Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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907 FXUS64 KOHX 191908 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 208 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .DISCUSSION... It`s a puffy cumulus kind-of day across Middle TN with temperatures running around seasonal averages for most everyone (it`s a little cooler than average on the Plateau). Look for clouds to dissipate around sunset and overnight lows should fall into the 40s for everyone under starry skies. Tomorrow should be more of the same, though slightly warmer, but clouds should start to increase throughout the day as we sit in anticipation of our next weather maker due in here tomorrow night. Tomorrow night`s cold front will be rather strong. Not in the sense of severe weather rather, an unseasonable CP air mass will follow it. As that cold air trails the light rain expected with the front, we could very well see a mix of wintry precip for a couple of hours tomorrow night (maybe some sleet, maybe some flurries, depending where you`re located). However, with no accumulation expected (the ground is just too warm) and the very short duration, I`m not even going to mention it in the zones. Models push it off the Plateau around sunrise Wednesday and there are no expected impacts from the precip -- other than a few oooos and aaaahs. What may have an impact is the temperatures Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings. Wednesday morning, while temperatures are expected to dip into the mid 30s, winds will still be gusty behind the front. This should eliminate the concern of frost, but Wind Chills should be in the upper 20s. Yeah. That`s chilly. Winds will die down throughout the day Wednesday and as clouds push east and high pressure moves in, radiational cooling Wednesday night should help frost develop across all of Middle TN. A few spots may even dip below freezing on the Plateau. Friday morning will be chilly too, but the frost should be limited to areas east of I-65. Our next chance of rain looks to move in early Saturday morning. This will make for a crummy, wet day, but at least this front will bring some much needed rainfall to the area. I`ve precluded any mention of thunder at this point, as the surface low looks to remain south of the mid-state, but this may need to be adjusted as there is some disagreement in our major models as the 12Z Euro continues to push the surface low directly over Middle TN. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A surface ridge is moving across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, so look for generally light winds this afternoon and overnight, then increasing from the SSW after 12Z tomorrow. Expect some radiation fog at CSV late tonight and tomorrow morning. Otherwise, it`s VFR wx thru the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 47 73 37 54 36 / 0 0 40 10 0 Clarksville 44 69 35 53 35 / 0 10 50 0 0 Crossville 41 69 35 48 30 / 0 0 50 10 0 Columbia 44 73 36 54 35 / 0 0 30 10 0 Lawrenceburg 45 73 36 54 35 / 0 0 30 10 0 Waverly 44 73 35 54 36 / 0 10 50 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Unger AVIATION........08

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