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000
FXUS64 KLCH 282344
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
644 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

For the most part a quiet and warm Sunday afternoon is ongoing
across the CWA, as surface high pressure ridges across the area
from the east. The only exception to this is really across the
Lake Charles area where several mesoscale boundaries have been
colliding over the last few hours resulting in scattered
convection, decent cloud cover, and cooler temps. We currently sit
in the low 70s the LCH airport, while the rest of the CWA is
seeing temps in the mid to upper 80s. With only a couple of
showers still ongoing this convection should die out through the
next couple of hours, giving way to another quiet night with lows
expected to fall into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Tomorrow, a very similar pattern is once again on tap for the
Memorial Day holiday. Overall, it should be a nice and warm
afternoon to enjoy some time outside, with highs expected to top
out in the upper 80s to near 90. However, we may once again see a
few afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two as the
seabreeze moves inland and daytime heating get going.

Heading into Tuesday, we turn our attention west as an upper level
shortwave slides into the western Gulf, inducing a surface low
near the lower TX coast. The combination of these features will
slowly track eastward through the midweek, bringing plenty of
cloud cover as well as slightly better rain chances to the
forecast area. Most of Tuesday`s convection should be focused
near the the coast and offshore, however, small POPs (~20%) extend
inland across the I-10 corridor as well as further north into SE
TX. Even with more cloud cover, another seasonal afternoon is on
tap temperature wise for Tues with highs topping out in the upper
80s once again.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

The area will begin the long term with widely scattered mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as the area lies
under a bit of a weakness aloft from a passing shortwave over the
Gulf, while moisture content will be on the high side (forecast
soundings indicate mean RH values of 75 to 80 percent along with
PWATs as high as 1.7 inches). However the lack of a good focus
mechanism (best lift with the vort looks confined to the coastal
waters) should preclude activity from becoming much more widespread
in coverage.

For now, Thursday looks dry as the area will be under the influence
of weak ridging extending nwd from the Mexican coastal plain into
the cntl CONUS. As the wave over the Gulf and its sfc reflection
approach the n-cntl Gulf/cntl Gulf Coast, perhaps enough lift could
spread over lower Acadiana to allow for a few showers/storms
with heating there.

After a dry Friday as the ridge holds, rain chances return on
Saturday as the ridge breaks down with the approach of a mid-level
shortwave...with the diminished capping working with daytime heating
and good lingering moisture to allow for widely scattered to
scattered development during the afternoon. Rain chances look a
little better on Saturday as the disturbance works its way into the
forecast area, enhancing lift.

Temps are progged to continue their slow rise through the long term
with lows forecast to get back to seasonal norms while highs run a
couple degrees above with readings in the lower 90s by the
weekend.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Outside of a shower affecting the BPT terminal with LIFR vsby and
MVFR cig, conditions across the area are VFR. Once the shower near
BPT dissipates over the next hour or so, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period amid mostly mid and high
cloud cover. Similar to the past few mornings, some very patchy
BR/HZ will be possible around daybreak, but is again expected to
be too transient to include in TAFs. With daytime heating, some
SCT high based CU (around 5000 FT or greater) will develop along
with a few SHRA/TSRA. Given isolated nature of convection, will
not include mention in TAFs at this time. Winds will be mostly
light and variable tonight into Monday morning, becoming southerly
during the day.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Light to moderate E to SE winds will continue through the next few
days, along with low seas. Rain chances begin to increase Mon
night into Tues as an upper level disturbance is expected to move
across South Texas into the Western Gulf of Mexico, with a weak
surface low developing south of the area. The combination of these
features will bring scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the coastal waters both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain chances diminish by Thursday as the system moves east of the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  88  66  89 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  69  87  70  87 /   0  10  10  20
LFT  69  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  20
BPT  70  89  70  89 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24