Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 222306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
606 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Latest radar loop depicts shower development occurring over
portions of northern Oklahoma. Based on latest radar trends and
high resolution guidance, increased POPs across northern OK for
this afternoon and evening, especially for areas near Ponca City
and Stillwater.


(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Overcast skies are expected this evening through Friday, with some
clearing possible over the western zones tomorrow afternoon. There
remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to the prog`d surface low
and associated warm front and dry line tomorrow as the mid-level
trough ejects from Arizona early Friday morning. General model
consensus indicates the surface low develops over the TX panhandle
Friday morning and tracks southeast towards north TX. The HRRR
model has trended slower and farther north with the surface low
(from 06 to 12Z runs), which would place our area in the warm
sector longer with perhaps a more quickly eroding cap and higher
MLCAPE. This, however, tends to be the outlier. Areas of drizzle
appear likely beginning early Friday morning to midday over much
of the area and a strong cap will be in place.

There is the potential for scattered thunderstorms tracking
across north Texas and S/SE Oklahoma Friday morning into early
afternoon, some of which may be strong to marginally severe. Activity
that develops over north TX will affect the amount of low-level
moisture that reaches Oklahoma, and therefore, could affect storm
chances in the afternoon. CAMS suggest that supercells may develop
near the triple point Friday afternoon somewhere over our western
zones, depending on the track of the surface cyclone. Moderate to
strong instability appears likely over southwestern Oklahoma and
western north TX and sufficient bulk shear values should enable
developing storms to begin rotating rather quickly. Large hail,
damaging winds, and an isolated tornado appears possible. With
high PW values near 1.6 inches, there is also a marginal risk of
flash flooding for east- central Oklahoma.



(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

An upper ridge builds over the area over the weekend as Friday`s
storms system departs to the east. This will allow for a warming
trend with temperatures finally reaching above average Sunday after
our recent cool stretch. Winds will increase by Sunday as well as
lee cyclogenesis occurs east of the Rockies. This will likely lead
to a period of increased fire danger across western Oklahoma
and western north Texas Sunday through Tuesday.

Tuesday still looks to be a potentially active severe weather day
for at least the eastern half of the area, but many details still
need to be worked out in the model guidance. The GFS remains faster
with the trough and further east with the dryline, while the ECM is
slower with the trough and depicts a more impressive
instability/shear combo across much of the area. Trends will
continue to be monitored as we are still many days out from the

The rest of next week looks fairly quiet after this system passes,
with temperatures returning to near normal and ridging building into
the region.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

VFR conditions this evening will drop to MVFR overnight with some
fog and then to IFR around or just after sunrise with the
development of drizle and fog. Mainly anticipate light southeast
winds overnight. Drizzle may linger through much of the morning
before it dissipates and ceilings rise back to MVFR. However will
see an increase in showers and thunderstorm chances during the
afternoon hours tomorrow.


Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for tomorrow, April 23rd at 12Z and
tentatively tomorrow afternoon.


Oklahoma City OK  59  50  67  50 /  20  20  80  70
Hobart OK         57  49  73  46 /  20  20  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  60  52  75  52 /  20  20  50  20
Gage OK           56  44  69  40 /  20  10  30  30
Ponca City OK     59  48  65  48 /  60  40  80  80
Durant OK         63  53  70  55 /  10  20  90  60




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