063
FXUS65 KPIH 160804
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Main concern in the short term involves wind. A cold front arrives
on Friday. We`ll start to see winds increase today with gusts likely
(about 70% chance) to exceed lake wind advisory levels (20 mph
sustained) for the American Falls Reservoir. However, the guidance
does show that we may not see those peak winds until late afternoon
(after 20z). Winds are even stronger on Friday with a 75% chance of
reaching high wind gusts, especially across the upper Snake Plain.
Closer to Pocatello, those numbers fall to around 60% chance. In
terms of wind advisory gusts, seeing a 60% chances extending back to
Shoshone and around Burley eastward. Current set of products look
reasonable with lake wind advisory in effect for today and high wind
watch in effect for upper and lower Snake Plain for Friday.

There doesn`t seem to be much precipitation with this system as the
front is working with a good deal of dry air. Temperatures today
expected to be in the mid and upper 70s across the Snake Plain and
Magic Valley. Temps fall to more seasonable levels on Friday,
generally around 70 across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.

13

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

Saturday looks reasonably dry across the region as we are in between
systems. Winds look much lighter as well although there could still
be some gusts of 40 to 45 mph out across the Arco Desert. Sunday
looks windy once again as another front arrives. Right now there is
a 50% chance that we will at least meet wind advisory levels (gusts
to 45 mph) in the lower and upper Snake Plain. Precipitation chances
still aren`t overly impressive as we`re still dealing with a good
deal of dry air. That starts to change on Monday somewhat as the
upper low associated with the front passes through east Idaho.
Chances for precipitation are highest across the eastern highlands
where a 30 to 40 percent chance of precipitation exists. QPF amounts
still look to be 0.10 inches or less.

Tuesday looks mainly dry but about 60-70% of models show a closed
upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest for mid to late week.
Main differences seem to involve how deep the low is which will
determine the track of that system along with how much precipitation
we may see.

Temperatures in the low term start seasonable, but turn at least
slightly below normal as we see a parade of systems moving through
the region.

13

&&

.AVIATION...TAFs are mainly wind dependent with gusts to around 25
kts likely at Snake Plain sites. Winds expected to switch to
upvalley for a couple hours early this afternoon at KSUN but then
becoming more west-southwesterly from mid to late afternoon with
some gusts of 20-25kts possible. Ceilings should remain vfr with
mainly mid to high level clouds drifting through.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in
Pocatello. The flood warning for the Blackfoot river near Shelley
was cancelled as flows have decreased due to cooler temperatures and
a diminishing snowpack. A flood advisory continues along the
Portneuf river at Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the
Portneuf river due to the snowpack diminishing. Water levels for
other rivers, including the Big Wood, Big Lost, Henrys Fork, Teton,
and Snake, are slowly climbing due to snowmelt, but all rivers look
to remain below action stage with current forecasts. Wyatt/13

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
IDZ052>054.

&&

$$