Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 181605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1005 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Temperatures across the region remain below freezing this morning
but this will change in the next hour or so. Thereafter looking at
temperatures continuing to rise. This rise in temperatures will be
offset by clouds spilling in from the west as an upper level
disturbance moves into Texas this afternoon. The current zones are
on track with no updates planned at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

For the 18/12Z TAF Issuance.

Surface ridge centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf
Coast area is providing light winds and clear skies with VFR
conditions. The ridge will move off to the east today and tonight.
As it moves eastward, cloud deck around 6k feet over Lower Texas
will be able to gradually push into the region, later this
afternoon and evening. Cloud bases however will remain at VFR
levels through the end of the TAF package.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/


Short Term...Today through Saturday...

This morning`s surface analysis indicates a 1030 hPa high pressure
centered over the northern Gulf Coast. The combination of clear
skies and calm winds have allowed for temperatures to fall into
the teens to low 20s across most of the CWA. While some locations
did not climb above freezing yesterday, diurnal insolation and
decreasing cold air advection should allow temperatures to rise
into the lows 40s across the entire CWA today.

The area of high pressure will shift slightly eastward today as an
upper level shortwave trough moves eastward across southern Texas.
In advance of the shortwave, cloud cover is expected to filter
into the region late this evening and through the overnight hours.
While winds are expected to be very light tonight, the cloud cover
will be a limiting factor for the amount of radiational cooling
that will occur. Therefore, while low temperatures below 32 are
still expected across most of the CWA, a widespread hard freeze
does not appear likely. The best potential for a hard freeze still
looks to be confined to the northwest portion of the CWA.

Surface high pressure will continue to shift eastward Friday and
Saturday as the shortwave trough moves across the region. Winds
will shift to the southeast by late Friday and begin to usher in
greater deep layer moisture into the region. This will result in a
chance for showers, mainly across SE Texas and far W Louisiana.
The southeasterly winds will also result in warm air advection
through the weekend. Temperatures through the weekend will be in
sharp contrast to these past few days with highs increasing to the
upper 60s/low 70s by Saturday and Sunday.

Long Term...Sunday through Wednesday...

The shortwave trough that will transit the region Friday into
Saturday will act to prime the pump for a more amplified upper
level trough approaching later in the weekend. The southerly flow
in advance of the system will allow for moisture and instability
to increase through Sunday. The associated surface cold front is
expected to move through the region late Sunday into Monday
morning and provide forcing for a line of rain and a few
thunderstorms. Fortunately, the airmass in the wake of the next
cold front will not be of Canadian origin. Thus, temperatures
behind it are not expected to be as extreme over the past several
weeks and should fall to near climatological normals through the
middle of next week.


Northeasterly winds will begin to shift east through today and
southeast by Friday as the high moves east of the region. The
combination of light offshore flow and low astronomical tides
could result in water levels around -1.0 ft MLLW during this
morning`s low tide cycle.

After winds shift to the southeast on Friday, a light to moderate
onshore flow will persist into the weekend. This will result in
the potential for sea fog over portions of the coastal waters
from late Friday night through Sunday. Another front expected to
move through late Sunday into early Monday with showers and


AEX  41  25  49  40 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  41  30  53  47 /   0   0  10  30
LFT  41  29  53  44 /   0   0  10  10
BPT  41  34  54  49 /   0  10  20  40


LA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ027>033-

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ180-201-

GM...Low Water Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ430-432-



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