Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Today and Tonight...Cool dry high pressure centered over the Mid
TN Valley this morning will slowly cross the SE states over the
next 24-36H. The resulting NW flow will keep very dry conditions
in place locally with highs only in the U60s to L70s. Winds will
be noticeably lower than Wednesday with speeds increasing only to
around 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon. Winds and temperatures
will decrease markedly at dusk under clear skies lows will fall
into the U30s colder spots to M40s urban and beachfront areas with
light drainage winds around 2 to 6 mph.

Large H100-H70 anticyclone centered south of the ArkLaTex will push
acrs the Deep South/GOMex in the wake of the nor`easter lifting up
the Atlc seaboard. Progress will be slow as the center of the
anticyclone is positioned south of an H30-H20 jet core extending
from the nrn Rockies to the Carolina Coast, allowing the anticyclone
to be the dominant WX feature for central FL thru the upcoming

N/NW flow thru H100-H70 will prevail on Fri, veering to W/SW on Sat
as the anticyclone axis pushes acrs the FL Peninsula and into the FL
Straits. Dry/suppressed air mass will keep PWat values btwn 0.50"-
0.75" on Fri, increasing to 0.75"-1.00" by daybreak Sat as sfc/low
lvl winds shift to onshore, then to the south. H85-H70 profile shows
strong subsidence inversion and dewpoint depressions btwn 10-15C,
suggesting little in the way of meaningful precip chances, but will
go with slgt chc of predawn coastal -shras north of Sebastian Inlet
Sun night into Mon as a backdoor front works its way into the lcl

Gradual warming trend thru the weekend winds shift from a nrly
component to a srly component. Fri max temps in the U60s/L70s and
min temps in the U40s/L50s will be 5-10C blo avg. Temps recovering
to near avg on Sat with max temps in the M70s along the coast, U70s
interior...min temps in the M/U50s except L60s along the immediate
Treasure Coast. W/SW flow on Sun and minimal cloud cover will push
temps back abv avg with max temps in the L/M80s...mins in the

Models continue to bring a backdoor front into the lcl Atlc early
next week, with brisk H100-H70 winds shifting to N/NE by daybreak
Mon, bcmg E/NE by daybreak Tue. Mean RH lvls thru H100-H85
increasing to 80-90pct with onshore flow increasing to arnd 20kts
thru H100-H70. Close proximity of the post frontal high pres ridge
will maintain a strong subsidence inversion in the H90-H70 lyr,
keeping the lcl airmass suppressed and limiting atmospheric
instability. While N/NE flow regimes typically do not result in high
precip coverage for central FL, strength of the onshore component
suggests chc/slgt chc of low-topped shras over the coastal/interior
counties, respectively. Onshore flow will temper any large scale
temp swings, max/mins generally with 5F of climo avg.


VFR conds over the next 24-36 hours with no obstruction to sky or


Today and Tonight...Gradient winds/seas associated with approaching
high pressure will remain sufficient enough to carry current
advisory over all the marine area through late morning, then the
outer waters beyond 20 NM afterward. Further reduction in winds
expected tonight should allow for no more than a caution statement
for the Gulf Stream and vicinity.

Fri-Fri Night...Sfc/bndry lyr winds bcmg a light to gentle N/NW
breeze by midday as high pres approaches the FL peninsula. Seas 3-
4FT over the shelf waters and 4-5FT in the Gulf Stream early mrng,
subsiding to 2-3FT shelf waters and 3-4FT Gulf Stream by early

Sat-Sat Night...Hi pres building over the FL Peninsula in into the W
Atlc will force winds to shift from a light to gentle N/NE breeze at
daybreak to due east by midday, S/SE thru late aftn, then gentle to
moderate S/SW overnight. Seas 2-3FT shelf waters and 3-4FT Gulf

Sun-Sun Night...Shifting winds, esp overnight, as a backdoor frontal
boundary pushes into the lcl Atlc. Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze
thru the day, bcmg W/NW by sunset, bcmg N/NE in the predawn hrs.
Seas generally 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream. Chc of -shras
dvlpg, with the approaching front, mainly aft midnight.

Mon-Mon Night...Deteriorating boating conds as a NE wind surge
pushes the frontal boundary down the ern seaboard. Gentle to
moderate N/NE breeze at daybreak bcmg moderate to fresh E/NE by
early aftn, contg overnight. Seas building from NE to SW, bcmg
hazardous from Sebastian Inlet northward thru late aftn, then
areawide overnight. Seas north of the Inlet up to 4-6FT nearshore
and 6-8FT offshore in the aftn, then 6-8FT nearshore and 7-9FT
offshore overnight. South of Sebastian Inlet, seas generally 2-3FT
thru the day, up to 4ft in the Gulf Stream, but bcmg hazardous
overnight, building to 6-8FT nearshore and 7-9FT offshore.


Today...Development of critically low RH for 4 to 6 hours is
expected over much of the area. Low humidity and fuel conditions
require a Red Flag Warning for portions of central Florida this
afternoon from noon through 8 PM, including Metro Orlando,
Kissimmee, and the Space Coast.

Fri...Continuation of dry conds inland with winds beginning to
acquire slight onshore component, should spare coastal sections
from critically low RH. A watch has been posted however for inland
areas due to low RH duration and dry fuel.


DAB  66  42  68  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  70  44  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  41  69  52 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  70  43  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  41  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  68  43  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  69  45  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  70  40  70  53 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Indian River-Northern Brevard County-Orange-Osceola-
     Seminole-Southern Brevard County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 20-60 nm.



SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Bragaw is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.