950
FXUS64 KOUN 261927
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
227 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Visible satellite shows widespread cumulus across much of our area,
with the most extensive vertical development seen across
southeast Oklahoma. This is where the best chance will be for
isolated showers and storms this afternoon, though still a low
chance overall (20-30%). Later tonight, we will likely see low
stratus and perhaps some patchy fog return to southeast and south-
central Oklahoma.

Saturday looks to be very similar to today with near normal
temperatures and low chances for shower and storms across
southeastern/eastern Oklahoma during the afternoon. We will also
have to watch for a few showers/storms that could make it into far
western Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening, but this is a very
low probability as of now (<10% chance).

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

By Sunday the upper low/trough that has been lingering over the area
will begin to lift out, making way for more substantial ridging
to build into the area. This will lead to a warming trend as we
head into the early and middle portion of next week, with a return
to triple digit heat indicies across much of the area as early as
Monday and continuing through at least Thursday of next week.
There are hints in much of the ensemble guidance that the ridge
will retrograde by the end of next week, which would suggest some
relief from the hottest temperatures and perhaps an increase in
rain chances as well.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Stratus ceilings are rising across central through southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas as terminals KOKC, KOUN, KDUA,
and KSPS should go VFR at least by 20Z if not before. All of our
terminals in western and northern Oklahoma should stay well under
VFR conditions through the entire forecast period. Isolated
convection may develop late this afternoon through sundown
(21-01Z) across southeast Oklahoma which should only affect
terminal KDUA perhaps returning to MVFR conditions although so
TSRA isolated and probabilities so low will only have a VCTS in
their taf. Stratus deck expected to return in the morning from
11-15Z with lowered ceiling across southeast into central Oklahoma
and western north Texas with terminals in that area reducing to
IFR conditions while additional fog could also reduce visibilities
at terminal KDUA. High pressure across the U.S. Great Lakes Region
will maintain southeast surface winds across our terminals around
10 kts. Surface winds will veer more southerly after 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  90  71  94 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         68  94  72  98 /   0  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  94  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           67  94  71 100 /  10  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     69  91  71  95 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         70  88  71  92 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68