Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231924 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 324 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide to the south and east of the area on Sunday. A low pressure system will track to the north of the area dropping a cold front through the region Sunday night into Monday. Another low develops along this boundary and crosses to the south of the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then builds into the region on Tuesday and then remains in control of the weather through the remainder of the week. Another system may affect the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure stretching from the Ohio Valley southeast to the coastal section of the Carolinas will move southeast overnight. As the gradient between this system and strong low pressure over the Canadian maritimes continues to relax, wind gusts will diminish, leaving sustained winds in the 8 to 12 mph range. With dewpoint depression values between 10 to 15 degrees, very dry air and light winds will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions, with expected lows in the low to mid 20s north and upper 20s to low 30s south, which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As high pressure slips off the Carolina coast, the combination of a developing southwesterly flow at the surface and zonal flow aloft, will bring warmer temperatures to the region. Expect highs in the low 50s in the north, and low 60s in the south, which is 5 degrees or so above normal for this time of year. Westerly winds in the 5 to 10 mph range will become southwesterly as the day wears on. Skies will be mostly sunny in the morning, with increasing cloudiness during the afternoon ahead of the next system heading this way. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sunday night through Monday...A cold front will drop through our area Sunday night into Monday morning. Not a lot of moisture available with the frontal passage but some showers will be possible as the front makes its way into the area. An area of low pressure develops along this frontal boundary and will travel along it as the front pushes to the south and east. The low remains centered to the south of the region as it makes its way towards the coast. This second low has more moisture associated with it and we should see some showers move across our southern areas through Monday and Monday night. While the precipitation will end from northwest to southeast, colder and drier air will filter into the region. If the precip doesn`t cut off before the colder air arrives, then we may see some mixing with snow before the precip fully ends. But with the drier air moving in fairly quickly (which is what the guidance continues to show) the precipitation will largely be confined to the southern portions of the forecast area as we move through Monday afternoon and into Monday night. Tuesday through Friday...Any lingering precipitation over Delmarva should end early on Tuesday as dry air moves into the area. High pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday. The high settles just to the northeast of our area and remains there through the week. We should have dry conditions through the week and generally light winds, which should result in good radiational cooling at night. High temperatures will start off on the cool side (in the 40s) but as we go through the week, they will moderate quite a bit and be pretty warm (into the 50s/60s) by the time we reach the weekend. Saturday...The next low pressure system is slated to move through the region over the weekend. With warm temperatures expected when the precipitation arrives, anticipate that we will have an all rain event. Precipitation in advance of the main system will start to arrive early Saturday and then gradually spread across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. TONIGHT...VFR under a clear sky. While a few west to northwest wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots are possible early, winds are expected to subside to 10 knots or less overnight. SUNDAY...VFR with west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest during the afternoon. Outlook... Sunday night...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Increasing cloudiness overnight with showers possible towards daybreak. West to southwest winds around 10 knots or less. Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected with MVFR possible in showers. Northerly winds around 10 knots. Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. North to northeast winds around 10 knots on Tuesday, becoming east to southeast around 10 knots or less on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Strong west to northwesterly winds from 25-30 knots through the remainder of the afternoon, though these will slowly subside into the overnight hours. Gusts of up to 35 knots will be possible through 22Z, dropping to 25-30 knots by 00Z. However, a few localized higher gusts will be possible, especially across the northern zones through the overnight. Winds have relaxed below Gale criteria from Great Egg Inlet southward, thus allowed the Gale Warning to expire early at 20Z for these areas. Will keep the Gale Warning up until expiration at 22Z for areas to the north. A SCA has been issued in place of the Gale Warning for the southern zones , and will continue through 09Z Sunday morning. Winds gusts between 20 and 25 knots will be possible. Will likely add the northern zones to this SCA after the Gale expires. Seas of 3 to 5 feet. Sunday and Sunday night...winds turning southerly while dropping below SCA criteria at 10-15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. .Outlook... Monday and Monday night...sub SCA conditions with westerly winds turning north to northeasterly as a cold front drops southward. Waves near 1 to 3 feet during the day, but building to 2 to 4 feet through the overnight Monday. Tuesday and Tuesday night...winds approaching SCA criteria out of the north at 20 to 25 knots, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots, especially for the southern zones. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Wednesday through Thursday...winds remain below SCA criteria and northeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots. Seas, however, remain on the high side, possibly at SCA levels, from 3 to 5 feet for the southern zones Wednesday. Waves should drop to 2 to 4 feet by Thursday morning though. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431- 452>455. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450-451. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Miketta Short Term...Miketta Long Term...Meola Aviation...Meola/Miketta Marine...Davis

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