyond Tuesday solutions begin to
diverge markedly, especially by Thursday.

As the long term gets underway on Sunday, a front will be on our
doorstep, roughly along a line from Memphis to San Antonio.
Showers and storms will likely be ongoing early in the day, becoming
more widespread through the day as the front settles south over the
area. The front is forecast to stall as it approaches the coast
Sunday night, helping to focus elevated rain chcs acrs the area
overnight into Monday.

From Monday into Tuesday, another trough is progged to dig over the
western US and shift east toward the plains. At this point, global
model solutions begin to diverge, with the GFS becoming more
amplified and slower, compared to the ECMWF and CMC. A look at the
ensemble means shows a bit of a middle ground solution, with a slow
but steady progression east of the mid/upper trough.
The evolution of sfc features is also somewhat uncertain as well,
but the general expectation is for low pres to develop acrs the
southern plains as the trough approaches. This will help the stalled
boundary near the coast retreat back northward Monday into Tuesday,
with southerly winds resuming acrs the area.

From Tuesday into Thursday, the aforementioned differences become
even more apparent as the GFS trends toward a cutoff low over the
southern plains with a weak sfc boundary meandering slowly east acrs
TX, while the ECMWF/CMC remain more progressive eventually bringing
the front into the area by late Wednesday into Thursday. Either way,
the wet pattern looks to persist through midweek.

Precip water is expected to remain abv normal through the period,
ranging anywhere from 1.5 inches to nearly 2 inches as deep
southerly flow steers tropical moisture into the region. This will
make for some efficient precipitation producing storms, and
occasional periods of heavy rainfall could be possible. There remains
too much uncertainty at this point to raise any concerns regarding
excessive rainfall and/or flooding. However, storm total amounts
have increased since yesterday morning, and both operational models
and ensembles suggest general amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain will
be possible from Sunday through Thursday. Given that rainfall
deficits for much of the area range from about 5 to 12+ inches for
the year and between 3 and 7 inches just since March 1, these
rainfall amounts will certainly be quite beneficial.

As for temperatures, clouds and showers will hold daytime highs in
the 80s through the period. Overnight lows Monday morning will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s (still a little abv normal), but
increasing slightly each morning through the week as winds turn back
to a southerly direction.



Elevated southerly winds are expected into the weekend as high
pressure remains east of the area and a series of low pressure
systems slip across the Plains states, maintaining a tighter
pressure gradient over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Near zero
rain chances will linger through the week, before rain chances
return over the weekend with the approach and passage of a cool



AEX  94  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  89  73  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  91  74  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  91  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through Friday afternoon for GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-


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