Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
805 FXUS64 KLIX 301205 AAB AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 705 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Weak upper ridging was centered from the Louisiana coast to east Texas Sunday evening, with a weak upper low near the west coast of Florida. At the surface, the Bermuda high continued to extend westward over much of the northern Gulf. The airmass remained rather moist, with precipitable water values near 2 inches, although the 00z LIX sounding could have been slightly contaminated with a thunderstorm about 10 miles downwind of the office at launch. Convection was already developing offshore of Vermilion Bay to Lake Charles prior to midnight, and we`ll have to see how much progress into the CWA it makes it prior to sunrise. The upper low near the Florida coast is forecast to drift westward over the next 36 hours, keeping the very moist airmass in place for the next couple of days. Based on the track record of the last couple days, we can expect at least isolated to scattered development of showers and storms by mid to late morning, with the highest areal coverage between 1 pm and 5 pm CDT before diminishing during the evening hours both days. While the greatest threat of heavy rainfall appears to remain over the Gulf off of the Alabama and Mississippi coasts, there is at least some low end potential for excessive rainfall from about the Interstate 55 corridor eastward. High temperatures likely to top out in the 88 to 93 range for most of the area as afternoon convection develops. Areas that see storms develop earlier may struggle to get much above 90. Overall, expect heat index values to remain below advisory criteria over the next 36 hours. RW && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 The upper level weakness responsible for enhancing our diurnally driven daily convection will start to gradually shift eastward in time. This will allow for a very subtle upper ridge to move into the region. At first this will not cut POPs entirely, however, coverage will start to decrease from midweek and especially as we move toward the upcoming holiday weekend. Rain chances will be around climo for this time of year, perhaps a bit below. With the subsidence still cannot rule out a strong wind gust or two in the strongest cells, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The main store will be the building heat with the slightly higher thicknesses and heights over the region. Temperatures going into late week and into the weekend will climb into the middle 90s for most of the CWFA. Although heat index values may be mitigated by some dry air mixing down, very hot conditions are still expected. Outdoor activities for Independence Day will be rather unpleasant at best and potentially dangerous at worst depending on heat exposure and activity. Toward the end of the period, POPs gradually increase allowing for temperatures to be a bit lower during the day, but humidity values will remain elevated and there may be just enough rise in RH values to get to heat advisory criteria to round out the holiday weekend. Bottom line, the rain chances are looking lower for the holiday, but heat and the potential for heat related illnesses will increase. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 705 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the cycle. Confidence in higher coverage is there today, so used PROBs this morning and TEMPOs this afternoon as more numerous showers and storms develop. Winds will remain mostly light/southerly except variable and gusty in and around storms later this afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Winds are expected to maintain a more southwesterly, or even westerly component over the next few days as the center of the surface high shifts a bit to the east. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 knots, with the more general concern daily/nightly rounds of showers and thunderstorms, which would produce locally higher winds and seas. Most frequent timing will be late night and morning hours over the open waters, and afternoon and early evening over the lakes and sounds. (RW) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 90 72 90 72 / 60 30 70 30 BTR 92 75 92 75 / 60 20 60 30 ASD 90 74 90 73 / 70 30 70 40 MSY 92 77 91 77 / 70 20 70 40 GPT 88 74 89 74 / 80 50 80 60 PQL 88 72 88 73 / 80 60 90 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW