Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 160245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
945 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

All in all, minimal changes to the inherited grids/zones this
evening. Afternoon convection has mostly come to an end or moved
east of the forecast area with its attendant mid/upper-level
disturbance. Primary change to the forecast was made in the late
evening time frame (03z-06z) where latest high res solutions have
begun to bring in a little more convective development as lift
begins to ramp up with the approach of the next disturbance...and
some sign of this has been noted upstream. Best chances for rain
tonight remain overnight as the main shortwave moving into wrn TX
continues ewd and pushes the cold front...last analyzed from the
OH Valley through the Mid-South to the DFW Metroplex...sewd
through the forecast area. Will have to continue to watch for some
severe potential as the KLCH 00z sounding showed great
moisture and CAPE along with good instability and shear...primary
issue appears to be just decent lapse rates.

Elsewhere, remaining grids/zones looked in fine shape as is.
Update out shortly.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/


Scattered convection will continue across South-Central
Louisiana/Southeast Texas over the next several hours but are not
expected to have any impacts except for VCSH at KAEX. Convection
will then come to an end and allow for a window for fog to develop
before the next front pushes southward. This will result in a
chance for convection over during the early morning hours before
ending by mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/

Wx map shows surface high over the East Coast, with the next cold
front over MO/OK/N TX this afternoon. Over our region, weak
southerly flow continues to bring unseasonably warm and humid
conditions across the area.

Radar showing the next round of showers and thunderstorms along
and north of the I-10/U.S. 190 corridor. Most short term guidance
shows this first round of activity continuing through 6-7 PM,
with diminished activity expected though midnight. During this
time through midnight, mixed signals with guidance in the
formation of patchy to perhaps dense fog, with the NAM12 being the
most bullish on this issue. For now, put patchy fog during the 10
PM-1 AM time frame. After this time, increase lift ahead of the
approaching cold front will generate numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front.
Expect 1-2" of rainfall from this afternoon through Wednesday
morning north of the I-10 corridor with isolated higher amounts
possible. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains along and
north of the I-10 corridor.

Once the cold front clears the area Wednesday afternoon, cooler
and drier air, and the end of the precipitation expected through
Friday. Clearing skies could be questionable as the subtropical
jet remains fairly active across the Gulf.

The other issue will be a tropical wave moving into the Bay of
Campeche by Thursday, with possible development over the Western
Gulf. The National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance of development
in the 5 day outlook. Wide variety of solutions with development
and track among the GFS, ECMWF, & Canadian models which could
determine how much precipitation our region gets, or not that much
if the system moves east of the region. Thus, the forecast for
precipitation is highly questionable by Friday into the weekend.


Onshore flow will continue tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the cold frontal passage, with moderate offshore flow expected
behind the front through Wednesday night. An area of low pressure
is expected to develop over the western Gulf by Thursday, bringing
increased chances of shower and thunderstorms by Friday.


AEX  61  73  48  71 /  90  20  10  10
LCH  71  78  55  72 /  90  60  10  10
LFT  69  78  54  72 /  90  60  10  10
BPT  72  76  57  71 /  90  60  10  10



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