Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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193 FXUS61 KOKX 200606 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 206 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Deepening low pressure lifts up into the Canadian Maritimes today, while high pressure builds in slowly from the Midwest into Monday, then moves offshore late Monday. A coastal low approaches from the southeastern seaboard Tuesday, and moves through Wednesday, and to the northeast of the area Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Cold advection and a strong pressure gradient behind departing low pressure will continue gusty NW winds of 25 to 30 mph this morning. There could be some lulls with the more frequent gusts near the coast. Temperatures will drop into the 30s which is close to 10 degrees below normal. This coupled with the gusty winds will make it feel more like the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Deepening low pressure continues to track across the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, while high pressure builds east from the Midwest. This will maintain a gusty NW flow into early Friday evening. Outside of some instability clouds on Friday, expect mostly clear skies with temperatures remaining below normal. While warmer than Thursday, highs will only top out in the lower 50s, with lows Friday night in the lower to mid 30s. There could be some patchy frost as well across the interior as winds diminish overnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will be over the region Saturday into Monday. Meanwhile, cyclonic upper flow will remain into Sunday as a longwave trough and closed low remains across eastern Canada and into the northeast. A southern stream shortwave moves slowly out of the plains and into the southeastern states Sunday night into Monday. Some weak energy does rotate through the upper trough into Sunday, however, with low level subsidence and little moisture the area remains dry with little cloudiness. Guidance similar through Monday. Thereafter the handling of the southern stream wave diverges. , And latest guidance now handling wave differently from previous runs. The GFS keeps a more cutoff and closed system for a time over the southern states and then the shortwave trends to becoming negative. This has resulted in the surface low now being a little slower moving north along the coast. Meanwhile the ECMWF keeps an open wave and is more progressive and farther east from the track of the GFS for the surface low. Aimed for a compromise and a slower solution, thus having chance to likely probabilities late Tuesday night into Thursday. No p-type issues, all light rain Tuesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A series of weak troughs of low pressure cross the area through this afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the west into tonight. VFR through the TAF period. WNW-NW winds G20-25KT early this morning, except no gusts/only occasional gusts KEWR/KISP/KBDR/KSWF/KGON. Winds become NW15-20KT throughout and gust to around 25-30KT by around midday. Wind gusts abate this evening, with speeds decreasing to around 10KT. Except for at KEWR through 12Z, moderate to high confidence in winds to the right of 300 True through the TAF period. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Late tonight-Tuesday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-20KT possible Saturday night. && .MARINE... Behind a departing low lifting up into the Canadian maritimes today, gusty NW winds continue. Sub-SCA conditions develop from west to east during the aft/eve hours. High pressure will be over the forecast waters Saturday into Monday, then slide off the northeast coast Monday night into Tuesday. Winds and seas will be below SCA levels through Tuesday. Low pressure moves north along the coast Tuesday into Thursday. A developing southerly flow late Monday will persist and increase into Wednesday. By Tuesday night ocean seas are expected to build to SCA levels. At this time ocean seas may not build as high as forecast and will depend on the strength of the southerly flow and track of the low midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... The next chance of rain is expected Tuesday night into Thursday. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected at this time. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/DW NEAR TERM...JMC/NV/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...MET/DW HYDROLOGY...MET/DW EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.