Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 171013
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
313 AM PDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure moving overhead will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the northern Sierra, northeast California, and western
Nevada today, with a dusting of snow possible above 9000 feet. Temperatures
will be well below average. Monday through Thursday will feature a warming
and drying trend with temperatures above normal for mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Upper level low pressure is dropping slowly south through northeast
California this morning. Some cloud top cooling is indicated in GOES-16
imagery along a deformation axis that extends from near Susanville to
Cedarville. While radar coverage is minimal (Sacramento Valley radar)
or non-existent in this area due to a repair outage at the Virginia
Peak/KRGX radar, web cams show some wet roads in northeast California
and automated rain gauges show some very light precipitation in
the past few hours.

The upper low will rotate across northern Nevada today. This will
bring scattered showers and a low chance for thunderstorms (instability
weak) to much of the region, especially north of Highway 50 this
afternoon. Winds will be a bit brisk, especially this morning as
northerly breezes combine with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Highs
will top out in the 60s to lower 70s for most valleys, which is 10-15
degrees below normal. This will be a drastic change from the 8-12
degrees above normal we have experienced this past week. Anyone with
plans in the backcountry needs to be prepared not only for the colder
temperatures (30s and 40s in high Sierra), but the potential for light
snow down to around 9000 feet in the northern Sierra.

The low slowly meanders towards the northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday.
While a few showers or afternoon storms may linger for extreme northeast
CA and northern NV Monday, by Tuesday warming aloft and drying will
limit any development with dry conditions expected. Temperatures
will also rebound, returning to near normal by Tuesday. -Snyder/Dawn

.LONG TERM...Wednesday into next weekend...
The main changes were to warm temperatures some the latter half of
the week with the models continuing to show the stronger ridge. Still,
these temperatures do not look overly anomalous, with highs in the
low to mid 90s in western NV valleys and near 80 in the Sierra valleys.
This is a few degrees above average, but nothing out of the ordinary
with overnight lows similar, maybe a little above average.

It still looks dry overall late in the week with a dry west flow aloft
Wed-Fri. The GFS and EC have a weak wave passing by late Thursday which
could trigger a few showers or storms near the Oregon Border.

There are differences for next weekend with the GFS dropping another
system into the Great Basin for the weekend while the EC keeps a
moderate amplitude ridge over the West Coast. The GFS track is a dry
one as it only pushes a backdoor cold front through as the low drops
into Northern Utah. The GFS cools temps back to average while the EC
has temps warming a good 10+ degrees above average. The ensembles
don`t show a good preference as the GEFS supports the EC more while
the EC ensemble shows some support for the operational GFS. Will
continue with the temps a few degrees above average for now. X

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers continue near and north of KSVE this morning. Local areas of
MVFR CIGS/VIS in these showers, but overall they are light enough
with VFR conditions most areas and also near and south of I-80.
Showers and thunderstorms to increase by 20Z with the best coverage
north of US 50. While conditions to remain VFR, MVFR CIGS/VIS are
expected in the heaviest showers for up to 1 hour. This includes
KRNO/KCXP/KTRK with about a 40-50 pct chance for these terminals to
be affected. Only a 20% chance for KMMH, with activity rapidly
diminishing after 03Z.

As far as winds, they will be from the N-NW today at around 10-20
kts. Winds diminish some after 05Z this evening. NW winds to continue
Monday afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kts, but shower/TS activity
expected to remain north and east of a KSVE-KLOL line. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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