464
FXUS64 KLIX 140000
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
600 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 417 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Rain and moisture quickly pushed out to the southeast and we have
generally seen mostly sunny skies. Even with some slight CAA
through the day we have not seen cold weather cu develop. This
allowed temps to get much warmer than anticipated with lower 60s
across portions of the area.

The forecast for the next 48 hours is relatively quiet as the next
possible impacts really don`t show up till maybe overnight Wednesday
and more so this weekend. So the interesting this with our system
yesterday and last night is there was never any real trough axis
sliding through. The rain was driven by a sfc low sliding across the
northern Gulf under WSW flow aloft. With the (saying this loosely)
L/W trough highly positively tilted from the central Canadian/US
border to the southwest through the 4 corners and into the Pacific
off the srn CA coast it has maintained that broad WSW flow. This is
not going to change over the next few days as another system
dropping down the Pac coast will continue to anchor the base of the
trough back to the southwest tonight. This feature closes off and
eventually cuts off west of the Baja with a possible Rex Block
trying to develop Wednesday over the ern Pac and west coast. This
begins to lead to more of a zonal flow aloft with a potent s/w
dropping southeast over top of the Rex Block and into the srn Plains
states Wednesday night and could lead to rain returning much
earlier than previously thought but more on that in the long term.

So for the next few days we look quiet and cool. There is still some
weak CAA expected to occur over the next 18-24 hours and tomorrow
could be slightly cooler than today. But with no real LL thermal
trough seen in the models that cold weather stratus deck that was a
possible concern today and possible lingering into tonight is no
longer an issue. We should have no problem cooling off and a light
freeze is possible across southwest MS and just across the border
into the FL parishes but farther south towards I-12 lows probably
remain in the mid to upper 30s and mainly due to some mixing still.
Light CAA taking place overnight in the LL will help keep winds up a
little and thus some mixing and not allowing for optimal
radiational cooling. That may be a lot better tomorrow night and
could allow for a few locations in the river drainage basins to cool
off to near freezing. That said with the winds up tonight,
especially across the northshore as winds will mix more efficiently
coming off the lake, wind chill values will range from the mid 20s
in southwest MS to upper 20s and lower 30s down to I-12 and across
coastal MS and then lower to mid 30s along and south of I-10 in
SELA.

As we mentioned earlier there is still likely to be some mild CAA in
the LL and mdls show h925 temps dipping a little early tomorrow and
this may lead to highs generally in the 50s across the area. Again
this will actually be a few degrees cooler as many sites did peak
out in the lower 60s today. Another cool night Tuesday night but we
should be a few degrees warmer as LL temps look to start slowly
warming as we head into Tuesday evening. We may also have some thin
cirrus across the region. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 417 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Confidence is not extremely high in the extended forecast.
Initial thoughts were we should remain dry until the next system
next weekend but now there has been a large shift towards rain
returning as early as overnight Wednesday night. This appears to
have a lot to do with the disturbance currently southwest of CA
and the abundant energy dropping down the coast into it. As that
happens as was mentioned earlier it will close off and eventually
cut off late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Because of this the
WSW flow aloft becomes more zonal as it is in response to another
strong disturbance dropping south over the Continental Divide
which will move into the srn Plains late Wednesday. Depending on
how strong/deep this disturbance is we will see some type of
response in the Gulf with either an actual sfc low Wednesday night
over the northwestern/north-central Gulf or a weaker wave a
little farther south over the western Gulf. Both options bring
about the possibility of rain early Thursday but the slightly
farther north and more well developed solution has light rain
during the over night hours spreading in from the southwest/west
and likely light rain through most of the day leading a rather
cool and dreary day Thursday. NBM is a little off as it doesn`t
have real high PoPs but it holds onto rain through Friday which
neither of the previous solutions show. Given this is the first
real trend towards better rain chances for Thursday we will stick
closely to the NBM for now but given the amount of lift aloft and
that fact that we did not have a true trough pass through and thus
never completely cleaned out the environment and moisture will be
just to our south am more inclined to believe the trend towards a
wetter scenario for overnight Wednesday through Thursday...fairly
similar to the past 24- 36 hours where models were dry 3-4 days
out and then progressively got wetter.

Next more bona fide system will be this weekend with the L/W trough
becoming more amplified as the short lived Rex Block breaks down
quickly (blocking pattern don`t typically break down quickly but
then again we are in winter and have been in an active pattern for
almost a month now). There may be some embedded thunderstorms as
instability will still be very very limited but likely stuck much
closer to the coast. Heading into next week we will see another
significant cool down and lets see how things transpire and if there
is another 1 or 2 southern winter systems. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail though the whole forecast period.
It is a little blustery but otherwise clear skies. Clouds will be
on the increase again tomorrow but should not be an impact. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

High pressure is slowly pushing south and will become remain
centered over the Lower MS Valley late tonight and early tomorrow
before sliding over towards the Ohio and TN Valleys Wednesday. This
will finally allow winds to slack off quickly tomorrow while veering
around from northerly tonight to easterly by Wednesday. Winds will
also increase Wednesday with headlines likely being needed Wednesday
night and Thursday as a surface low develops and slides across the
Gulf. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  55  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  35  58  41  60 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  35  58  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  41  55  45  58 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  34  55  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  33  59  37  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...CAB