Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 191548 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Some showers/storms will be possible this afternoon. Have expanded
PoPs a little NW from the previous forecast bringing them into
parts of central OK. Heavy rain will be possible this afternoon.
Made some adjustments to sky cover, winds, and dewpoints to show
current trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
MVFR conditions will occur southeast of KLTS-KCSM-KEND before
17 UTC, then improve to VFR.

Additional MVFR conditions will occur after 06 UTC Wednesday
mainly southeast of KCSM-KPNC. There is an outside chance of IFR
conditions southeast of this line during this time frame, but did
not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

Added VCTS at KWWR along with gusty north/northeast surface winds
after 08 UTC Wednesday due to moderate confidence of occurrence.

Otherwise, chances of TSRA/SHRA remain too low to mention.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers, perhaps thunderstorms, may occur today across
south-central and southeast Oklahoma, as moisture and lift move
into that area--associated with a tropical disturbance over
Texas. This will also hold down temperatures a few degrees in
that area.

Models continue to advertise thunderstorm complexes over the High
Plains tonight, most likely affecting northwest Oklahoma early
Wednesday morning. Low-level convergence along any outflow
boundaries emanating from these storms, along with plenty of
moisture, will result in a continued "good" chance of
showers/storms through the day and into tonight.

Similar conditions, consisting of shortwave troughs aloft, plenty
of low-level moisture, upslope low-level flow will result in
chances of storms complexes again each night this weekend and into
early next week.

All the rain, clouds, and low-level moisture will help keep
afternoon temperatures down, except for southwest Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of Texas, where rain chances will generally be
lowest through the period.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  71  87  70 /  10  10  50  60
Hobart OK         92  71  90  70 /  10  10  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  89  72  92  73 /  10   0  20  30
Gage OK           94  68  85  64 /  10  40  50  10
Ponca City OK     89  72  86  67 /  10  20  50  30
Durant OK         83  71  85  72 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/10



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