925
FXUS65 KPIH 230931
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
331 AM MDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday
Early morning satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds
streaking across the area on the northern edge of an area of high
pressure building over eastern Idaho. Most of the area will be dry
today but a few light rain/snow showers will be possible across
the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands
with some upslope enhancement. Any precip that does fall will be
very light and any snowfall accumulations will be limited to an
inch or less. High pressure ridge will strengthen and expand its
influence over the region throughout the day and especially into
the day tomorrow, and beyond. Temperatures today should warm well
into the 50s across the lower Snake Plain and into the Magic
Valley with 40s expected elsewhere. The warming trend really ramps
up as we get into Monday with H5 heights continuing to rise and
daytime highs will climb into the 60s across much of our lower
terrain zones with even upper 40s to 50s likely into the high
country. Spring-like weather will continue for the first part of
the extended period, more on that below.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.
Under the increasing influence of high pressure overhead early
next week as a H5 ridge axis shifts over the NRN Rockies,
temperatures will continue on a strong warming trend through
Wednesday as dry conditions persist. This strong ridge of high
pressure with 576-578 dm 500 mb heights shifting into East Idaho
will support the warmest temperatures we have seen so far this
year as lower elevations climb into the mid-50s to mid-70s. This
level of warmth in late March will result in near record to record
warmth for this time of year with all of our climate sites
(Pocatello, Idaho Falls, Rexburg, Burley, Stanley, and Challis)
all seeing forecast highs on Wednesday near or exceeding daily
record values for March 26th.

Associated with these warmer temperatures, we will continue to
monitor potential increased snow melt impacts heading next week
with overnight lows peaking Thursday morning in the 30s to
upper-40s supporting more efficient snowmelt rates. Stay tuned for
further messaging on this next week.

Looking towards mid-to-late next week, ensemble cluster and
deterministic model guidance remain in agreement on this dominant
ridge feature overhead shifting east as a H5 trough begins moving
inland from the NE Pacific. Models however this far out still
differ plenty in terms of timing and depth of this trough feature
in terms of specifics with the National Blend of Models supporting
this more unsettled pattern with cooler temperatures and isolated
to scattered precipitation chances back in the forecast starting
Thursday and continuing into weekend. This is reflected well in
our latest forecast with an uptick in winds and precipitation
chances on Thursday helping to usher in more seasonable
temperatures for Friday and Saturday. MacKay


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions are expected to continue for
Sunday as a series of H5 shortwaves working over the Continental
Divide work to support isolated mountain rain/snow showers beginning
this afternoon. Best precipitation chances will remain confined to
KDIJ, north of KSUN, and east of KPIH and KIDA with MVFR CIGS/VIS
possible associated with any rain/snow on station. Winds will be
much lighter today in comparison to Saturday, peaking around 10-15
kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$