Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 161946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
146 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. Hot, dry, and breezy
conditions will continue through the period. A flattened upper ridge
is in place over the western US. A weak shortwave appears on WV
imagery over WA/OR progressing northeastward. Models lift the
shortwave into the Panhandle area late this afternoon/early evening.
Thus, we may see some relatively strong wind gusts prior to sunset.
The southwesterly mid-level flow over Idaho will gradually become
westerly early tomorrow. High pressure over the Desert Southwest
will continue to drive temperatures higher through Friday. Any
moisture drawn up around the high will remain to the south, so very
little thunder chances through the end of the work week. Hinsberger

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday. Models show a low
pressure trough dropping SE through WRN Canada Saturday with
widespread breezy to windy conditions across most of SE Idaho in
advance of the system with a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms across the ERN mountains near the Wyoming border where
negative LI`s reside. The trough brushes the Island Park region
Sunday resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms in those
areas bordering the Montana and Wyoming divide and breezy to windy
conditions in the Burley-Malta corridor. A cooler airmass will
spill over the divide Sunday afternoon and continue through the
night as the trough passes off the to south and east of the region.
Dry and mild conditions prevail Monday as the ridge begins to
rebound across the region. By Tuesday, the models begin to diverge
with the GFS painting the ridge axis over Idaho whereas the ECMWF
has it extending NW through ERN Oregon. The GFS is also keen on a
weak disturbance topping the ridge Tuesday afternoon/evening
resulting in a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of
a line from Stanley to Challis while the ECMWF is largely dry due to
a slower progression of the disturbance ejecting inland. Both models
favor isolated to scattered thunderstorm development Wednesday
primarily across the CNTRL and NE mountains as the ridge begins to
break down and shift east into the Wyoming border region. This will
also open the door for increasing winds across the region along with
slightly cooler temperatures. Huston

.AVIATION...Anticipating a little westerly wind this afternoon and
evening as the ridge continues to slowly build across the region,
otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Huston

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure in the Desert Southwest is setting the
stage for hot and dry conditions here in southeast Idaho. A weak mid-
level impulse will lift across the Panhandle area this evening, and
there may be a period of brief and localized critical fire weather
conditions until around sunset. Fuel moistures are declining about 2
weeks ahead of normal, with 5 of our 8 fire weather zones already in
critical status. Expect poor humidity recovery over the next couple
of nights. Hinsberger


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