Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 290507 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1207 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Tonight through the rest of the week...
Fall is in the air! No rainfall is expected for the next few
days. We are still experiencing some impacts across the area from
pressure gradient differences. Strong northerly flow will be in
place over the region for the next few days. Looks like the winds
will continue to be northerly over the next few days, so any
coastal flooding concerns are extremely unlikely. So, that is good
news!

The strong northerly flow continues to cause some breezy
conditions in our area through late this evening. Winds are
approaching 25 miles per hour in some locations, mainly in the
coastal areas, and we have seen some higher gusts. A Wind
Advisory is in effect through 03Z Thursday. People should be
cautious when driving and continue to secure any loose items until
the winds relax a bit.

The dry weather may feel nice, but unfortunately, we will still
have a concern for fire weather conditions tomorrow. Relative
humidities will be between 25-30 percent during the daytime hours
Thursday with pockets of lower percentages. This dry environment
combined with the gusty winds and abundance of fuels means that
fire weather will be a concern over the next few days. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday. Currently, confidence
for fire concerns is not as high as it was in previous forecast
cycles, but it will be close and impacts are likely (basically, it
will still be dry and easy to start/burn fires more than usual).
People need to be cautious when parking on grass and using
cigarettes. Additionally, people need to restrict any planned
burns for tomorrow.

So in summary, the next few days, there will be the concern for
gusty winds (~20 mph tonight) with higher gusts. A Wind Advisory
is in effect tonight through this evening. Additionally, critical
fire weather conditions resulting from low humidities, higher
winds, and the presence of fuels will also be a concern tomorrow.
A Fire Weather Watch for Thursday is out. We will continue to
monitor for coastal flooding concerns, but for the moment, it
looks like tides will be around normal toward the weekend.
Expect dry and sunny conditions (and Fall- like temperatures!)
the rest of the week. (MSW)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Forecast in the extended portion of the forecast is
perfect. Biggest issues is the forecast lows for Sunday and Monday.
Blended between the ECX/MEX/NBM for lows but otherwise stuck with
the NBM for the majority of the long term portion.

By Saturday the remnants of Ian should be around or just east of the
southern portion of the Appalachians. That will keep our area on the
dry side of anything with dewpoints dropping into the 40s and mid
50s through much of the weekend. Winds should be light enough around
h925 and h85 to allow for rather favorable radiational cooling
leading to morning lows Sunday dropping into the 50s and lower 60s
across much of the area. Upper 40s in isolated areas can not be
completely ruled out. Fairly similar setup Monday morning but maybe
just a few degrees warmer.

Northerly and northwesterly flow should eventually give way back to
zonal flow by mid week with moderating conditions through the week.
Broad high pressure will continue to dominate the region with LL
winds out of the east-northeast and this will keep the dewpoints on
the lower end which should continue to keep the fall like feeling
over the region. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

The only main concern for the forecast period is LLWS in the early
morning hours. This will lead to lower surface winds with
continued strong winds at 2,000 feet. This is expected to occur
mainly along the I-12 corridor, so those terminals have LLWS
included in them from 4-10z. Otherwise, we will continue to have
dry and mild conditions, so expect VFR conditions throughout the
entire period. (Zeringue)


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

The marine forecast is a bit sensitive thanks to the influence of
the system in the Caribbean, Ian. Strong northerly winds
(20-30kts) will be in place over the area tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect now through 00Z Friday for the tidal lakes.
A Gale Warning is in effect through 00Z Friday for the coastal
waters. A small craft advisory is in effect for our entire marine
area from 00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday. Saturday through
Monday, winds will return to calmer conditions (<15 knots) and
remain northerly to northeasterly. Wave heights will correspond to
the wind speeds. (MSW)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  51  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  78  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  79  61  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  80  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CDT this morning through this
     afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-
     076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ530-534.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CDT this morning through this
     afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ534.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ536-538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...JZ/Frye


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