Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 212329
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Area radar and satellite shows thunderstorm activity this evening
mainly confined to the north of the I-10 corridor. A nearby upper
level low will result in VCTS lingering across southwest Louisiana
later into the evening compared to the past few nights. High
clouds from the remnants of thunderstorms from this afternoon and
evening will continue into tonight and winds will gradually
decrease to light and variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map continues to show a broad sfc high over the Gulf coast
states. High pressure aloft dominating most of the central and
southern Plains, with erosion from the east as the upper low over
the northern Gulf continues west. Afternoon temperatures mainly
in the low to mid 90s (except areas cooled off by outflow
boundaries), couple with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, giving
heat index values in the 100-107 range.

Radar showing an increase in convection the last couple of hours,
especially along the coast, coastal waters and South Central
Louisiana as the moisture and instability increases from the east
with the approaching upper low. Highest chances will remain at
these locations through early evening, diminishing after sunset
through midnight.

The increased moisture and instability with the upper low is
expected over most of the area by the weekend, reflected in the
increased pops to 50-60% during the afternoons. Gradual decrease
in shower and thunderstorm chances expected during the early part
of next week as the upper level low moves further westward into
Texas and weakens. For most of next week, the upper ridge will
resume its grip over the region with isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms, and temperatures warming back into the mid 90s
for afternoon highs and mid/upper 70s for lows.

DML

MARINE...
Onshore flow becomes the dominant pattern through the weekend
into next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be enhanced
this weekend as an upper level low pressure system moves across
the region. Chances of showers and thunderstorms expected to
diminish by early next week as high pressure aloft resumes its
grip over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  93  75  91 /  30  40  20  50
LCH  78  89  78  90 /  40  50  20  60
LFT  76  90  76  90 /  50  40  20  60
BPT  79  89  79  90 /  40  50  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



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