762
FXUS64 KLIX 212316
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
616 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An upper level ridge is currently centered over central Mexico just
southwest of Brownsville Texas. The axis of this high currently
extends northeastward across the southeastern US to the Ohio River
Valley. It will suppress southward the next couple days as an upper
level trough currently moving through the Northern/Central Plains
tracks northeastward across the northern Mississippi River Valley.
More locally, not much change expected to 500mb heights which means
slightly above normal temperatures persist. In addition, this will
keep rain chances out of the forecast. Otherwise, thats about it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Like the near-term, really not much to talk about in the extended
portion of the forecast. High pressure will maintain hot and
rainless conditions. Temperatures will creep up a few degrees the
rest of the forecast period as the upper ridge nearby strengthens. A
few locations could approach record highs this weekend. At the
moment, it doesn`t appear that dewpoints will be high enough to
support heat indicies anywhere near heat advisory, but should at
least exceed 100 late this week.

The ridge will continue to be suppressed southward as another trough
tracks across the mid Mississippi River Valley this weekend. That`ll
eventually allow for some afternoon convection but currently doesn`t
look like that`ll happen until sometime next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Currently VFR across all terminals. Still a fair amount of cumulus
clouds around, but most of those should dissipate in the next few
hours. Still at least a low end potential for fog around sunrise,
with KMCB and KHUM the main prospects. If that does occur, it
should burn off by 14z. Could also be a very brief period of MVFR
ceilings (FL025) in a few locations as cumulus field develops
tomorrow morning, but should lift above FL030 pretty quickly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Surface high pressure centered northeast of the local area will
slowly shift from the Carolinas to the western Atlantic from now to
early next week. This will keep onshore flow in place with a gradual
shift in wind direction from southeast to south. The pressure
gradient will generally support wind speeds around 10 knots with
occasional periods of speeds closer to 15 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  86  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  71  91  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  88  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  88  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  70  85  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  68  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME