Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 210231 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1031 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1030 PM Friday... Adjusted hourly temperatures per latest sfc obs and HRRR model. Rest of forecast remains representative. As of 115 PM Friday... High pressure remains in place through the near-term with clear skies and dry conditions. Northwesterly winds continue today and gradually lessen to light and variable over night. This combined with clear skies and dewpoints below freezing indicate a good radiational cooling night especially in sheltered valleys. As a result, have followed the low-end of temperature guidance and decreased incised valleys an additional degree or two to account for this. This of course is a 2 meter temperature and extra consideration should be taken by users for potentially lower near-ground temperatures affecting vegetation. As a result a Freeze Warning has been posted for most of the area where the grow season has been included, with a frost advisory covering the remaining zones. This now includes Dickenson (frost), Buchanan (freeze) in VA and Wyoming, McDowell (both freeze) in southern WV. NE KY, Lawrence OH, and Wayne WV are also under a frost advisory. Very dry air lurks just aloft, but low-level weak winds especially tonight and tomorrow make it tough to mix these lower values down to the surface especially as winds decrease through tomorrow. However, it bears watching as there have been localized low dew points observed today where mixing is evidently happening. Current forecast indicates minRH in the mid- to upper-20`s today with slightly lower minRH in the low- to mid-20`s tomorrow with greater afternoon warming. High cirrus clouds start to creep in from the WNW Saturday afternoon ahead of a ridge aloft.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Upper-level ridge builds over area early in the period and remains in place into Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will push east across the lower Mississippi River valley into the southeastern states. Dry weather Saturday night into Sunday will give way to precipitation chances increasing from the southwest late Sunday night into Monday. Temperature guidance looks good and was generally followed. Readings should be near normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Upper level systems and a cold front pushing east will result in unsettled weather through the period. As a result, expect daytime temperatures will be below normal. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 735 PM Friday... CAVU. High pressure continues to build over the region providing clear skies and light to calm flow. Widespread VFR conditions through the period. A low pressure system in the southern stream will approach from the southwest Sunday night bringing pcpn spreading from south to north on Monday. MVFR conditions expected under light rain becoming with periods of IFR Monday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR possible should BR/FG occur tonight, however fog formation is unlikely at this time. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/21/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible Monday and Monday night under moderate rainfall. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ006>011-013>020- 024>031-033-034. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005. OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>086. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ087. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ004. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ/MC SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.