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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
907
FXUS64 KOHX 191908
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
208 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...

It`s a puffy cumulus kind-of day across Middle TN with temperatures
running around seasonal averages for most everyone (it`s a little
cooler than average on the Plateau). Look for clouds to dissipate
around sunset and overnight lows should fall into the 40s for
everyone under starry skies. Tomorrow should be more of the same,
though slightly warmer, but clouds should start to increase
throughout the day as we sit in anticipation of our next weather
maker due in here tomorrow night.

Tomorrow night`s cold front will be rather strong. Not in the
sense of severe weather rather, an unseasonable CP air mass will
follow it. As that cold air trails the light rain expected with
the front, we could very well see a mix of wintry precip for a
couple of hours tomorrow night (maybe some sleet, maybe some
flurries, depending where you`re located). However, with no
accumulation expected (the ground is just too warm) and the very
short duration, I`m not even going to mention it in the zones.
Models push it off the Plateau around sunrise Wednesday and there
are no expected impacts from the precip -- other than a few oooos
and aaaahs. What may have an impact is the temperatures
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings.

Wednesday morning, while temperatures are expected to dip into the
mid 30s, winds will still be gusty behind the front. This should
eliminate the concern of frost, but Wind Chills should be in the
upper 20s. Yeah. That`s chilly. Winds will die down throughout the
day Wednesday and as clouds push east and high pressure moves in,
radiational cooling Wednesday night should help frost develop across
all of Middle TN. A few spots may even dip below freezing on the
Plateau. Friday morning will be chilly too, but the frost should be
limited to areas east of I-65.

Our next chance of rain looks to move in early Saturday morning.
This will make for a crummy, wet day, but at least this front will
bring some much needed rainfall to the area. I`ve precluded any
mention of thunder at this point, as the surface low looks to remain
south of the mid-state, but this may need to be adjusted as there is
some disagreement in our major models as the 12Z Euro continues to
push the surface low directly over Middle TN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A surface ridge is moving across Middle
Tennessee this afternoon, so look for generally light winds this
afternoon and overnight, then increasing from the SSW after 12Z
tomorrow. Expect some radiation fog at CSV late tonight and
tomorrow morning. Otherwise, it`s VFR wx thru the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  73  37  54  36 /   0   0  40  10   0
Clarksville    44  69  35  53  35 /   0  10  50   0   0
Crossville     41  69  35  48  30 /   0   0  50  10   0
Columbia       44  73  36  54  35 /   0   0  30  10   0
Lawrenceburg   45  73  36  54  35 /   0   0  30  10   0
Waverly        44  73  35  54  36 /   0  10  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08