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000
FXUS64 KLIX 110946
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
446 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...

There were not a lot of changes needed to the forecast as a
whole as the overall scenario remains fairly unchanged.
Unfortunately, that four letter word will be the main issue for us
again today and into tomorrow as well. Rain will once again move
into the area by the afternoon hours as a front remains stalled
near and to the north of the forecast area and the next shortwave
feature moves across the area from west to east.

While some of the storms today and tomorrow could become strong to
severe, the main issue will be the possibility of heavy rainfall.
Any stronger storms across the area will be capable of strong
winds, large hail and even a isolated tornado. That said, given
the high PW values expected again across the area and more than
adequate forcing, areas of heavy rain are likely to occur
beginning in the northern part of the forecast area and slowly
pushing southward. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are
likely with isolated higher amounts possible. Given the amount of
rain the area has had over the last several days, and weeks for
that matter, opted not to try to pinpoint the location of the
heaviest rainfall and went with a flash flood watch for the entire
area from 18Z today through 18Z tomorrow.

By late tomorrow evening, the rain should begin pushing off into
the coastal waters and out of the area as the front finally moves
through the area and into the coastal waters by Thursday morning.
Some lingering rainfall is possible on Thursday but clearing
should begin from northwest to southeast as the day progresses.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night and beyond)...

By Thursday evening, northern stream shortwave should have pushed
any significant precipitation offshore, with the possible
exception of extreme lower Plaquemines Parish. Shortwave ridging
will move into the area Friday and Saturday, before onshore flow
returns as the ridge shifts to the east of the area. Weak
shortwaves in southwesterly flow could produce a few showers or
thunderstorms as early as Sunday afternoon. Areal coverage of
thunderstorms is likely to increase Monday into Tuesday as a
shortwave moves eastward out of the southern Rockies. Blended
solutions are carrying relatively high PoPs for much of the area
Monday into Tuesday, and it looks like the 00Z GFS is showing some
agreement with this solution. Blended temperature guidance
doesn`t deviate much from what the 12Z GFS/ECMWF medium range
solutions were giving, so making significant adjustments wasn`t
really considered. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings have lowered at most terminals by with some reduced
visibilities as well. Still some convection well to the northwest
near KSHV that has tended to work it`s way southeast. At this
time, it`d be close to sunrise before getting to KBTR, and not
confident it would make it that far, so will not be carrying
mention of TSRA in the first 9 hours of the 06Z TAF package, but
threat is certainly not zero.

The overnight IFR conditions should improve to MVFR ceilings
around 15Z. Question then becomes exactly where/when convection
initiates during the day today. Synoptic scale models (GFS,
ECMWF) develop most convection north of all of our terminals, and
keep it there during the day. Some of the convection allowing
models develop TSRA near at least our northern terminals during
daytime heating. For now, will carry VCTS beginning at 15Z and
continue through the day for each terminal, but this may need to
be trimmed back in later forecasts, particularly at KHUM and the
New Orleans terminals. Ceilings again could drop into the IFR
range beyond 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside of the convective risk for isolated strong wind events
from thunderstorms, the pattern over the coastal waters will be
fairly benign through Wednesday. However, winds could increase
into exercise caution range in the wake of a passing cold front
Wednesday night through Friday night. Conditions should improve by
Saturday as high pressure shifts over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  66  73  57 /  80  80  90  40
BTR  86  68  76  61 /  70  80  90  40
ASD  85  68  78  62 /  70  60  90  50
MSY  87  73  80  67 /  50  60  90  50
GPT  82  69  79  62 /  60  60  90  50
PQL  82  68  79  61 /  60  50  90  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>061-063>072-
     075>078.

GM...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for GMZ530.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...&&

$$