Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161939 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 339 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold air surging in behind a cold front, with rain changing to snow through Monday. Mid April freeze expected Monday night. Another cold front moves through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 PM Monday... Convective showers have cropped up in cold air advection regime this afternoon. Upper level low will continue to rotate north, leaving us on the backside with moist northwest flow in place. 85h thermal trough axis will swing east overnight and this will lead to some diminishing shower activity. Overnight temps will dip to at or just below freezing thus keeping freeze warnings in place. Mountain snow showers to linger Tuesday gradually coming an end. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday... Lingering low-level moisture sourced from the Great Lakes region continues to generate a few additional flakes in the north central mountains late Tuesday, however this will taper off entirely by around midnight. Then, models consistently show light rain showers associated with a warm front impacting the central and northern portions of the area early Wednesday morning - accumulations would be insignificant, but would favor the mountain areas with the additional upslope component. Have included this as slight chance and low-chance PoPs across the higher elevations. SW flow takes hold Wednesday with a decent warming trend making for lowland highs around 70, mountains around 60, during the afternoon. A compact, digging closed-low trough scoots across the southern Great Lakes region through the end of the period before being ingested into a larger mean trough over the Eastern CONUS. The cold front associated with this comes through Thursday night with widespread rain showers - some snow may work in across the mountains with loss of solar insulation and CAA reinforcement.
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As of 315 PM Monday... Cooler conditions with a drying trend are forecast Friday as deep NW flow takes hold behind an eastern seaboard trough. Some light snow showers are possible in the normal upslope areas Friday morning. Then, high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region this weekend with a gradual warming trend Saturday and Sunday. The next system is fairly uncertain in terms of impacts and timing - a cut off low is clearly evident and agreed-upon across long-range models and tracks across the central US throughout the long-term period, however some models ingest the system into the westerlies in our area while others keep the system to the South and thus we`d be dry and cool. Have included slight chance to chance PoPs primarily in the southern zones and in the mountains to account for this uncertainty and won`t hedge far from a consensus blend.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 pM Monday... MVFR to isold IFR ceilings expected tonight gradually improving on Tuesday. some mountain snows and obscuration may still be present through Tuesday. Surface gradients are tight and winds will be a bit gusty out of the west to northwest through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in showers and then snow showers will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H M M M L M M L H L HTS CONSISTENCY M H M M M H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H M L M L L M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY L H H L M M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M L L L L L L M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in snow showers into Tuesday morning across the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031. OH...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ/SL/MC NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...KMC/MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.