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000
FXUS66 KMTR 012110
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
210 PM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will persist near the coast,
and continue to extend inland through the bays and into the
valleys night and morning hours. The modest warming trend that
began today is forecast to continue through the weekend, as upper
level high pressure builds over the area. Return to a cooling
trend then appears in store for the first part of next week, along
with intrusion of subtropical moisture aloft bringing the
possibility of some showers or even a thunderstorm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Current satellite imagery shows low cloudiness has now generally
cleared to the coast and coastal slopes south of the Golden Gate, with
widespread sunshine elsewhere. Early afternoon temperatures are
generally running several degrees warmer than the same time
Wednesday, though still well below seasonal norms for early June.
Latest model output shows a weak upper level ridge continuing to
build in over our area tonight and Friday. Associated warming of
the air mass aloft, and subsidence and diminishment of the marine
layer depth, will result in less widespread low cloud coverage
Friday morning and, at least away from the waters, several
degrees of additional increase in afternoon temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Upper level ridge development and warming aloft will continue
into the weekend. As of present, Sunday looks to be just a tad
warmer than Saturday, with the valleys then getting up into the
mid 80s and warmest inland locations the lower 90s. Coastal areas
will remain on the cool side however, as the marine layer,
stratus and onshore flow there persist.

As we then head into next week, ensemble guidance indicates
renewed upper level troughing along our coast, in this case
extending northward from a developing upper low center over the
Southern California Bight. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble and
deterministic model solutions indicate ensuing entrainment into
its circulation of upper level moisture from the Great Basin, and
its subsequent advection over our area from the east. This will
bring the possibility of some showers or even a thunderstorm the
first part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Becoming VFR into the afternoon with moderate to breezy westerly
winds. Winds reduce into the evening as low cloud cover moves inland
and fills over the Monterey Bay. Expect MVFR CIGs to continue to
build in the late night over the SF Bay and some IFR clouds will
fill portions of the North Bay. Cloud cover thins into the mid to
late morning Friday, with the Monterey Bay keeping CIGs into that
after afternoon. Moderate to breezy westerly winds return Friday
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR for the afternoon through the late night.
Expect gusty westerly winds  the night. MVFR CIGs struggle
to be consistent over SFO into early Friday while the eastern
portions of the bay fill. VFR returns mid Friday morning with
another gusty afternoon to follow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR lingers into the early afternoon.
VFR and moderate winds are expected through the rest of the
afternoon and into the early evening. Light winds return in the
evening with MVFR CIGs that last beyond the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1119 AM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Breezy and gusty northwest winds last through the weekend. Winds
will be strongest over the outer waters north of Pigeon Point. The
strong winds will generate steeper wind waves and hazardous
conditions.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ535.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ540-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for PZZ545-560.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ565.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blier
LONG TERM....Blier
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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