-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
971
FXUS64 KOHX 130033
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
733 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
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Updated at 731 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend, best
  chances are in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Risk of severe weather is low, however, localized heavy rain,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with
  isolated stronger storms.

- Warmth continues into the work week, with 20 - 30% chance of
  heat indices greater than 100 degrees.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 733 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Some storms are approaching from Kentucky this evening, but not
expecting too much out of them for most of us here in Middle
Tennessee. We are watching for our northwestern counties though;
severe weather is not expected. Forecast remains on track.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As of 15z, the radar is quiet across Middle Tennessee. There are
some scattered Cu that have developed along and east of I-65. This
is in response to a weak shortwave that is noted on water vapor
imagery. Behind the wave, PWAT values are notably lower with a
pocket in West Tennessee indicating values of less that 1.5" while
the plateau currently have PWAT values greater than 1.8". Visible
satellite shows a lack of Cu growth over West Tennessee due to
the drier sinking air. Looking at the 12z CAMS, the afternoon
storm activity is pretty suppressed over Middle Tennessee thanks
to this more convectively-hostile air. That doesn`t mean we won`t
see a couple of isolated storms pop up, but I feel like the CAMs
are onto something with the limited activity through the mid
afternoon. The one area we`ll need to watch is the northwest late
in the afternoon and into the evening as storms develop over
northwest AR, eastern MO, and southern IL and push eastward. This
could move into our area after 00z and gradually weaken through
03-04z as it moves east.

A couple additional scattered showers and storms may develop
overnight as deeper moisture advects back into the area. Sunday will
see the potential for diurnal convection mainly after 17z. As far as
the potential for severe storms today and Sunday, outside the
isolated risk for a strong wind gust with storms moving into the
northwest this evening, I don`t see much potential. Rainfall
could be heavy with some of the activity, but storm motions should
be around 20 mph which is progressive enough to prevent a flash
flooding threat. Highs today and Sunday will be in the mid 80s on
the plateau and the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Afternoon
heat index values will be around 100 degrees west of the plateau
each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As we move into the next work week, we`ll keep the diurnal storm
chances. Activity on Monday and Tuesday will be fairly scattered in
nature with Middle Tennessee along the northern periphery of the
upper high. The upper high may weaken some as we get into the mid to
late week period which will increase the diurnal activity. Highs
through the week will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
afternoon heat indicies in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight
lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with a few
exceptions. Watching line of TSRA that may be able to hold it
together to impact KCKV between 01Z-03Z bringing brief MVFR/IFR
Conditions, but think the line should decay enough not to impact
KBNA or KMQY. Otherwise, some -BR/BCFG could briefly develop at
KCSV and KSRB between 09Z-13Z. More TSRA development expected
after 18Z, however pinpointing impacts and locations are too
difficult to include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      74  93  75  93 /  10  50  10  40
Clarksville    72  90  73  89 /  30  50  20  40
Crossville     67  87  67  88 /  20  40  10  50
Columbia       72  92  72  92 /  10  50  10  40
Cookeville     69  88  70  88 /  20  40  10  60
Jamestown      68  87  68  88 /  30  40  10  50
Lawrenceburg   71  91  71  91 /  10  50  10  40
Murfreesboro   72  93  72  93 /  10  50  10  40
Waverly        71  90  71  89 /  20  50  20  40
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Holley
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Hurley