101
FXUS66 KOTX 182148
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 PM PDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A robust cold front will push into and across the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and into tonight. This front will be
accompanied by a shift to strong north to northeast winds, as
well as a chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Much cooler temperatures will move in behind the front for Monday.
Dry and warming temperatures return through at least Wednesday.
Then additional precipitation chances arrive Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is just now pushing into far NE Washington and N
Idaho this afternoon. A shift and strengthening of winds will
likely be the main impactful weather, and Wind Advisories for
portions of the region remain on track, along with the potential
for blowing dust. In addition to the wind, the chance for showers
and isolated embedded thunderstorms will continue through the
evening, though mainly limited to far eastern WA and northern ID.
The front passes through rather quickly, and by daylight Monday,
the main lingering factor will be the much cooler temperatures in
place. /KD

Monday night through Sunday: The weather pattern remains dry and
mild through early this week, but turns more active Thursday into
next Sunday. Monday night to Wednesday the area will be in a
split north to northwest flow. A ridge builds in with the primary
storm track keeping systems outside of our region. Temperatures
warm into the 60s Tuesday and the 70s Wednesday, with clear to
mostly clear skies. Tuesday afternoon does bring some breeziness,
especially over the open Columbia Basin. Gusts of 15-20 mph will
be possible.

Late Wednesday night a system starts to drop down from Canada,
with increasing clouds. Going into Thursday precipitation chances
expand over northeast WA and north ID in the morning, then expand
out across much of the eastern third of WA and ID. The deeper
basin and all but the crest of the Cascades is more likely to
remain dry. The afternoon instability and shortwave passing will
combine to bring some thunderstorm threat over the eastern third
of WA and ID as well. The overall potential for precipitation
declines through southeast WA and ID late Thursday evening into
Friday, leaving only limited chances over the ID Panhandle
Mountains, Camas Prairie, higher Blues and immediate Cascade
crest. This system will also come with another increase in winds
Thursday, especially down the Okanogan Valley into western basin.
Gusts of 15-25 mph are forecast at this point, but this will be
fine-tuned as more data comes in. Winds are forecast to remain
breezy Friday, though maybe just slightly lower speeds.

Going into next weekend the pattern starts to shift, with a deeper
low digging in over the northeast Pacific. This shifts the flow to
more of a west to southwest direction. This increases the
moisture and overall threat of precipitation area-wide, though the
best threat will be near the Cascades and over southeast WA into
the ID Panhandle. There is some instability but overall models are
not showing a significant thunderstorm PoPs, yet it would not
surprise me to see that threat increase and some be added to the
forecast for next weekend. Once again look for some low-grade
breezy conditions during the afternoon hours.

From Thursday onward there is less confidence in the temperature
forecast, as there is quite a spread in the numbers the various
models are showing (with around a 10-15 degree difference). At
this time the forecast indicates temperatures slightly above
normal, but if there is more cloud cover or precipitation values
could be closer to normal. /Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front approaching from the northeast will increase
winds today from 21Z onward. Blowing dust or haze is possible
over the basin with reduced visibilities (GEG/MWH). The strongest
winds will come after 00Z with gusts near 30-40 kts. There will
also be a threat of showers and thunderstorms near COE,PUW,GEG,SFF
but the risk is slight. Any thunderstorms could produce higher
gusts. Gusty winds will continue through the overnight hours
decreasing in speeds after 09Z, with the potential for showers
ending after 09Z as well. /KD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  59  34  63  36  70 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  57  31  62  33  67 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        34  57  32  61  33  66 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  37  68  38  72 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  63  32  67  34  72 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  56  31  60  32  65 /  60   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        33  53  33  57  34  63 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     42  66  34  71  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      44  64  41  68  43  74 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  66  38  71  40  75 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Monday for
     Coeur d`Alene Area.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northern
     Panhandle.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan Valley-
     Waterville Plateau.

     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Monday for
     Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$