Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 221824 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 224 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue offshore through Wednesday. A cold front will move through the area late Wednesday night followed by high pressure building in from the north Thursday. The high will move offshore Friday with a Bermuda high pattern returning for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM Tuesday...Scattered convection over the nrn tier expected to lift NE and grad diminish thru early evening. Much of the night expected to be dry with no forcing over the region...did keep slight pops far N late as could see some remnant shra from activity well to the NW. Will be another muggy night with lows upr 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Tuesday...A cold front will approach from the N Wed then push SE thru the region Wed night. This front coupled with decent instab and deep moisture will lead to active weather Wed thru Wed evening. Should have enuf heating Wed for good instab to develop and although shear is not very strong NW flow aloft could lead to a strong to poss severe storm mainly acrs nrn tier where marginal risk is fcst by SPC. Have chc pops thru Wed morn then increase to likely later Wed nrn tier. Convection may weaken a bit with loss of heating Wed evening but expect good cvrg to grad shift S along/ahead of front and have likely pops thru evening central and S. Precip shld taper off from N to S late Wed night as drier air spreads in behind the front. Highs Wed mostly mid/upr 80s inland to lower 80s central and srn cst. Lows Wed night 65 to 70 N to lower 70s central and srn cst. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM Tuesday...Little change in the overall forecast for the extended period. Pattern flip to a somewhat drier scenario Thursday and Friday. Moisture increases again Saturday with another round of wet weather possible for early next week. Thursday through Saturday...Somewhat drier and slightly cooler weather will prevail Thursday and Friday. With the front sagging over the far southern CWA Thursday morning, will keep a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms for this area early in the day. By afternoon, drier air will be the rule as dewpoints drop into the low/mid 60s, which will be followed by low temperatures into the low/mid 60s inland and around 70 Outer Banks for Friday morning. Good model consensus for a no PoP forecast for Friday as high pressure shunts all of the precipitation to the south of our CWA. Winds veer to S/SW by Saturday as high pressure strengthens offshore and moisture starts to return to the south due to an upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures warm back to the mid 80s Saturday with a better chance of rain. Sunday and Monday...Deep moisture between low pressure along the central to western Gulf coast and strong high pressure anchored offshore will lead to increasing deep moisture for Sunday into early next week. Will continue forecast of higher PoPs and increasing SE/S winds Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /Through 18z Wed/... As of 1230 PM...Mainly VFR conditions expected thru period however will have brief threat for reduced vsbys and cigs in convection mainly nrn tier this aftn and all areas Wed morn thru early aftn. With low lvls remaining nearly saturated cant rule out some lower stratus trying to form late tonight however fcst soundings look marginal and guidance not showing much so will keep out. SW breeze shld limit threat for late night fog. Long Term /Wednesday afternoon through Saturday/... As of 350 AM Tuesday...Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will lead to frequent periods of sub-VFR conditions Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night. A somewhat drier airmass arrives Thursday and Friday behind a back door coldfront with VFR conditions likely. Increased moisture and a return to shower and thunderstorm activity will lead to a few periods of sub-VFR conditions for Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Wed/... As of 220 PM Tuesday...Increasing SSW winds expected to develop this aftn and cont into Wed ahead of approaching cold front. Winds will be mainly in the 10 to 20 kt range...however some gusts 20 to 25 poss at times espcly Pamlico Sound and outer waters. These winds will lead to seas grad building to 3 to 5 feet highest central waters. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday... as of 35 AM Tue...The front should pass across the CWA between 06z and 12z Thursday with winds becoming N/NE at generally 10-15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas of 3 to 5 feet Wed night will drop back to 2-4 feet for Thursday into Saturday. As high pressure strengthens offshore, winds veer to SE by Friday and become S/SW at 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts by Saturday. No Small Craft Advisories are anticipated for the extended period at this time. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...RF/CTC MARINE...RF/CTC

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