073
FXUS64 KLIX 260457
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1157 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

As has been repeated since the beginning of the week, we`re still in
this wet but still pretty hot summer pattern. Temps today remain in
the high 80s with heat index values just barely reaching 100.
Tomorrow is similar albeit a bit cooler with heat indicies only
reaching about 97. Short range models still suggest daily summer
convection, and while these storms may not necessarily be jaw
dropping, locally heavy rainfall can happen in places where
convection rates tend to be higher. PWs are tending to range
anywhere from 1.75-2.25 which supports said heavier local rainfall
amounts. Going into Saturday, the models support the trough that
has been stationed over the CWA finally moving towards the east
coast. While this can be good in terms of catching a break from
all the heavy rain we`ve been seeing, this does suggest a small
increase in temperatures in the future. (Hunn)/(Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Sunday will be a more transitional day as the H5 ridge spread
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and generally in our
direction. This will help punt the active southwesterly flow a bit
as the upper level weakness continues down stream across the Ohio
River Valley. The upper level pattern from this point will allow
for this weakness to park over the eastern US Coastline late by
midweek putting our region in a dryer northwesterly flow aloft.
Speaking of drier, POPs late this weekend and early next week are
still middle of the road, but not nearly as high as they have been
running. The heights and subsidence aloft will help limited
convection to more scattered in nature during the diurnal max
(land/sea respectively). So, inversely as POPs decrease,
temperatures will increase and that has been outlined gradually
through the long term forecast period. Without being too specific,
unfortunately it does look like we may start flirting with heat
headline criteria once again from Sunday onward. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated at all of the terminals
through 16-18z. As temperatures warm, convection will begin to
form around 18z and continue to form through 00z before once again
dissipating between 00z and 02z. Have included a mention of
prevailing SHRA and VCTS at all of the terminals between 18z and
00z. If a thunderstorm directly impacts a terminal, a period of
gusty winds and a brief reduction in visibilities and ceilings
into MVFR and IFR range can be expected. Convective impacts should
be between 30 minutes and an hour if storm moves over a terminal.
PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

A very typical Summer pattern of pop up convective cells forming
between 18z and 00z is once again expected over the area tonight
into tomorrow. Ongoing convection near MCB, HDC, and NEW will
quickly dissipate within the next two hours as daytime heating
wanes. Once these storms dissipate, prevailing VFR conditions are
anticipated at all of the terminals through 16-18z. As
temperatures warm, convection will begin to form around 18z and
continue to form through 00z before once again dissipating between
00z and 02z. Have included a mention of prevailing SHRA and VCTS
at all of the terminals between 18z and 00z. If a thunderstorm
directly impacts a terminal, a period of gusty winds and a brief
reduction in visibilities and ceilings into MVFR and IFR range can
be expected. Convective impacts should be between 30 minutes and
an hour if storm moves over a terminal.  PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Marine conditions will remain rather favorable through the cycle.
Winds will mostly be onshore, but closer to the coast more
variable wind directions may be possible. Regardless, winds should
remain less than 10kts and seas again will remain favorable.
Convectively speaking, showers and storms will continue each day,
which may increase winds and seas locally. A waterspout or two
will also remain possible, especially early morning. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  85  71  88 /  50  70  50  90
BTR  75  89  75  91 /  30  70  50  90
ASD  74  90  75  91 /  30  70  50  90
MSY  77  88  77  90 /  30  70  50  90
GPT  75  88  76  89 /  30  60  40  80
PQL  74  92  75  93 /  20  60  30  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF