Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 191810
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1210 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Light rain showers continue over the Wind River Basin this
morning, with very isolated showers elsewhere across the forecast
area. Today is shaping up to be a repeat of last Saturday, with
cloudy and cool conditions. Isolated showers and maybe a
thunderstorm will be possible. Scattered showers could also
develop later this morning after sunrise across portions of
Johnson and Natrona counties. These showers should clear and end
over these areas by early to mid afternoon. Conditions will be
mainly dry Saturday night into Sunday, with very isolated
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Monday will be
the warmest day of the period, as the flow aloft becomes more
southerly. A closed low will form and dig over the Desert
Southwest during the day, which will help with warming
temperatures and moist air over the air. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected to form over the far west and the
higher elevations.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Unsettled weather will occur Tuesday and Wednesday. A weather
system moves from the Great Basin Tuesday and into the Northern
Rockies Wednesday. A south to southwest flow aloft over the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the result
over much of the area Tuesday afternoon and night. On Wednesday
the west and north will see the best chance of showers and storms
with lesser activity in the central and south. The flow aloft
turns northwest for Thurs and Fri. Some moisture remains in the
flow both days. Thus, a slight chance of showers and storms both
afternoons and evenings with better coverage in the mountains.
Next Saturday looks drier for most of the area with isolated
mountain showers and storms. As for high temps, 70s will be common
each day with upper 40s to upper 50s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat May 19 2018

West of the Continental Divide...KJAC, KBPI, KPNA, and KRKS

Surface wind of 15- 25kts from the east-northeast will prevail
through the day at KRKS. Ceilings should rise to VFR by 20Z this
afternoon with scattered afternoon showers developing. KJAC,
KBPI, and KPNA to generally remain VFR through 12Z/Sun. Weak
showers to be scattered about the area this afternoon before
diminishing between 00Z- 02Z/Sun with VFR conditions remaining.

East of the Continental Divide...KCPR, KCOD, KRIW, KLND, and KWRL

Lingering light rain and drizzle through 20Z this afternoon, but
limited in coverage. Low-level upslope flow and plenty of boundary
layer moisture will lead to persistent IFR/MVFR ceilings at all
but KWRL through midday Saturday, but persisting through 23Z vcnty
CPR. Other terminals will remain at least MVFR through much of
today, with clearing possibly not arriving until around 23Z/Sat.
Conditions to be VFR at all terminals by early this evening.
Thunderstorms not expected today with cooler, more stable airmass
in place. North to northeast surface winds will gradually diminish
through the day today. Northeast surface flow at most terminals
will decreasing through the day today.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Cool and cloudy conditions across the forecast area today. Any
rain showers will be isolated today, although scattered showers
will be possible across Johnson and Natrona counties through mid
afternoon. A stray thunderstorm will be possible across the far
west. Mixing and smoke dispersal will range from poor in the Big
Horn Basin, Wind River Basin and Natrona County to fair to good
elsewhere.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LaVoie
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Jones/Lipson
FIRE WEATHER...LaVoie



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