Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 162348
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep upper level low over the lower Great Lakes will bring cool
conditions to central NC through Tuesday. It will turn much warmer
and windy on Wednesday, as the high shifts to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

An unseasonably chilly night ahead. The strong mid level low will
continue to wobble NE over the E Great Lakes region tonight, as the
trough axis down through NC swings up to the NE. Passage of one
particularly strong vorticity max later today into this evening will
likely spawn a few sprinkles or light showers, mainly over southern
and eastern sections, but overall chances for measurable precip will
be rather low, as surface dewpoints continue to tumble. Once this
wave passes, skies are expected to clear out as deep drying,
subsidence, and a downslope flow all take over. Blustery winds from
the WNW and NW this afternoon will diminish toward evening, and with
the cold air advection, decreasing winds, clearing skies, temps are
expected to drop to readings well below normal. Statistical guidance
from recent model runs have come in cooler, and with the favorable
conditions for radiational cooling, we may see a risk for patchy
frost in the rural/outlying areas. Widespread frost is not expected,
given the falling dewpoints, but the risk is sufficiently high to
issue a frost advisory for 4am-9am tonight for a good portion of the
Piedmont. Areawide lows 33-40. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

The trough axis will finally shift to our ENE by Tue, allowing for
mid level subsidence and deep drying. Low level cyclonic flow will
persist from the NW with another round of frequent gusts to 20-25
mph, but as surface high pressure drifts over the NE Gulf and FL,
we`ll see a diminishing trend late in the day. The breezy conditions
and dry air will bring about a concern for possible adverse fire
behavior, and this potential will be assessed later today and
tonight. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and temps staying
below normal, with highs of 59-68 NE to SW before the cold air lifts
out to our NE. A streak of 850 mb moisture will spread in from the
NW Tue night, along a warm frontal zone advancing into NC from the
SW, and clear skies early will trend toward partly cloudy overnight.
Lows will be in the 40s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Cold air will retreat as a strong cutoff low over northern New
England lifts northeast, allowing a warm front to surge north of the
area Tuesday night. Temperatures will soar to the upper 70s to lower
80s under sunny skies on Wednesday, but this will be very short-
lived, as a trailing cutoff low migrates across the Ohio Valley,
pushing its associated cold front southeast through the area on
Wednesday night. The cool air will be delayed until late, so mins
Wednesday night will be mostly in the upper 50s, while highs
Thursday will stall in the low to mid 70s.

The second cutoff low will lift out late Thursday, but not before a
weak short wave dives southeast across the area to reinforce the
cool airmass in the wake of the departing low. Only a few clouds
will accompany this wave, so late week skies will be mostly clear as
high pressure builds in, with lows in the low to mid 40s Friday and
Saturday mornings, with highs both afternoons warming to the mid and
upper 60s.

The surface high pressure will move over the mid Atlantic states,
with overrunning developing atop the cool air already in place.
Light rain could break out in the west as early as mid day on
Sunday, with heavy cloudiness and increasing chances of rain Sunday
night and Monday as a low pressure area is expected to develop over
the Gulf states to shunt moisture northward. Highs both Sunday and
Monday look to be in the 60s, but we could see 50s in the northwest
which is typically cooler during CAD-type events.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours across
central NC. Westerly winds will be gusty this evening to 25kt,
then become 10kt late. Winds will increase on Tuesday with 15-25kt
winds expected from the west.

Looking beyond 00z Wed, VFR conditions will hold through Thursday
and Friday, high confidence. Moderate confidence on VFR conditions
Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>010-021>026-
038>041-073>076-083.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...Badgett



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