430
FXUS64 KLIX 151020
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
420 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Overall, no significant issues expected today or tomorrow. High
pressure remains generally in control although some returns are
showing up on radar this morning. Observations across the area
show that most of it is not reaching the ground, with the lone
exception possibly near the coast. The upper air sounding from
last evening shows a good amount of mid-level moisture associated
with a passing shortwave, so this is not surprising. Rain chances
will be on the lower side with this system and not expecting much
in the way of rainfall amounts either.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 414 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

A southern stream shortwave will approach the area ahead of a
stronger system on Friday. As low pressure develops across
Oklahoma and Arkansas by late Friday and pushes east, it will
drag a cold front through the area. While there may be some
elevated instability Friday night and early Saturday morning as
southerly flow from the Gulf increase thunder cannot be ruled out
and is mentioned in the forecast. That said, no severe weather is
expected with this system at this time.

Now for the difficult part of the forecast as we move into the
latter part of the weekend and the beginning of next week. The one
thing that looks certain at this point is the much colder air that
will be ushered into the area and persist through a good portion
of next week. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to make it out
of the 40s and by Monday high temperatures across most of the area
will be in upper 30s and lower 40s. Morning lows will begin to be
an issue on Monday morning as mid to upper 20s are expected across
a large part of the area. Tuesday morning will bring some of the
coldest temperatures of the year with temperatures in the teens
not impossible, especially over the northern third of the forecast
area. For now, kept most areas at least in the lower 20s but
regardless, advisories for the cold temperatures at the very least
will be needed.

In addition to the frigid temperatures, concerns ramp up by
Tuesday morning for the possibility of wintry precipitation.
Models continue to be all over the place on the placement of the
features driving the chances and the timing in which those
features move into or near the area. Opted to keep the wintry
weather mentions in the forecast for the northern parts of the
area but there is still considerable uncertainty on type and
accumulation, if there is any. South of the tidal lakes, kept all
precipitation as liquid for now. Of course, any precipitation
that does fall as liquid and lingers would freeze Tuesday night.
There continues to be a large amount of uncertainty on the
eventual evolution of this event and while confidence is quite
low on the impacts, probabilities continue to suggest some wintry
precipitation will be seen in the area. That could easily change
in either direction with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Generally VFR conditions are forecast for the forecast period.
Ceilings will lower as the day goes on but should still remain
VFR. Introduced PROB30 to a few terminals closer to the coast for
some light rain at the very end of the forecast period as well
but heavier pockets could take a terminal down to MVFR at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Extended the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for all open
waters through noon as winds continue to be elevated. Winds should
begin to taper off later today and continue into tomorrow. By
the weekend, winds will ramp up again ahead of a cold front
pushing into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  35  61  35 /  10  20   0   0
BTR  60  40  63  39 /  20  30   0   0
ASD  59  41  62  38 /  10  40   0   0
MSY  58  45  61  43 /  30  50   0   0
GPT  57  41  61  39 /  10  40   0   0
PQL  61  40  65  37 /  10  40   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...SO