Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171843 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system brings rain and storms across the WV/VA/KY borders this afternoon and evening. Another system arrives Monday night through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday... Still expecting thunderstorms to develop under an unstable atmosphere across the southern portions of the cwa through tonight. Periods of sunshine were noted on visible satellite images across Buchanan and Dickenson counties in southwest VA during the afternoon hours. Freezing levels around 8500 feet and PWATS around 0.8 inches will produce periods of small hail with any moderate shower. Thunderstorms are possible across the south could produce large hail and gusty winds. The NAM and RAP13 models show and area of 1000 J/Kg across the eastern KY into VA under high deep layered shear of around 70 knots. These parameters are enough to produce or sustain strong updrafts capable to produce large hail and/or damaging winds. Posted in HWO. Will keep monitoring conditions in the event of convective initiation take place nearby most unstable areas across the south. Conditions will improve tonight, when the warm advection should shuts down as the center of the weakening sfc low pressure system moves east across the KY and VA border. Weak boundary layer winds and clearing spreading from north to south could allow for areas of fog specially over areas that received rain, and/or low stratus overnight tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Saturday... Overall drier weather starts to take hold on Sunday, with high pressure building into the region. Cloud cover, and moisture will increase across the area on Monday, with southeasterly flow developing, there is the possibility of a light wintry mix developing Monday across eastern zones. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Models continue to differ with system Monday night/Tuesday with track and timing of low pressure system, which will create rather soggy weather to start the long term. Depending on track of low, could be looking at the possibility of a wintry mix across the higher terrain and northern zones late Monday night/early Tuesday, before transitioning to rain area wide as the day progresses. Precipitation will gradually change over to snow by Tuesday night into Wednesday, with light accumulations possible across the higher terrain counties and N WV zones. Drier weather takes hold for the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Saturday... Radar images show that previous pcpn already moved east of the area. Although satellite images show some breaks in the sky mainly across the south, IFR post-precipitation low stratus or fog will affect CRW and BKW, while MVFR ceilings should slowly lift at other sites such as HTS and EKN. Additional isolated showers or storms will be possible across southeast OH this afternoon. A sfc low pressure system and an upper level wave will provide enough instability to produce thunderstorms some strong across the extreme south portions of WV and southwest VA this afternoon and evening. Ceilings should improve across the north through tonight, with lower clouds lingering across the south. Wind will be fairly light, turning more N to NW this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and level of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H L M M H L L L M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in precipitation Monday into Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.