Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 241328 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 928 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure extended from Ontario and Quebec down into the eastern states early this morning. The high will build slowly to the south and east over the weekend, as low pressure passes across the southeastern states and off the Carolina coast. The high is expected to remain over the eastern states during the early and middle parts of the new week as the strong low meanders over the western North Atlantic. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to arrive on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid-morning update: Current forecast seems on track for a mostly sunny and pleasant day across the forecast area. Only minor adjustments were made for temperature and sky cover. Morning VIS stlt imagery compared to 24 hrs ago shows considerable melting of snow cover across upper Delmarva, much of south NJ and the Phila metro area. Snow cover remains over much of southeast PA and parts of northern and central NJ where up to a foot or more of snow fell on Wed. Melting will continue today with the strong late March sun and max afternoon temps similar to yesterday, or perhaps a couple of degrees warmer. Previous discussion: High pressure will remain well north of the area today. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure aloft will be approaching the area. This will result in a dry day, but some extra cloud cover later today. It will remain below normal with regards to temperatures, but not too bad a day. Highs will generally top out in the mid/upper 40s in most areas, with a few low 50s possible. Winds will be from the north or northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... Fair weather will continue tonight. Skies will be mostly clear overnight. Lows will range mostly in the mid/upper 20s with teens across the southern Poconos and near freezing across metro Philadelphia. Winds will be light from the north or northeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mid level low off Cape Cod on Sunday is forecast to pull a trough over our region from north to south at that time. We have indicated a low or slight chance of showers on Sunday. Any showers are expected to be mainly in the form of rain. However, light snow showers are possible in the morning, especially in parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. A mid level ridge is forecast to build overhead from the west during the period from Sunday night through Monday night. The axis of the ridge should be overhead late on Tuesday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is expected to push into our region from the north and northeast. Strong low pressure over the western North Atlantic should remain well to our east. As a result, we are anticipating dry weather from Sunday night through Tuesday night. Temperatures are forecast to be below normal until Tuesday night when they should recover to near normal levels. The mid level ridge is expected to slide to our east during the second half of the work week. The surface high is forecast to lose its influence over our weather as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front should arrive on Friday. We will indicate a gradually increasing chance of showers as the front nears. Also, temperatures will likely rise a bit above normal late in the week in advance of the frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR conditions expected today with high pressure nearby. There will be some CI/CS and some CU/SC from time to time this afternoon. Winds will remain mostly NW with speeds 8 to 12 knots. Tonight...VFR continues with light N winds. OUTLOOK... Sunday...Mainly VFR with a low or slight chance of snow and rain showers. Sunday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Another fair weather day expected on the waters. A continuation of mostly north winds as high pressure remain north/west of the area and the deep low remain well north/east. Wind speeds and seas will remain short of SCA conditions both today and tonight. Seas on the ocean will be mostly 3 to 4 ft and around 2 ft across Delaware Bay. OUTLOOK... Sunday and Sunday night...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 knots. Waves on our ocean waters building to 5 to 9 feet. Monday and Monday evening...Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Waves on our ocean waters building to 4 to 8 feet. Late Monday night through Tuesday night...Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Waves on our ocean waters 5 to 8 feet. Wednesday...Northeast to southeast wind around 10 knots. Waves on our ocean waters 5 to 8 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...AMC/O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Iovino/O`Hara Marine...Iovino/O`Hara is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.