Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242150 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 550 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Late winter storm exits tonight. High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week, with a warming trend. A wavy front meanders across mid and late part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 548 PM Saturday... Sent an update to upgrade portions of the winter weather advisory into winter storm warning. Dual-Pol radar indicate that pcpn have transitioned into heavy west snow across the southern extreme. Bumped up snow accumulations across the south. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 250 PM Saturday... The weak warm air advection aloft has not been able to overcome the freezing temperatures in place that are only now showing signs of increasing this afternoon. Moderate snow is also overcoming the relatively warm ground temperatures making accumulations occurring a bit easier. Therefore, have thrown the rest of the coal fields in the advisory going forwards with the change over to rain/snow mix still possible, but less of a window of opportunity. According to webcams in the area, snow is largely only sticking to off pavement type surfaces for the Tug Fork/coal fields/Tri State region, but some slush on the roads is becoming more likely. Once again, the cold air wins. For the southern mountains, no major changes with the bulk of the snow still yet to fall in this region. Did increase the snow amounts in in the highest elevations near Flat Top mountain in Raleigh County, with no consequence to the warning already in place there. Have the whole system exiting quicker than the previous forecast late tonight, with clearing also rapidly entering the picture, and expect a largely sunny day Sunday with temperatures in the lowlands back towards 50 degrees. Only the VA counties will have trouble getting rid of the lingering cloud cover, especially early in the day. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 520 PM Saturday... Period starts with a large high pressure system over eastern Canada ridging down the east coast, a source of very dry, and, originally, cold air. This provides a dry start, but may be a factor when a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Models now showing the possibility of rain associated with this warm front, making it over the mountains Tuesday morning, so the chance for freezing rain there is now in the forecast. The freezing rain ends by late Tuesday morning, and the chance for rain backs off into the middle Ohio Valley, as the warm front lifts through. The chance for rain shifts back east Tuesday night, as the first in a series of ripples, out ahead of northern and southern stream short wave trough, approaches, and begins flattening the east coast ridge. Central guidance temperatures accepted, allowing for the possibility of freezing rain Tuesday morning, but barely getting back to freezing over the coldest mountainous terrain Wednesday morning. Intervening daytime highs are also a bit below normal, though higher than this weekend. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 520 PM Saturday... Northern and southern stream short wave trough approach Wednesday through Thursday. It is the southern stream trough that will cross the area Thursday night if averaging guidance timing, with several waves of low pressure along the surface front ahead of it. Good low level inflow is depicted ahead of this system out of the gulf, as suggested by the surface pressure gradient approaching 4 4MB interval isobars. While models differ on the specifics of these waves as well as the position of the front as each goes by, we will have to monitor rainfall amounts during this period, especially if two potent waves overlap the same area. Drier, slightly chillier air moves in behind the frontal system near the end of the week and extended period. Central guidance temperatures still reflect the mildest weather Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a modest cool down behind the front. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... Late winter storm to bring IFR/LIFR snow to HTS and BKW as a strong low pressure system passes to the south of the area. Should be pretty consistent in the restrictions through the snowfall period in terms of both ceilings and visibilities, and then a slow recovery to the ceilings expected later tonight as the system exits. All other sites VFR through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow may change to rain/snow mix or rain at HTS, less likely at BKW. Timing of restrictions and improvements could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions foreseen. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ005-024-025- 033-034. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ013-026. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ515-517- 520. Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ516-518. OH...None. KY...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ102-105. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ101-103. VA...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ004. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ003. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.