916
FXUS66 KMTR 162007
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
107 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Quiet weather continues with a persistent marine layer through the
weekend. Calm and cloudy mornings will transition to breezy and
clear afternoons. A weak cold front will move through next week,
bringing stronger westerly winds and cooler inland temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Stratus is continuing to clear. SW flow is delaying the clearing
in Santa Cruz, Marin, and Sonoma counties, but there should be a
few hours of sunshine before the next round of clouds develop this
evening. The marine layer is quite deep, with the Ft. Ord profiler
showing marine air from the surface to roughly 2,200 ft. This is
quite a bit deeper than models suggest, which has led to some
issues with the forecast. Not only are the deeper clouds
penetrating further inland than expected, some of the thicker
cloud decks have been producing measurable drizzle and light rain
in Monterey, Santa Cruz and Napa counties early this morning. The
forecast was adjusted to show a 15% chance of rain and 0.01" QPF
for these areas tomorrow, as there is no synoptic reason for the
marine layer to compress very much.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

The same pattern will continue through the weekend with cloudy
mornings and clear afternoons. The jet stream will take a dip
south next week, causing a transition to a troughing pattern early
next week. This pattern looks to persist through the week and will
bring a few weak cold fronts, cooler temperatures, and breezy NW
winds. Coastal drizzle may become a bit more prominent at times as
well. High temperatures will reamin in the 60s along the coast,
but will cool to the 70s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

A 2,000 ft deep marine layer is proving persistent. The clouds
are mixing out this morning, and the terminals should enjoy a VFR
window this afternoon. NW winds will be moderate to strong before
decreasing overnight. The stratus return will be similar to last
night with a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings expected.

Vicinity of SFO...Due to southerly flow, SFO managed to dodge a
ceiling this morning, and the window has now closed as the cloud
bank retreats for the day. Winds will soon shift to westerly as
the sea breeze kicks in. Low clouds are expected to return
overnight and there is a 50% chance of developing an IFR ceiling
in the morning at both SFO and OAK. The visibility should reamin
VFR with moderate winds persisting overnight.

Monterey Bay Terminals...While the clouds are getting thinner,
they skies are only expected to open up for a few hours this
afternoon before an early return of stratus this evening at both
MRY and SNS. Otherwise W-NW winds will be moderate this afternoon
before decreasing overnight. With the deep marine layer, there is
also a chance for coastal drizzle in the early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean shift
eastward towards California. As a result, the pressure gradient
will tighten and northwesterly winds will increase, particularly
over the northernmost zones and outer waters. Significant wave
heights will build to very rough over the outer waters through
early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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