Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 290021
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
421 PM PST Fri Feb 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures once again with highs in the 70s.
Cooler temperatures around the region over the weekend as a cold
front moves through. A chance of showers for areas along the
Central Coast, but accumulations will be minimal. Winds will shift
to the north and become breezy. The next dry, warming trend begins
on Monday as high pressure builds once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:35 PM PST Friday...High clouds still
abound around the Bay Area, but diurnal mixing has helped offer
clearer skies around the Central Coast. But those high clouds will
continue to move onshore from the ocean, as they are the leading
piece to a system making its way toward the region. Closer to the
surface, the stratus deck lurks just off the California coastline.
Temperatures are in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures
should continue to rise into the mid 70s with some areas reaching
the upper 70s. Winds are light and variable.

Winds will become more onshore through the day, and overnight will
see lows in the 40s for the first time in a while. The cooling trend
tonight will extend into the weekend as high temperatures are
forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler. The cold front will come
through overnight from Saturday into Sunday, providing limited
chances of rain. Showers will be possible on Sunday morning for
areas south of San Jose and the Central Coast. Accumulations should
be minimal.

Winds are expected to pick up behind the front and shift to the
north as the system exits to the south. Strongest wind gusts are
forecast in higher elevations of the North Bay Mountains and East
Bay Hills up to 35 mph, but below critical thresholds. That being
said, the region is in an incredible dry-streak. While it is below
most thresholds, caution should be used for any prescribed burning.

High pressure builds during the early work week (and first week of
March). While temperatures will warm back into the upper 60s and
70s, it will also resume fair and dry weather conditions. Longer
range models are showing the chances of precipitation after March
10, but it is still too far out to have a lot of confidence at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:15 PM PST Friday...Satellite image is
obscured by high clouds but low clouds have been spotted along the
coast especially around the MRY Bay Area. Approaching upper
trough should give the low clouds an onshore push. MVFR/IFR cigs
are forecast for SFO but not until after 06Z. Lower confidence on
how long the stratus stays in on Saturday but it should clear up
by midmorning as winds increase.

Vicinity of KSFO...Low cigs possible after 06Z with bases 800-1000
feet. Forecast clearing after 16Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Becoming IFR cigs through late morning
Saturday.


&&

.MARINE...as of 03:44 PM PST Friday...Gradually increasing
northerly winds across the waters this weekend through early next
week. Small craft level winds will strengthen to gale force winds
across the waters north of PPigeon Point as well as the Big Sur
coast later tonight through tomorrow night and beyond. Steep fresh
swell from these winds will also  create hazardous conditions on
the waters. A moderate long period  northwest swell will move
across the waters over the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 9 PM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 AM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DK
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: DRP

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