Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190303 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1103 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation returns tonight through Thursday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return this weekend with seasonable warmth next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A late eve update was issued to adjust POPs to categorical numbers based on the latest radar and high res trends. Showers will spread across the Upper Ohio Region late this evening as low pressure crosses the forecast area. Precipitation will fall as rain at onset but changeover to snow overnight as cold air advection ramps up on the backside of the low.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Precipitation will continue Thursday largely as snow but locations along southern fringes of the forecast area may see a rain/snow mix if the boundary layer warms sufficiently. Expect Thursday to be very similar to observed weather this past Tuesday with gusty winds between 20-30mph and snow...but no significant accumulation is expected given warmer subsurface temperatures and sun angle. Friday and Saturday will be cool days of improvement as surface high pressure builds under cold northwest flow. Expect highs for those days 10 to 15 degrees under the averages respectively. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Split flow is projected over the CONUS next week with nrn stream ridging, and a srn stream low forecast to support dry conditions with a warming trend for the Upper Ohio. The next chance for precipitation looks to be with the advance of a mid week nrn stream trough, which model-world may be phasing too quickly with the exiting srn low. Shortwave ridging between srn stream lows would retard a moisture tap off the Gulf, so only a slight rain chance was included for the immediate area. The bottom line is that indications of a dry period with seasonable warmth are good, and may be interrupted only late in the period. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR and eventual IFR conditions will return as the night and rain area progresses. Cold advection in the wake of the supporting low will change rain to snow on Thursday with restrictions continuing. Also of concern is sfc wind gusts as mixing deepens under cooling mid levels. Expect gusts to 25 kts on NNw wind. OUTLOOK... Expect a stretch of VFR conditions after Friday morning and into the weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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