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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231939
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
239 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

A couple rounds of rain and storms have already made their way
across the area today. A shortwave is expected to round the base of
larger scale trough to our west later today. As this occurs expect
to see additional shower and thunderstorm activity to develop to our
west across the panhandles south across west Texas. This activity,
some of which may be severe, will move east toward western parts of
the area this evening. Although some marginally severe storms could
impact western Oklahoma and western north Texas, still appears that
the potential for heavy rainfall will be the main impact. Much of
this will be welcome rainfall. Some isolated flooding remains
possible, but widespread flooding currently does not look likely as
drought conditions persist across much of the western half of
Oklahoma and north Texas, however will continue to monitor.

This batch of rain will move east across Oklahoma and north Texas
during the morning hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, back to the west,
another shortwave will be dropping out of the central Rockies, as a
surface front drops south through the panhandles. This will be a
focus for another round of showers/storms that will move into
western Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. At the same time a southern
shortwave will translate northeast out of south Texas toward the
Arklatex region. A few strong to severe storms may accompany these
features Tuesday afternoon and evening, but will be highly dependent
on where breaks in the precip and perhaps cloud cover can occur
allowing more substantial instability to develop. These
stronger/severe storms would mainly impact much of central and
southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

The western activity Tuesday afternoon will translate eastward
through the area Tuesday night with another round of potentially
heavy rainfall. Associated surface front should sweep southeast
bringing an end to perhaps the heavier rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Latest model runs are showing the closed upper low over Kansas
becoming less progressive and moving slowly south/southeast during
the day Wednesday, bringing some light wrap-around precip to parts
of the area. This could linger into Thursday morning before the low
shifts far enough to end precip chances. Movement of this low will
be important as to when the precip finally comes to an end.

As the low moves to the east, ridging builds in from the west
bringing in drier weather and a return to warmer/hot temperatures.
Parts of southwest Oklahoma and north Texas may see temps in excess
of 100 degrees by the weekend. Models differ on additional precip
chances as we go through the weekend into early next week, but most
areas look to remain dry during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

MVFR ceilings at most sites this morning will gradually
lower to IFR conditions during the late morning and afternoon.
Widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
by mid to late morning in southwest and central Oklahoma. This
precipitation should move northeast perhaps impacting SWO/PNC.
More numerous showers and thunderstorms should impact all
terminal from mid eveing through the overnight hours. Mainly
IFR conditions will prevail during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  69  52  65 /  90  90  50  10
Hobart OK         59  71  50  68 /  90  70  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  62  76  53  72 /  90  80  40  20
Gage OK           53  64  46  64 / 100  60  20  10
Ponca City OK     56  67  53  65 /  90 100  60  20
Durant OK         63  74  59  72 /  70  90  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06