Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170130 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 930 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Other than isolated showers or thunderstorms, dry weather and warming temperatures are expected through Monday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... New Updates: Isolated patchy fog added just before sunrise. With low winds and sufficent moisture areas will be prime for fog. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently occurring along an upper level shortwave across eastern Ohio/panhandle of West Virgina. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outlined most of our Ohio counties as having a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, however the best instability is to our west. Damaging winds and severe hail have been reported in that region throughout the afternoon. These isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening/early morning hours as the shortwave passes. Isolated thunderstorms on Sunday will be focused along the ridges, forming from the remnants of the shortwave. However, the main threat for tomorrow (and especially into Monday) will be the heat. Highs are still expected to be well over seasonal climatology;heat indices rising into the mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The weather should remain dry Sunday night, but an approaching cold front should slip far enough south on Monday to bring slight chance pops north of Interstate 80 and chance pops north of Interstate 70 Monday night. Tuesday is when the front should finally get into the forecast area, bringing showers to all locations north of the Mason Dixon line. Monday is expected to be the warmest day so far this year, with highs above 90 in most locations. Heat indices could approach the heat advisory threshold of 100 degrees in some areas Monday afternoon, and this potential was included in the HWO. Lows will only drop to the 70 degree mark each night, and highs will fall back into the 80s on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front will not move much during the week, although the chances for rain will diminish through the week. Did add likely pops south of the Mason-Dixon line on Wednesday considering there is good agreement for rain placement between the GFS and ECMWF. Despite the front in the area, temperatures will remain slightly above normal in the 80s during the day and the 60s at night. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Apart from lingering storms that are expected to decay with loss of heating, localized fog may be possible at a few terminals, primarily where it has rained and where wind subsides in the river valleys. Remaining cloud debris may help offset radiational cooling sufficiently to prevent fog formation, however. Storms will be possible again on Sun, although likely will be confined to the ridges, where a sfc trough will be found. Therefore, no mention of convection will be made at any terminal for Sun afternoon. Afternoon cu can be expected owing to the remaining moist airmass, but conditions should remain VFR. OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected until storm chances escalate again Monday night.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ Update...Kramar

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