Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLCH 100556
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1156 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
For the 12/10/18 0600 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds are quickly albeit unevenly eroding generally from N-S,
with all sites on the verge of clearing over the next 1-2 hours or
so. MVFR VSBY reductions have recently occurred at KAEX once the
clouds cleared out, but am uncertain whether this will be a
temporary or more long term (through the night) development. Nor
is it entirely clear whether the same will happen as CIGS at other
sites erode. For now will keep the VSBY restrictions isolated to
KAEX and prevail them through the overnight into early MON
morning.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/

UPDATE...
A broken low level cloud deck has inhibited temperatures from
falling at maximum radiational efficiency across much of the area
this evening. Where clouds have cleared, temperatures have
already dropped back into the upper 30`s with the rest of the
region in the low to mid 40`s. Skies will continue to clear from
north to south over the next few hours with most of the area
expected to then fall into the mid to upper 30s early Monday
morning. The present forecast reflects this accurately and no
changes were required.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/

DISCUSSION...
For the 12/10/18 0000 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
MVFR stratus continues to blanket the region early this evening
per observations and satellite imagery, though erosion is noted to
our north and northwest. Used a blend of numerical MOS and raw model
fields to arrive at times for improvement to VFR. Decreasing NW
winds expected this evening..

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds have begun to lift off to the northeast as drier air makes
it`s way into the region. Look for cooler and drier air with temps
near 30 across cntrl Louisiana and the lakes region in southeast
Texas. Mrng temps to be a bit warmer down towards the coast mid
30s. Winds will relax slowly in the coastal waters through the
evening hours.

Otherwise... it looks to be a quiet start for the first part
of the week as high pressure settles in for several days before
drifting off to the east. An area of low pressure will move down
the east side of the rockies and into Texas early Thursday morning
before moving off to the east and into southern Arkansas late in
the day. Winds will increase with showers and thunderstorms on
tap for Thursday into Friday. This will be a fast moving system
and looks to produce one to two inches with the passage of this
next system. Winds will pickup in the coastal waters with seas
building increasing behind this front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  30  52  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  56  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  36  53  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  36  55  34  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ455-470-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ455-
     470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight for
     GMZ430-432-435.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ450-
     452.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.