Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 070806
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
306 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday Night)...

High pressure remains anchored across the south-central Plains,
forecast to slowly drift into the lower MS valley region early
this morning. Model soundings early this AM indicate plenty of
radiative cooling processes/subsidence aloft in the vicinity of
this nearby high pressure, owing to clear/calm conditions across
all areas. We will be on the path towards yet another absolutely
beautiful day across the region, similar to yesterday with warm
afternoon highs and lower humidity after we mix out later this
afternoon. As mentioned yesterday, have once again pulled down
forecast Td`s from the blends as they typically struggle in this
anonymously dry mixing regime, bringing minimum RH`s into the
lower 30`s for many, especially across the northern 2/3rds of the
CWA. Can`t rule out some patchy, thin upper-level cirrus today
with subtle moisture advection in the 250-200mb layer, as well as
some contrails but overall a gorgeous day, just wish we can
copy/paste today all the way through the rest of the summer, but
one can dream.

Another pleasant night tonight and into the early morning hours
on Saturday, perhaps some patchy mid-level altocumulus associated
with increasing H5 to H7 moisture aloft. But otherwise, the
aforementioned high pressure will be generally settled into the
northern Gulf coast, beginning to transition to our east which
will help to rebuild a slow and steady moistening return flow back
into the surface to lower-tropospheric levels through the day
Saturday. This will help by making it feel not as dry as the
previous few days, but will remain rather warm into the afternoon
hours with several locations touching the mid 80`s. With the
increase in low-level/PBL moisture will come the return of some
low-level cumulus, or cloud streets but overall a pleasant day to
start the weekend.

Going into Saturday night and on Sunday, we begin to shift focus
to the west at rapid surface cyclogenesis ongoing across the
central US. Looking aloft, this system will develop quickly from
subtle troughing pressing east across the central Rockies, but
deamplifies/stretches progressing east into a weakening ridge.
This is a clear indication that this surface low will weaken as it
continues well to our north across the Midwest and eventual Ohio
valley on Sunday, but will attempt at driving a cold front south
and east with time into the lower MS valley/Arklatex region later
that day. Frontal orientation parallel to upper-level wind flow
will support little movement with this front, with a high
likelihood of most of the day on Sunday being dry. The feature to
monitor will be the potential for deep convection firing along
the front in east Texas/NW LA during peak heating, and how this
convection will (try) to propagate eastward. Not entirely
confident on this being possible just yet. Due to lower
confidence, have decided to ride with NBM PoP`s which brings
slight rain chances in the first half of the evening/early
overnight hours Sunday night generally along and north of I-10/12
and west of I-55, increasing/pulling south after midnight into
Monday morning. Will wait until CAM`s come into this forecast
time frame to better have an idea of storm mode/propagation
potential, which should appear more clear by early Saturdays
forecast package. KLG

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...

Monday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern as a
shortwave trough pushes off the eastern coast of the U.S. This
shortwave will cause a boundary to set up over our area, mainly in
the northern portions of our area. This boundary will linger
through Wednesday morning. Southerly surface winds will help to
enhance the warm air advection and moisture advection into the
region. Upper level divergence during the daytime hours will help
to enhance lifting in the environment. As a result, storms will be
stronger and more efficient during the peak daytime heating hours
Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday, an upper level low pressure system will
progress through the region and off the eastern coast of the U.S.
Southerly surface winds ahead of the system will help to enhance
the warm air advection and moisture advection into the area. Upper
level divergence will help to enhance the lifting in the
environment, particularly Thursday during the afternoon hours.
There will be the chance for strong storms associated with this
system moving through, but we are not expecting severe storms at
this time. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible inside
thunderstorm development as this system moves through, especially
on Thursday when the upper level divergence is more pronounced.
MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
.06Z TAF Package...

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period. Some wind changes greater than 30
degrees will be possible at some area airports, mainly KMSY. MSW

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain in control today through the upcoming
weekend, with clear and calm conditions expected through Sunday. A
steady Gulf return/onshore wind flow will begin on Saturday,
which may lead to some minor enhancement of waves/seas of around 3
to 5 feet for outer Gulf waters this weekend. Beyond this time
frame, a weak frontal boundary will become stationary across
or near the coast, leading to a few intervals of showers and
storms through about mid to late-week. Expect locally higher
waves/seas and gusty winds in any stronger thunderstorm
development during this time frame. High pressure builds back in
late-week into next weekend leading to calm and dry conditions to
return. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  53  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  83  56  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  83  55  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  65  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  82  57  80  66 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  81  54  80  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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