


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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700 FXUS64 KLCH 242324 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 624 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and muggy weather will prevail through the weekend with isolated showers and storms possible. - Rain chances increase Monday with unsettled weather persisting going into the upcoming work week. - There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive rainfall across parts of SETX and CenLA this coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Broad upper level ridging extends across the central Gulf while surface ridging remains slack. Warm, humid air will continue to advect northward across SETX and SWLA this afternoon and evening. A stationary front extends across the Southern Ozarks toward the GA Atlantic Coast. A surface trough has developed across West Texas which will help deepen southerly gradient wind flow across the NW Gulf through the overnight hours. 18Z upper air sounding indicates a strong low - mid level lapse rates around 7.7C/km with an exuberant amount of convective potential, Very moist 1000-600mb profile below the mid level dry layer associated with the upper level ridge hedges PWATs above the 90th percentile at 1.86". This type of atmospheric environment will be supportive of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Given the thermo profile, Tropical funnels can often result in this environment too, however, a lack of windshear will hinder severe modes this afternoon, apart from isolated wind / small hail in stronger pulse thundershowers. Worth nothing, slow storm motion vectors would be supportive of heavy rain rates for a few backyards. Forecast prognosis for the short term is for the surface trough and frontal boundary to remain stalled across TX through early Monday morning. With the stronger region of moisture convergence forecast to remain across NETX and northern LA, precipitation locally will organize as isolated to scattered pulse like thundershowers fueled by diurnal heating and copious Gulf moisture. Weak mid level inversions will help limit growth / duration of thundershowers amid weakly sheared environment, however, the opportunity does exist for some cells to gain enough depth for to persist longer. Highs will trend toward upper 80s / low 90`s while lows remain notably warmer climatological norms- in the low to mid 70`s. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 The surface trough begins to accelerate into the TN Valley by Tuesday which will increase frontogenesis and vertical ascent across the TX / LA Gulf Coast. General consensus among numerical weather prediction guidance is suggestive that scattered to widespread rainfall becoming more probable as we move into the midweek. WPC has outlined a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for northern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. Split flow across the Heartland keeps the later half of the work week ahead retaining an unsettled nature to the forecast. The aforementioned shortwave developing early in the week across the western CONUS is forecast to accelerate surface troughing into the Appalachians. This shortwave begins to devolve Wednesday with guidance broadening the solutions through Friday. The overall trend is for more turbulent, perturbative upper level flow to shift further south across the Southern Plains. This forecast is congruent with the recent daily issued CPC 6-10 day outlooks that have suggested above climatological norms for rainfall within the unsettled pattern during the upcoming week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Light southerly winds and VFR CIGs continue through sunset and into the overnight period. After midnight, CIGs will begin to lower to MVFR, remaining MVFR through the mid-morning hours tomorrow. By roughly 15-16Z tomorrow CIGs will begin to lift to VFR, while winds begin to pick up a bit, with occasional gusty winds and VFR CIGs expected through the remainder of the day. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow afternoon, with AEX being the most likely to see convection at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Onshore winds and seas will begin a modest increase Sunday night into the early work week. Widely isolated showers and storms to be expected over the Memorial Day Weekend with unsettled weather to follow from Tuesday on. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 92 74 92 / 20 30 20 40 LCH 76 89 76 88 / 0 20 10 10 LFT 76 89 76 89 / 10 20 10 20 BPT 77 90 77 89 / 0 20 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...17