Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270752 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 352 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A few isolated showers continue this morning as a slow moving cold front crosses the region. Dry and seasonable conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week. Rain chances return for the weekend and early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Lingering showers are possible this morning with the crossing cold front, but most remain dry. - Cooler, drier air arrives tonight as skies begin to slowly clear. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lingering, isolated showers along the cold frontal boundary have crossed into eastern Ohio... rapidly diminishing as they slowly shift east. Brief light rain will be possible as these cross eastern Ohio and northwest PA, but most of us will remain dry. As the parent system lifts north, the cold front will largely stall across western PA today, keeping isolated showers in the forecast -- though mainly across the higher terrain. High temperatures for the day will largely depend on the location and progression of the front. Areas east of Pittsburgh will maintain southerly flow the longest into the afternoon before frontal passage, likely boosting temperatures into the lower 60s. Elsewhere, clouds and weak cold advection behind the front and surface trough will keep highs in the 50s. Better cold advection finally arrives tonight as temperatures dip below freezing for the high terrain and northern/western half of the forecast area. Clouds will begin to gradually clear overnight as drier/cooler air infiltrates the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues Thursday and Friday. - Near-seasonable temperatures are expected. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Building high pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies. Deep southern stream troughing will aid development of a coastal low across the Carolinas along the lingering frontal boundary, eventually lifting northwards up the coast. However, moisture associated with that system should stay well to our east. The main impact for our area will be to maintain northwesterly flow across the area, keeping daily temperatures near-average.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - A crossing shortwave returns rain chances early this weekend. - Additional rain chances are expected with low pressure early next week. - Above-average temperatures are expected. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The aforementioned trough will shift east into the weekend as a flattening ridge takes its place across the eastern US. Ensemble probabilities remain high for rainfall to return on Saturday as a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes. Uncertainty increases for Easter Sunday, though drier conditions look more favorable than not at the moment. Rain chances then increase again early next week as low pressure lifts out of the central US and into the Great Lakes region. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures through the long term are high.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast period will begin with VFR conditions at most ports as a large dry slot crosses the region. The exception will be at FKL and DUJ they should remain in lower MVFR cigs. LLWS will also be present during the early forecast period. As the night progresses cigs should drop back to MVFR levels and stay there through at least the morning hours. Improvement is anticipated at most ports during the afternoon as cigs should lift back to VFR levels. The exceptions will be at the eastern ports of DUJ and LBE where trapped low-level moisture will keep the cigs in the MVFR category. An increase in surface winds is possible during the afternoon, with gusts to 20kts. Wind will decrease as sunset approaches and conditions should remain the same into the overnight hours. .Outlook... VFR then returns with high confidence for Thursday and Friday under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions may come Saturday with a passing wave. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley NEAR TERM...Rackley SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley AVIATION...22

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