Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 060438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1138 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

For 05/06/2021 06z TAF Issuance.


Light N to NE winds continue overnight tonight. A few lingering
MVFR clouds noted near ARA/LFT, but not expecting these to impact
the terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period, with NE winds picking up by mid morning Thursday,
becoming light and variable after sunset.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/

Wx map shows weak high pressure continuing to ridge across the region,
with diminishing northeast winds, calm across areas north of I-10.
Satellite showing clear skies across all inland areas except lower
Acadiana where some lingering cloudiness continues. Temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s across the region expected to cool into
the mid 50s north of the I-10 corridor, upper 50s to near 60
elsewhere. Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed at
this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday night]...

Band of showers and thunderstorms continues across the Gulf waters
generally south of Vermilion Bay near and to the north of a slow
moving frontal boundary. Farther north, post frontal low clouds
continue across parts of east and south central LA, though
satellite trends generally align with guidance indicating a
gradual thinning/erosion that should continue through the night
except for the coastal Atchafalaya Basin.

Southward progress of the front will likely remain sluggish
tonight, with small PoPs continuing over the far SE marine zones.
Otherwise, dry and cool weather will prevail, with temperatures
THU morning in the mid/upper 50s across interior SE TX and Central
LA to the lower/mid 60s I-10 to the coast.

With the flow aloft progged to become more amplified on THU, the
sluggish front will finally get a good push off to the south while
a reinforcing SFC high begins to build into the area. Dry weather
will little in the way of cloud cover will yield another great
weather day, with near seasonal highs expected. Temperatures THU
night will again drop into the mid/upper 50s north and lower/mid
60s south.


LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure at the surface controlling the near term weather
pattern will slide into the southeastern U.S. Saturday turning winds
back out of the southeast and streaming low level moisture back into
the area setting up a wetter pattern for next week. A surface low
will develop over the four corners region Saturday before pushing
east across the great plains. The associated frontal boundary will
initialize at least scattered convection across the are Sunday
into Monday. A broader upper level trof will then dig southeast
across the central U.S. by mid next week providing another focus
for scattered to widespread convection. The operational ECMWF is
much more progressive with both of these disturbances and shows
both as discreet events while the GFS is slower leading to a more
long duration precipitation event. The forecast is a blend of the
two solutions with a slight lean towards the euro by showing
somewhat lower PoPs behind the early week front.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger through Thursday
morning along a slow moving frontal boundary, mainly over the
waters east of Intracoastal City. Offshore winds will continue
into Friday as high pressure builds south into the area. The high
will quickly slide east Friday night, with a modest onshore flow
returning for the weekend into early next week.



AEX  75  55  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  79  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  78  60  81  60 /  20   0   0   0
BPT  81  61  85  61 /   0   0   0   0




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