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185
FXUS61 KPHI 081052
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
652 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The dominant feature through this week will be surface high
pressure, leaving tranquil weather and a gradual warming trend
through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No significant changes with this update. It`s expected to be a
pleasant day across the northern Middle Atlantic region as high
pressure from the Midwest begins to ridge across the area. An
upper H5 trough to the N/NW will remain in place as it weakens
thru Monday. Mostly sunny skies are expected today. Temperatures
will rise only into the mid/upper 60s (N/W) and low 70s
elsewhere. These readings will be about 10 degrees below normal
for early September. The air will be notably less humid than the
past few. Winds will increase this morning from the
West/Northwest at 10 to 15 mph with some gusts around 20 mph at
times.

Tonight, more fair weather and cool temperatures. Readings will
drop into the low/mid 40s for the southern Poconos, Lehigh
Valley and north NJ. Readings elsewhere will bottom out in the
upper 40s to low 50s. West winds settling to 5 mph or less.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The only potential blip in the continued period of tranquil
weather will come late Monday into Monday evening as a trailing
mid and upper level trough crosses through the region. though
the best synoptic scale lift will be north of our region, even
on the fringes we may have enough lift to support isolated
showers generally along and north of the I-80 corridor. However,
with still dry air in place, this is unlikely to amount to much
more than sprinkles, if that.

In the wake of that trough on Monday, we`ll see the start of the
warming trend on Tuesday as mid and upper level ridging
gradually starts to build towards the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Continued tranquil conditions with the continued warming trend
are expected through the remainder of the week. As winds become
more southerly starting late Wednesday, expecting modest
moisture advection, helping dew points get back close to 60.
This could lead to some morning fog late in the week (Thursday
or Friday).

For the weekend, we`re still watching both a potential low
developing off the southeastern U.S. coast and the evolution of
the low in the western Gulf drifting northward through that
time. However, at this point guidance is depicting both of these
features staying too far away from our region to result in any
rain through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

.Today... VFR. Mainly clear skies all day. West to Northwest winds 5
to 10 knots early then increasing to 10 to 12 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots into the evening. High confid.

.Tonight...  VFR. Clear skies expected. Light West winds. High
confid.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR with no significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
A small change to the SCA flag for Delaware Bay with a new
expiration time of 9AM. Gusts around 25/28kts lately seem slower
to diminish than earlier thought. The winds will remain gusty
into mid-morn, then settle as high pressure arrives. Fair
weather today and tonight.

Outlook...

Winds and seas will stay below SCA criteria through Thursday.

Rip Currents...

Today...The offshore storm will finally be well removed from its
influence on our coastal waters by Sunday. Additionally, offshore
winds and lessening seas will result in somewhat lower breaking wave
in the surf zone and a lower risk for rip currents than experienced
previous days. Therefore, will go with a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey Shore
and the Delaware Beaches.

Monday...Tranquil seas and southwest 10-15 mph winds will result in
a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both
the New Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches on Monday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Johnson
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson/OHara
MARINE...Johnson/OHara/Staarmann