Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
639 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Early this afternoon, high pressure was across the Great Lakes down
to the Ohio Valley, with surface low pressure over southeast OK. The
upper level trof axis was a tad farther west across the central and
southern Plains. A broad axis of showers and some thunderstorms was
across western MO down into the west 1/2 of AR. The short range
models bring an initial axis of light showers into our area (mainly
SEMO) , but weakening with time. Better PoPs for showers and
possibly isolated thunder will be later tonight into early Thursday
morning as the overall system deepens across the Ozarks tonight and
moves east.

As the system winds up and becomes more vertically stacked with time,
we should see a diminishing trend to the showers Thursday morning.
However, clouds and some light drizzle may persist. New showers and
even some thunderstorms will redevelop Thursday afternoon in close
proximity to the low center, forecast to be near the MO Bootheel 00z
Friday. Numerous showers will continue across the area Thursday
night and even Friday as the upper low heads across TN. Given the
broad cyclonic flow about the low and widespread moisture associated
with the system, lingering showers, or light rains and drizzle may
persist into Friday night.

Overall, the models continue to handle this system fairly well, with
good agreement from one suite to the next. Stayed close to the NBM
for temperatures. We may "warm sector" a bit Thursday, so kept our
upper 50s to mid 60s highs as trajectories support this air making
into our area. It will be cooler Friday within the grunge and
northerly flow on the back side of the surface low. Temperatures
will likely stay in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

The period starts out with an upper level low over the southeast US
with weak or flat ridging over the west-central US. At the surface,
a low will be over central-eastern Kentucky. This will keep showers
over the eastern portions of the area on Saturday.

Slight upper level ridging takes place on Sunday with an abnormally
deep trough over the Dakotas or southern Canada. Surface high
pressure will be moving into the area, but will be centered over the
high Plain keeping us dry.

Monday sees a deepening and broadening of the upper level trough
over the Great Lakes/Minnesota area. High pressure at the surface
will continue to spread east over the region.

Bigger differences show up in the models by Tuesday with the upper
levels. A rather elongated and broad trough will be over the Great
Lakes, but the location and intensity of the western extent of the
positively tilted trough is in question. The European and GFS
ensembles favor a more east/west trough while the Canadian ensembles
favor and more northeast/southwest trough over the eastern US with a
stronger ridge over the northern Rockies.

Larger differences on Wednesday with solutions ranging from a
moderate to deep positive trough over the Great Lakes to a weaker
more elongated east/west trough over the northeast US. Almost all
show cold air moving down from Canada after the midweek system.

As for precipitation, the clusters have a light rain event Monday
night with most favoring a larger widespread rain event over the
central/southern Plains Tuesday Night into Wednesday. At this time,
the heavier rain appears to be south and/or west of us.


Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

A band of showers will move northeast across the TAF sites late
this evening through early Thursday morning. Visibilities could
drop to MVFR levels at times within the band, but ceilings will
remain VFR. Immediately behind the band, IFR or lower ceilings
with MVFR or lower visibilities in showers or drizzle will
develop. A weak frontal boundary will lead to improving conditions
at KCGI and KPAH in the afternoon, but farther north the low
conditions are likely to persist through the period. A chance of
more substantial SHRA and even TSRA will accompany that frontal
boundary in the afternoon. Persistent east winds will increase
late tonight, and if they do not gust, LLWS will be a concern.
Winds will veer to southeast through the day, and will become
southerly behind the front across the south in the afternoon.




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