Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
524 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 522 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Updated short term portion to cancel winter weather advisory. No
addiional snow acummulations expcted.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Light snows exiting the sw IN/nrn Pennyrile of west KY as this
message is typed. Will keep advisory going through 12z to allow
for any exiting light precip. Ky Transportation sensors through
much of the advisory area indicate pavement temps still several
degrees above freezing, but bridges and overpasses may develop
slick spots/pockets of black ice as temps hover right around the
freezing mark around sunrise.

Unseasonably chilly high pressure system will build east into the
MS River Valley behind the next of what has been a chain of
Noreasters out over the East Coast. Blustery northwest winds today
will gust over 20 mph in many locations. Snow covered locations
may struggle to get out of the 30s this afternoon...esp with
clouds likely to persist.

It will be a cold night with freezing temps most locations by Thu
morning, so those with tender flowering vegetation may take
measures to try and protect from the cold. Things will moderate a
bit by Thu afternoon as the sfc high moves over and just east of
the region. However, an upper level jet streak embedded within
broad nw flow could bring some more clouds and possible light
rain to portions of the region by later in the day Friday. CLouds
and easterly wind will probably hold day time temps below normal
once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Better than average confidence starts off the long term with good
model agreement through Sunday. However, confidence drops off early
next week with greater model variability--though improved over the
last 24 hours.

An unsettled pattern will prevail from late this week into the
middle of next week with multiple chances for showers. The period
will start with an upper level ridge centered over the Plains
flanked by troughs in the east and west. The ridge will translate
eastward through the end of the period, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft during the first half of next week.

The first chance for showers arrives late Friday, Friday night, and
Saturday as energy tops the Plains ridge and streams eastward into
the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure over western Kansas
late Friday is forecast to weaken as it moves east into the forecast
area by Saturday evening. The presence of elevated instability
supports a slight chance of thunder over southeast Missouri late
Friday night and into portions of southern Illinois and far western
Kentucky Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts during this period are
forecast to average around one half inch. Higher totals of up to an
inch are possible in closer proximity to I-64, with amounts less
than one quarter inch in much of southeast Missouri. This round of
activity should come to an end Saturday night as the cold front
slips south of the region.

Much of Sunday should be dry with the front stalled out south of the
region. Another low pressure system is forecast to develop over the
Central Plains and lift the front north across the area early in the
week. This will result in our next chance of showers during the
early to middle part of next week. The evolution of this system will
likely be gradual with the slow retreat of the upper level ridge
over the Southeast. As a result, better rain chances will exist over
western portions of the area, with lower rain chances in the east.
At this time, models suggest the heaviest rain should remain just
west of the immediate forecast area.

With developing southwest flow, temperatures should average near or
just above seasonal norms through much of the period. Saturday night
and Sunday are the main exceptions, with below normal temperatures
forecast both periods in the wake of the cold frontal passage.


Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

MVFR/IFR cigs will improve to VFR between 07z- 11z. At KCGI/KPAH,
VFR conditions expected overnight, with mainly scattered mid/high
clouds after 14z. At all sites, winds overnight will be from the
northwest at 4-9 kts, increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20
kts after 13z, then becoming light to calm after 00z.




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