Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 152056
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
156 PM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.

A cold front is moving west to east across the region this
afternoon. A line of rain and snow defines the front. As the front
continues to move east, an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow with
some areas of blowing and drifting snow remain possible. Will cancel
the advisory for the central mountains as most of the snow has
exited the region, while extending the advisory across the eastern
highlands where some models are showing snow hanging on into the
early evening hours.

Snow showers remain likely for the remainder of the weekend with a
weak area of low pressure around. Amounts look rather light,
generally an inch possible in any 6 hour period. So impacts look
fairly light at this point and am anticipating no warnings or
advisories.

Valle

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday.
A broad trough over the western CONUS will keep the potential of
some mountain snow showers Sunday night into Monday. The final
trough axis swings through during the day Monday, perhaps spreading
snow into the Snake Plain, but with moisture eroding quickly impacts
of this activity should be limited.

A break in precipitation chances is then expected as we transition
from one system to the next arriving Wednesday. Models are not
nearly in as much agreement as they were during previous runs with
how to evolve the Weds/Thurs system. The 00z GFS digs the next upper
low over us and drops it to our south, while the 00z EC cuts it off
well to our southwest, splitting the moisture around eastern Idaho.
With this in mind, will stick with the blend of models which remains
close to the middle of these solutions, in line with ensemble means.

After a cold start to the next week, temperatures will slowly
moderate through the latter half of the forecast.
TAX/TW

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front is moving through the area. It has gone
through KSUN and mostly through KBYI. Expect VFR conditions to
return quickly for these stations. The front is now moving through
KPIH and will soon move through KIDA. There is some lightning
associated with this front, especially for KPIH and KIDA. THe front
will reach KDIJ by 23z. Expect IFR conditions and breezy to moderate
winds as this front moves through. Models show a return to VFR
conditions by late this afternoon for KPIH and little later into
early evening for KIDA and KDIJ. The NAM12 is suggesting light
snowshowers and MVFR conditions early in the morning while the
GFS model is showing early tomorrow afternoon. TW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

An avalanche occurred near Hailey on Thursday. Snow is blocking the
Big Wood River at Hailey and water is being diverted towards some
homes. A flood warning remains in place until further notice.

Valle

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for IDZ060-
062>066-071>075.

&&

$$



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