Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 222104
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
404 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

It wouldn`t be late Spring in Louisiana without a reminder that
Hurricane Season is right around the corner. An area of low
pressure located of across the Northern Gulf of Mexico is
producing showers and thunderstorms that are expected to move to
the north and east through the late afternoon and evening. NHC has
given this low pressure area a 10% chance of formation in the
next 48 hours, with the environment not conducive to development
at this time. Regardless, this low pressure system still has
plenty of Gulf moisture to work with and rainfall will be a
concern. The better chances of widespread and potentially heavy
rainfall will be over Coastal Mississippi and possible the far
southeastern portions of Coastal LA over the next day or so.

Meanwhile, there is still the matter of a cold frontal boundary
hung up just to the north and west of our area. Convection has
been generally disorganized with sporadic showers and storms
developing through the day. However, CAMS and other short term
guidance have indicated that convection will become more widespread
late this afternoon and into the the overnight hours as a short
wave disturbance aloft moves across it tonight.

The front will drift into the area overnight and settle in a more
west/east orientation before generally washing out into a weak
boundary. However, the proximity to the Gulf Low as well as
several upper level perturbations will keep the unsettled weather
in the forecast through much of the week. Chances for showers and
storms will continue through at least Monday into Tuesday before
the Gulf surface low moves off to the northeast. High pressure
will become the dominate feature off the east coast of FL as a
storm system gains strength over central Texas.

This will bring a long S to SE fetch from the Gulf with issues
for coastal flooding potentially. Also deep southerly flow will
drive the remnants of the boundary north as a warm front with
storms possible in the afternoon as the Texas low moves through
the ArkLaTex region.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...

At least another day or two of unsettled weather will continue
through the extended forecast period. With the warm front situated
to across North-central LA, a stronger storm system across the
Central Plains will push eastward, driving a cold front back
towards the CWA. Wednesday will have the potential for widespread
storms some of which could be severe on Wednesday. In fact, SPC
has at least part of the northern portions of the CWA in a Day 4
outlook.

Showers and storms would continue into Weds night and Thursday
before the front clears the areas and into the Gulf. Dry and hot
weather will return in time for the holiday weekend as high
pressure builds across the region.


&&

.AVIATION...
Complicated TAF package as afternoon instability is progressing.
A frontal boundary is slowly moving into the area as a easterly
wave sits over the Northeastern Gulf Coast. Besides convection
this afternoon, these two feature will bring more widespread TSRA
to terminals tonight and possibly overnight especially over the
MS coast. MVRF to hints of IFR cigs will be possible tonight given
the ample moisture in the region. Conditions should improve on
Monday as the weather features move east. (JL/69)

&&

.MARINE...

Unsettled weather will continue across the Lakes and marine areas
as a cold front stall across SE LA. Meanwhile,a low pressure
system remains over the Northern Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms
will stay in the forecast through at least late Weds or early
Thursday. Wave heights should improve tonight although swells from
thunderstorms could still propagate through the waters. A long S
to SE fetch will develop as high pressure sits off the east coast
of FL and low pressure forms over Central TX on Tuesday. Moderate
seas of 3 to 5 feet will be common in the outer waters. A stronger
cold front will moves through the coastal waters on Wednesday
night into Thursday with widepsread storms. High pressure will
return with improved marine conditions for the holiday weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  83  66  87 /  60  40  30  60
BTR  68  85  68  87 /  70  40  30  60
ASD  68  85  68  88 /  70  70  30  50
MSY  72  84  74  88 /  60  70  30  50
GPT  71  82  71  86 /  80  80  40  50
PQL  69  82  68  86 /  80  90  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ570-572-
     575.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ572-575.

&&

$$


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