Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 062338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
538 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

00Z 07MAR21 TAFs


VFR conditions to prevail through the period as a surface high
pressure builds into the region. Northerly winds will occasionally
be gusty this afternoon. Tomorrow winds will be shifting more out
of the east.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/


Sfc analysis this aftn shows expansive high pres extending from
the Great Lakes south acrs the MS River Valley into the southern
plains. The pres gradient between the high and a departing cold
front over the Gulf of Mexico remains strong enough to support
gusty northerly winds acrs the region this aftn. The latest WV
imagery and UA analysis shows northwest flow aloft, transporting
dry air over the area. Precip water values have continued to fall
during the day, now down to ~0.4 inches from ~0.6 inches this
morning, per recent GOES Total Precip Water. The end result is a
rather pleasant day, despite gusty winds, with abundant sunshine
and temperatures in the middle 60s to around 70 this aftn.


SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...

High pres is expected to prevail through the period, shifting
slowly east. Aloft, shortwave ridging will continue to develop
aloft, transitioning east in advance of a weak disturbance that
will approach the area on Sunday. No rainfall is expected to
accompany the disturbance although a slight increase in high clouds
will be possible.

In all, dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue
through the weekend, with cool nights and mild to warm aftns.
Overnight min temps tonight and Sunday night are expected to fall
into the upper 30s to middle 40s, with just a slight uptick in
temps Sunday night compared to tonight. Under abundant sunshine,
temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm into the middle to
upper 60s, ahead of a more pronounced warming trend that will
develop through the workweek.


LONG TERM [From 12Z Monday through 18Z Sunday]...

A subtle southern stream shortwave passing through the area early in
the extended range quickly slides southeastward, with zonal flow
aloft becoming reestablished by Tuesday. At the surface, high
pressure slides eastward, allowing the dry antecedent airmass to
begin to warm and moisten.

By mid-week, a deep upper level low diving southward along the west
coast of the CONUS begins to become cut-off to some extent from the
northern stream. The slow progression results in flow aloft over the
coastal Gulf region becoming more southwesterly, allowing a moist
and mild southerly flow to continue at the surface. In general,
expect the back half of the work week to feature a mix of sun and
clouds with temps about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normal. Opted
to keep PoPs below mention of showers in the WX grids given the
limited forcing, though guidance suggests a few spotty showers
aren`t outside the realm of possibility.

A bit more uncertainty moving into the Friday to Sunday time frame
with the operational global models handling the upper level low a
bit different. ECMWF cuts the low off in a bit more entirety than
the GFS, resulting in a faster eastward progression in the GFS. In
both scenarios, at least some expectation of increasing PoPs late
Friday and into Saturday, but faster GFS would push cold front
through Saturday with PoPs clearing early Sunday, whereas ECMWF
would hold off on FROPA. In any case, too far out to get too into
the finer details yet, so opted to stick with blended NBM
PoPs/Temps for now.



High pressure will continue to build over the region, with
northeast winds remaining elevated overnight, necessitating
Exercise Caution headlines in the Coastal Waters Forecast. Winds
will diminish on Sunday, shifting east through Monday as the high
moves over the eastern US. A light to moderate onshore flow will
resume by Tuesday and continue through the latter part of the



AEX  37  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  40  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  40  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  41  66  45  68 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ450-452-



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