000
FXUS62 KMLB 260229
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1029 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Showers and even a few lightning storms managed to develop along
the west coast sea breeze a little earlier and covering a wider
area than expected late this afternoon, necessitating a short
fused forecast update to extend PoPs westward and across most of
ECFL. However, coverage remains isolated, so kept rain chances
limited to 30 pct or less, mostly 20 pct. A few sloppy showers,
just west of the I-95 corridor as of 1030 PM, continue to push
towards the coast and are expected to mostly dissipate or move
offshore by around midnight. A few showers and possibly a
lightning storm or two could linger near the Treasure Coast later
into the night. Another round of stratus and patching fog spill-
over from the west is expected late tonight into early Sunday
morning, especially along and north of the I-4 corridor. Overnight
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1028 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Tonight...High pressure over the western Atlantic, extending
across Florida, shifts slightly to the southeast. Winds S 10-15
kts, and 15-20 kts early tonight in the Brevard offshore waters,
veer slightly to S-SW and ease a little to around 10 kts (10-15
kts offshore Brevard) later tonight. Small craft should exercise
caution the first part of the night in the Brevard offshore
waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible until
around midnight north of Sebastian Inlet, while to the south,
could linger into the early morning. Seas 3-4 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Generally dry through the next 7 days with precip prospects for
Tue looking more sparse than previously advertised. Marginally low
min RH values below 40% Fri expected away from the coast for several
days, with L-M30s over the western interior. Winds don`t look to
get above 15mph except for possibly Tue afternoon as the cold
front nears the northern CWA, and more likely Wed as winds shift
to onshore/NE behind the front. However, by then the lowest RH
values (near 35%) should be confined across Lake County.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

ISO SH/TS pushing eastward wish the sea breeze late this evening.
Carry VCTS/VCSH at KDAB/KTIX until 03Z. Rain chances too low for
VC mention at coastal terminals south of KTIX. Another round of
IFR/LIFR CIG and patchy fog spill-over from the west at the
northern terminals expected tonight. Have lowered KLEE to LIFR
CIGs and MVFR VIS, and KISM/KMCO/KSFB to IFR CIGs. VFR conditions
resume by 13-14Z. VFR conditions -prevail at coastal terminals.
Light southwesterly winds tonight increasing to around 10 kts in
the morning, becoming southeasterly 12-15 kts with gusts around 20
kts along the coast with sea breeze.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1028 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Tonight/Sun...East coast sea breeze has formed from the Cape
southward and will progress slowly inland across the coastal
counties. No indication yet of a sea breeze along the Volusia
coast but it may yet form but will be held closer to the coast.
Late aftn and evening sea and lake breeze interactions will
produce isolated to scattered showers over the eastern side of the
FL peninsula. A few lightning storms are also possible. Increased
cloudiness and continued southerly flow will keep min temps very
mild with lows holding in the mid to upper 60s. Another round of
stratus and patchy fog expected over the interior late tonight and
early Sunday. Much above normal temps will continue Sunday under
south to southwest flow, turning southeast along the coast as the
sea breeze develops and pushes slowly inland. The sea breeze
should get a sightly earlier start as the 925-850mb flow will be
more southerly (less offshore component) and not as strong.
Nonetheless, near record highs will be possible once again.

Sunday night-Tuesday... Mid level ridge extending over the Greater
Antilles will cause zonal flow aloft to persist across FL through
early next week. On Tuesday, the flow aloft will veer more westerly
as a short wave trough moves eastward across the Midwest. At the
surface, the Atlantic surface ridge axis will remain over South
Florida through the early part of the week before weakening and
shifting eastward Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night as a weak
cold front moves into northern Florida. The cold front will shift
southward across central Florida overnight Tuesday.

While model guidance has continued its overall trend of lowering
rain chances as the front nears, guidance has extended the rain
chances slightly southward during this afternoon`s package.
Isolated showers and lightning storms Tuesday afternoon ahead of
the approaching cold front, with highest PoPs (20 percent)
occurring from Melbourne to Kissimmee northward. Rain chances
shift over the Atlantic waters overnight Tuesday as the front
passes, leaving the land areas mostly dry. Otherwise, expect hot
and dry conditions with plenty of sunshine through the period.
Temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time
of year, with some locations forecast to reach or exceed their
daily record high temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the low
90s west of I-95, with mid to upper 80s east of I-95 as the ECSB
forms and pushes onshore late each afternoon. Overnight lows will
be in the mid to upper 60s through Monday night, before dropping
into the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s across northern
Lake/Volusia, Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Flow aloft
veers to NW Wed-Thu between a developing western Atlantic trough
and central CONUS ridge, which will drive the front south of
central FL by late Wed afternoon. Northerly winds quickly veer NE
Wed night-Thu as the large post-frontal high pushes to the SE/mid-
Atlantic coast, and then SE-S as the high drifts east over the
western Atlantic and the ridge aloft shifts east over the top of
FL. Brief "cool down" through Wed night, followed by moderating
temps from late week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  87  65  87 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  68  92  68  92 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  67  87  67  88 /  20  10   0   0
VRB  66  87  65  88 /  30  10   0   0
LEE  69  92  68  92 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  68  92  68  92 /  20  10   0   0
ORL  69  93  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
FPR  67  86  66  86 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haley
LONG TERM....Pendergrast
AVIATION...Haley