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105
FXUS62 KRAH 060612
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
212 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Storm Chantal will drift slowly north northwestward across
the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Its
remnant low pressure will then drift slowly north to northeastward
through northeastern SC Sunday and central NC Sunday night
into Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Saturday...

* Scattered showers and isolated storms still expected along and
  east of Hwy 1 through tonight.

Surface high pressure centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast this
afternoon will continue to extend SW through the NC Piedmont into
early this evening, although this ridge (and its comparatively lower
dewpoints as compared to the Coastal Plain) will be steadily
overcome and supplanted by the encroaching Tropical Storm Chantal,
located about 100 mi SE of CHS this afternoon and drifting slowly to
the N. The current bands of tropical convection now pushing westward
over our SE are feeding on moderate CAPE, but with poor deep layer
shear. The downturn in CAPE after nightfall should result in a
relative dip in coverage later this evening. Deeper moisture (as
seen on GOES layer WV) and higher PWs (~2.0-2.4") sitting over the
NC coastal areas will spread steadily inland through tonight,
although pockets of somewhat drier air aloft over our NW should
temporarily limit the westward extent of showers through tonight.
Skies should trend to partly (W) to mostly (E) cloudy overnight with
rising rain chances mainly along and E of Hwy 1, highest in the SE
(e.g., CTZ/GSB), and isolated to no pops in the NW. After highs
today in the mid 80s to lower 90s, lows tonight should be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM Saturday...

* Slight risk of excessive rainfall over much of central NC
  Sun/Sun night, with amounts of 1-4 inches possible.

* Marginal severe storm risk over our southeast areas Sun/Sun night
  for the threat of an isolated tornado or two.

TS Chantal is expected to make landfall over the central or northern
coast of SC early Sun morning before tracking northward then NE,
reaching the E Sandhills Sun evening as a depression, then moving
roughly along the I-95 corridor through E NC through Sun night. By
this time, both the strong/deep Atlantic moisture flux and the
surface wind field are likely to have weakened from their current
state. However, in this tropical environment, PW is still expected
to be well above normal, 2.2-2.5" across the CWA, with a deep LCL-0C
layer aoa 4 km, favoring warm rain processes and supporting the risk
of heavy rainfall. Many of the recent CAM runs show the heavier rain
areas spreading west of the center over the Piedmont Sun, and in
particular our far S and SW sections (including some flashy streams
like the Rocky River) could see multiple inches of rain through Sun
night. There is still too much uncertainty in coverage and amounts
for a flood watch at this time, however one may be needed tonight or
Sun morning if these CAM trends hold. Regarding the surface winds
and severe threat, while the surface wind field will have spread out
and decreased, a few stronger gusts remain possible, esp in and near
convective cells with substantial vertical growth as higher winds
aloft mix groundward. Models do show decent (25-35 kt) low level
southeasterly jetting to the E and NE of the storm`s center, nosing
into our Coastal Plain and E Sandhills counties Sun into Sun
evening, and this resultant brief curvature to the hodographs could
support a weak spinup or two in our SE, esp if we can achieve any
CAPE between tropical rainbands. Expect likely to categorical pops
CWA-wide, which is a notable westward push from earlier forecasts.
Given the more expansive cloud cover and precip, have nudged highs
down a bit to 80-85. Lows around 70 to the mid 70s, with pops
trending down and shifting into mainly NE sections as the remnant
low center tracks through the E CWA overnight.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Saturday...

* Remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal likely to have minimal impacts
  to the region by Monday.

* Afternoon/diurnal shower chances return Tuesday through Saturday.

* Hot and humid conditions expected each day, with the hottest day
  being Tuesday.

By Monday morning, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal should be
in the northeast portions of the CWA as a tropical depression.
Impacts from the storm are expected to be less on Monday than on
Sunday, however there is still a chance for pockets of locally heavy
rain. This is especially true in the northeast where convergence
with a coastal front is expected. The risk of severe weather and
tornadoes associated with the system on Monday still appears to be
limited. Otherwise, maximum temperatures on Monday should range from
the upper 80s in the northeast to the low 90s in the southwest.
Overnight, temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day of the period in wake of
the tropical cyclone. Temperatures are expected in the 90s across
the region, with heat indices reaching the upper 90s to the low-to-
mid 100s. Along with this, scattered showers/storms are possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will also stay warm
overnight, only dipping into the low to mid 70s, leaving little
relief from the heat. Wednesday through Saturday, we should stay in
a pattern of afternoon and evening showers and embedded
thunderstorms. The best chance for this will be on Thursday and
Friday as a cold front looks to approach the region. Temperatures
during this period should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows
overnight in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 212 AM Sunday...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal will bring widespread showers
with embedded storms across the terminals, earliest at FAY and
latest at GSO/INT. Ahead of the more widespread showers/storms, an
area of IFR-MVFR ceilings is favored into Sun morning with increased
low-level onshore flow. The heavier bands of showers and storms is
favored between the late morning and early evening hours, with the
highest confidence of TSRA at FAY, RWI, and RDU, where IFR or lower
restrictions are possible. These sites as well could briefly improve
to VFR outside of storms. The Triad terminals (GSO/INT) should see
MVFR to IFR rain, especially after 18z and through the end of the
TAF period. Waves of showers and some storms may continue to the end
of the TAF period. Regardless, IFR or lower ceilings are favored
between 03-06z with low-level saturation from the gradual departure
of Chantal. NE winds may gust at times into the teens to around 20
kt, especially at FAY.

Outlook: After Chantal exits early Mon, a humid airmass will favor
areas of morning stratus and fog and afternoon-evening
showers/storms through most of this coming week.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren/MWS