Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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411
FXUS65 KREV 170314
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
814 PM PDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...

Snow and snow pellet showers continue this evening as the axis of
the cold upper level trough is more or less centered over the
Sierra at the time of writing. A fairly organized line can be seen
on radar and will impact I-80 throughout the Sierra into western
Nevada to about Fernley now through 9:30 pm. As this band moves
south, US-50 and US-95/95A may also be affected. Rapid reductions
in visibility down to a mile or less are possible in these
showers.

Now that the sun has set and roads begin to cool, light
accumulations of snow on roadways will become a concern over the
next couple of hours. The one mitigating factor will be the
breezy winds which will help dry the roads if they do become wet
or icy. However, these winds will also be weakening and becoming
light overnight. Therefore, it is a good idea to allow extra time
on roadways tonight into Tuesday morning in the event you
encounter visibility reductions and/or icy conditions. -Dawn

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM PDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

SYNOPSIS...

Snow showers will gradually come to an end this evening followed
by dry, but continued cool weather into Wednesday. Another cold
low pressure system will move through Wednesday night into
Thursday for more showers and cold temperatures. High pressure
returns for the weekend with warming temperatures and light winds.

SHORT TERM...

The core of the upper low is now moving through this afternoon
with snow showers, locally heavy continuing in the Sierra.
Scattered snow showers have popped up in Western Nevada, but
little lightning has been observed thus far. The core of the low
will move out this evening with a gradual decrease in showers due
to the loss of heating and forcing.

Dry weather returned for Tuesday, but it will remain cold with
abundant mid and high clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will
warm a few degrees, but it will feel like a bigger warmup as winds
will be quite light.

Another upper low is expected to arrive by Wednesday afternoon and
move through by Thursday afternoon. This storm will be smaller in
scale, it is also expected to track along the California Coast
before crossing inland near Point Conception. The track will favor
areas south of Highway 50, but even then it looks like a meager
system. Will continue with the high PoP/low QPF forecast there.
The best chance will likely be early Thursday morning as a weak
area of deformation sets up on the NE side of the low.

One this is for sure is that it will extend the period of much
below average temperatures into Thursday. North to northwest winds
will also make it feel colder, although not as cold as it is
today. X

LONG TERM...Friday Onward...

Low pressure moves east out of Nevada by Friday afternoon, but there
may be some lingering showers for locations south of Highway 50
early in the day. Shortwave ridging builds in across California and
Nevada for the remainder of Friday into Saturday. Temperatures do
appear to climb into the mid to low 70s for lower valleys and into
the 60s for the Sierra.

GFS is showing a weakness in the shortwave ridge which may allow for
some convection to develop near the Sierra on Saturday afternoon,
but the ECMWF shows this potential for Sunday afternoon instead.
Will go ahead and leave out any mention of convection for the
weekend for now.

By mid to late next week, long term simulations are showing the
potential for another Pacific storm to drop somewhere along the west
coast. The GFS and ECMWF have the storm tracking into the west coast
as early as Wednesday, but the ECMWF has it tracking more into the
Pac NW. Needless to say, there are some considerable differences
in the simulations for next week, so we can`t with certainty say
what the weather details look like, but the pattern does appear to
remain active. -Edan

AVIATION...

Brisk northwest winds in the 20-30 kt range along with spotty,
convective snow showers will persist through the early evening hours
tonight as the current low pressure system exits the region towards
the east. Turbulence and visibility restrictions will be an issue at
all area terminals due to the gusty northwest flow and -SHSN
resulting in quick periods of MVFR/IFR conditions, especially for
the Sierra terminals. No accumulation is expected.

By 06Z tonight, snow showers and winds should taper off resulting in
VFR conditions. Forecast confidence has grown with the possibility
of FZFG for KTRK between 09-16Z due to calm winds, less cloud cover,
and recent precipitation.

Tranquil weather for Tuesday with a potential system possibly
bringing light precipitation to the region by Wednesday afternoon.
-LaGuardia

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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