737
FXUS62 KMLB 160105
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 907 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

- No rain in the forecast for the next 7 days.

- Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida
  this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s
  and near record high temperatures.

- Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into
  early next week. A Moderate HeatRisk will affect individuals
  sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling
  and/or adequate hydration.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Forecast on track for tonight, so no significant changes needed.
Dry airmass in place and high pressure extending over the west
Atlantic and Florida will maintain dry conditions, light winds
and mostly clear skies with some increase in thin cirrus clouds
aloft overnight. Hi-res guidance is in a little better agreement
showing some patchy fog development NW of I-4 late tonight through
early Friday, so have continued to keep that mention in the
forecast. Even if fog does not develop, the potential for settling
smoke producing limited visibilities will exist along any roadways
near any active or smoldering brush fires due to the lighter
winds forecast. Lows tonight will be near to slightly above normal
in the upper 60s to low 70s.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Current-Fri...A mid-level ridge over the western Gulf will continue
to build slowly eastward toward the south-central Gulf. Surface high
pressure ridging will take up residency across the south-central FL
peninsula. Light/variable morning winds will transition to light
SSW/SW (5-10 mph) across the interior and onshore at the coast (late
morning/early afternoon) with ECSB formation and slow march inland.
Mainly dry conditions as the warming trend continues with afternoon
max temps in the near 90F/L90s at the coast (Fri) and M90s into the
interior. Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon
values Fri in the M-U90s (perhaps 100F in a few spots across the
interior). Overnight lows generally well into the 60s to L70s. Some
late night patchy fog may develop north/west of the I-4 corridor
into early Fri morning.

Sat-Thu...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified...
The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and
rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will
continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with
potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even
exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a
better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast
where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach will
approach their record highs on Fri and Sat (See below). Peak heat
indices are forecast to gradually creep up reaching 100 to 105 early
next week. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast
with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is
worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while
these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our
summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not
at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals
sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration.

The next (small) chance for measurable rainfall may not be until
Thursday or Friday of next week, with approach/passage of a weak
front, though confidence remains low this far out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Previous Slightly Modified...High pressure ridge axis is forecast
to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly
across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the
weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce
largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW)
flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing to around 10 knots near
the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT
nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters
Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during
this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions will largely continue tonight into Friday. There is
a low potential for patchy fog development late tonight, which may
lead to tempo IFR/MVFR conditions from around 9-13Z. However, not
enough confidence to include mention in the TAFs at this time.
Winds will be mostly light and variable overnight, becoming W/SW
around 5-7 knots in the morning. Along the coast winds will then
become E/SE around 10-14 knots behind the inland moving east
coast sea breeze, with earlier development from KMLB southward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Previous Slightly Modified...Soils will quickly dry out next several
days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures climbing into
the low and mid 90s. Peak heat indices from Fri-Mon will approach
U90s to L-M100s. Drier air mixing down to the surface will produce
min RH values at or below critical values (35 percent) over the
interior especially Friday and Saturday. But winds will be light
(10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  70  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  70  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  69  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  69  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  69  97  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  69  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich