287
FXUS66 KOTX 152029
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
129 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday due to warm, dry,
  and windy conditions.

- Moderate to locally major HeatRisk through Monday evening

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend
into next week, with the highest temperatures expected on
Monday. Fire weather will be a concern Tuesday with warm, dry
conditions and gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement that an
upper level trough will swing into British Columbia in Tuesday,
sending a strong dry cold front across Central and Eastern
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. A mid level dry- slot will
result in drier air mixing down, which combined with a tight
pressure gradient and cold advection will bring critical fire
weather conditions where fuels have cured and reached critical
levels across Central and Eastern Washington. Sustained winds
increasing to 20-30 MPH with gusts of 35-45 MPH, locally to 50
MPH, combined with relative humidity down to 12-23% will lead to
rapid fire spread with any new or existing fires. The strongest
winds are expected in the Wenatchee area and Waterville
Plateau, which are under a wind advisory as well. These winds
have the potential to kick up areas of blowing dust across the
Columbia Basin. Exact locations of dust, and degree of
visibility restrictions carries lower confidence. Lastly,
several fires burning south of Yakima and around the Tri-Cities
has the potential to bring some smoke towards the palouse at
times.  Following the frontal passage, it will remain gusty
Tuesday evening before winds decrease overnight into Wednesday
although it will still remain breezy into Wednesday.

Thursday through Monday: A dry northwest flow remains over the
area Thursday, before another trough slides into British
Columbia Friday into Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles
suggest another dry cold front passage bringing another round of
fire weather concerns, while the Canadian ensembles are much
weaker. NBM currently shows a slight cooling trend and breezy
winds, although if the stronger GFS/ECMWF solutions pan out
could be a windier period and something we will continue to keep
a close eye on. Following this trough, another dry northwest
flow pattern returns.

Temperatures through the week into early next week will remain
above normal (although not as warm as today). No precipitation
is forecast for the next 7 days, except for a 15 percent chance
of showers over the northern mountains into the ID Panhandle
next weekend with the mainly dry trough passage. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: A weak disturbance will pass across the Inland
Northwest and spread mid to high clouds across the region today.
Low levels of the atmosphere will remain dry with conditions
remaining VFR. Southwest winds will increase a bit in the
afternoon during peak mixing with gusts up to 18-22 kts at KMWH-
KGEG/KSFF. Winds become gusty and switch out of the northwest
at KEAT after 23Z late this afternoon into this evening with
gusts up to 25 kts for a few hours before gusts relax later in
the evening after 04Z. A strong cold front sweeps through after
this TAF period for Tuesday with strong westerly winds that will
bring the potential for smoke impacts from and new fire starts
or ongoing fires, and the potential for blowing dust over the
Columbia Basin.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions Monday through Monday night. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        62  86  54  82  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  52  80  52  82 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        57  84  50  77  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       61  92  57  84  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       56  86  50  81  47  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      56  84  51  78  49  81 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        58  83  51  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     62  88  52  86  52  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      68  83  58  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           64  87  53  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone
     709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
     Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin
     (Zone 707).

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

ID...None.

&&

$$