Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 170022
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
522 PM PDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A warming and drying trend will persist through
midweek and continue into the upcoming weekend. Breezy onshore
winds are also likely each afternoon and evening with the
potential for offshore winds to develop Thursday into Friday
across the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:51 PM PDT Monday...Widespread stratus
across the region earlier in the day has mostly dissipated with
the exception of around the Monterey Peninsula, along the San
Francisco Peninsula including much of the San Mateo County
coastline, and around Point Reyes. As such, mostly sunny
conditions have developed over the interior with just a few
passing high clouds. However, temperatures are running a few to
as much as 10 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday as
onshore flow has increased ahead of a mid/upper level trough
pushing inland to the north. Wind gusts remain strongest near the
coast, in the region`s higher terrain, across the coastal gaps,
and inland passes with gusts generally between 25 to 40 mph.

Look for drying conditions aloft to limit the depth of the marine
layer tonight into Tuesday morning. As a result, look for less
inland intrusion of stratus tonight into Tuesday morning with
temperatures dropping into the 40s to lower 50s (near the
coast/bays). A warming trend is then likely from Tuesday into
Wednesday as high pressure over the Pacific builds across the
region. This will bring daytime temperatures back into the
mid/upper 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday with upper 80s to lower 90s by
Wednesday. Meanwhile, breezy to at times gusty onshore flow near
the coast will likely hold temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s
through midweek.

Very slight cooling is expected on Thursday as another mid/upper
level trough drops into the Pacific Northwest. However, the colder
air mass looks to remain well enough to our north and inland to
keep temperatures above seasonal averages through late week. The
main impact will be an increase in northerly winds on Thursday and
Friday along with drying conditions. As the mid/upper level
trough exits the Pacific Northwest and drops southeastward into
the Great Basin, winds may turn offshore across the interior`s
higher terrain. Depending on the strength and placement of this
"inside slider", we`ll have to monitor for increased fire weather
concerns late in the week.

High pressure over the eastern Pacific will then remain the
dominate weather feature heading into the upcoming weekend. As
such, look for inland areas to remain in the 80s to lower 90s
while upper 60s to 70s will be common closer to the coast/bays.
Dry conditions and above average temperatures look to persist into
the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 5:22 PM PDT Monday...For the 00Z TAFs.
Predominantly VFR conditions with MVFR along the coast due to
lingering stratus. Satellite imagery shows marine stratus
dissipating and moving to the south as surface high pressure
builds over the eastern Pacific. This will pave the way for drier
conditions tonight with less stratus around most of the SF Bay
area. Hi-res models do show stratus lingering along the San Mateo
Coast and around Monterey Bay through the late morning, so
MVFR/IFR CIGs will be possible in these areas. Otherwise, breezy
and gusty onshore winds will settle down tonight and increase late
Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...Mainly VFR conditions with SCT low clouds
reported at the terminal and observed on area webcams. Satellite
imagery shows much clearing of stratus at the coast so stratus
feed should shutoff this evening. Few low clouds around tonight
but VFR should prevail, based on latest model guidance. Winds are
quite gusty, up to 35 kt in the last hour, and will likely remain
gusty through the evening. Breezy onshore winds continue tonight
into the morning, with more strong gusty winds Tuesday afternoon.

KSFO Bridge Approach...Scattered low clouds over the approach
should dissipate this evening.

Monterey Bay...BKN cloud deck (MVFR) at KMRY with FEW/SCT around
KSNS, and clear over northern parts of the Bay. Expecting low
stratus to expand over area terminals towards sunset, or possibly
earlier. MVFR/IFR CIGs tonight through Tuesday morning. Breezy to
gusty onshore winds diminish tonight and return Tuesday late
morning/afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...as of 03:09 PM PDT Monday...Increasing northwest winds
today with gale force gusts developing across much of the coastal
waters. Winds may diminish slightly midweek, but coastal jets will
still be strong in the afternoons and evenings, generating steep
and hazardous wind driven seas. Even stronger northerly winds
expected late Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay
             SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: Lorber
MARINE: Lorber

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