800
FXUS64 KOUN 160818
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
218 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

- Cold front arrives tomorrow - very warm ahead of it, and much
  colder behind it.

- Several days of very cold weather from Saturday through Tuesday.

- Chances for snow exist, especially on Monday, but totals would
  be light.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Today will be beautiful enough to make you question whether it`s
really January or not. Pressure falls over the northern Plains will
lead to moderately breezy southwest winds across our area, and a
building ridge throughout the day will keep cloud cover away. With
that, temperatures will be primed to soar into the 60s south of I-40
and approach 60 to the north of it.

Moderate conditions will continue tonight as winds shift from
southwesterly towards southerly. This will help keep temperatures
above freezing. Cloud cover will increase overnight, especially in
western north Texas and adjacent southwest Oklahoma, as an upper-
level trough approaches.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

If today isn`t enough to make you question whether it`s January or
late March, then early tomorrow will be enough to get you looking at
your calendar. A broad surface low will form near the 100th meridian
in the morning and sweep eastward along the Red River during the
day.

To the north of the low, the first of several cold frontal
surges that will occur this week will approach northern Oklahoma by
the afternoon. To the south of that front, the prefrontal trough
zone stands a good chance of getting well into the 60s (in Oklahoma)
and potentially into the 70s (in Texas). Ahead of the low, some
models are showing an area of light showers across southern
Oklahoma. However, model soundings show unsaturated boundary layers
with dewpoint depressions in the 10-20 range. Thus, it appears this
shower activity is largely rooted in mid-level warm advection, and
might manifest itself largely in the form of virga.

By late afternoon, the front will be rambling southward through the
area. The initial frontal passage plus the onset of nighttime will
cause some places to drop 20 or more degrees in 6 hours. With that
said, the real Arctic air won`t reach our area until early Saturday,
and thus most places will still see lows near or a little below
freezing.

That colder air will continue filtering in on Saturday, holding
temperatures fairly steady throughout the day. There is still a
signal for light snow primarily across the western 1/3 of our area
from late Saturday morning through early Saturday night, but
accumulations will be light if this does occur.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

I will NOT be starting out a third section of this AFD by writing
"You will question whether it`s January". There will be no doubting
it - the long term period will be characterized by a rather
prolonged cold snap.

That cold snap will peak between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning.
Although there`s still some uncertainty on these numbers, right now
we`re forecasting that Sunday morning will have a wind chill between
0-10. This drops to a range between 5 below and 5 above on Monday
and Tuesday mornings.

The best chance for snow in the upcoming week looks to be in
northwest Oklahoma early on Monday as an embedded shortwave trough
approaches. Overall, synoptic-scale forcing looks to be weak.
Thus it tracks that ensemble probabilities suggests a 30-60%
chance for an inch or more of snow in the region; there simply
does not appear to be any meteorological reason to expect
significant accumulation. Thus, this may be one of those cases
where the probability of any snow in the region increases, but the
forecasted amounts don`t rise with those probabilities.

The better chance for impactful weather will likely stay to our
south on Tuesday as the large-scale trough trundles by. We could see
a brief warm-up on Tuesday/Wednesday, though there is a signal for
another cold front toward the middle of the week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue with light
and variable winds.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  37  62  27 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         61  37  68  28 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  38  72  33 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           59  35  57  22 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  34  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  38  61  35 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10