925
FXUS63 KPAH 111138
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
638 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through the weekend with a warming
  trend to near the 80 degree mark by Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday into Tuesday.
  Potential for severe weather and/or flooding issues is
  limited.

- After a midweek break, another chance of showers and storms
  is in the forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Mainly clear and dry conditions are anticipated through much of
the weekend. The main exception is a temporary increase in mid
level clouds early today across the Wabash River Valley and
Evansville Tri-State in association with the passage of a
shortwave trough across the Ohio Valley. As weak ridging builds
east from the Plains, temperatures should warm through the 70s
today, then pop above the 80 degree mark on Sunday.

A wet pattern still appears likely next week as an upper low
and troughing currently over the southwestern U.S. approach
early in the new week. Expect a couple periods of showers and
isolated storms through the week. The first will impact the
region Monday into Tuesday, while the second arrives later in
the week with the approach of an upper level trough within a
quasi-zonal split flow pattern.

The synoptic setup still doesn`t appear particularly favorable
for severe weather with generally marginal shear and instability
anticipated. Flooding also appears to be a lower probability
with rainfall totals generally forecast in the one half to 1.5
inch range for the first half of the week. However, a localized
water issue certainly can`t be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A passing cold front will shift winds around to the northwest
this morning. Expect sustained winds around 10 knots with gusts
of 15 to 18 knots today, diminishing to near calm tonight. VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...RJP
AVIATION...RST/RJP