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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 280144
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
944 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with a few
mountain showers lingering into Saturday morning. Ridging over
the Mid-Atlantic will bring mostly dry and warmer weather this
weekend and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 945 PM EDT Friday...

...Severe Threat has ended but lingering small stream and urban
water issues possible overnight...

Updated to expire the cancel the remaining counties in the
tornado watch. The severe weather threat has largely ended with
drier air moving in and upper level dynamics moving east. Three
separate bands of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms
are ongoing across the region, one along the WV/VA border,
another from Lynchburg VA to just west of Winston-Salem, and
another east of there over central VA. These are slow moving but
on the lighter side, so the flooding threat is not entirely
over, but additional QPF amounts should be less than a half
inch. Made a few changes to PoPs and QPF for this update. In
general we should be drying out once these bands are east, with
skies clearing along and east of the Blue Ridge. Lingering
stratus and isolated showers will be possible through morning for
the mountains.


As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

 Severe Thunderstorm continues until 10 PM for parts of central
VA and the Piedmont of VA...

A line of storms in central VA is exiting our forecast area
within the next hour. This was the largest threat of severe
weather this afternoon and evening, but sufficient forcing and
shear remains that the remaining more isolated storms could
create a damaging wind gust. With all the rain that has fallen
east of the Blue Ridge, any training storms or particularly
heavy rain producers could create localized flooding issues.
However, the widespread flooding threat has passed, and as such,
the Flood Watch for parts of central VA is being allowed to
expire at 8PM.

From the previous discussion...

 The next round of showers and storms has been
working its way into our area, currently impacting the Mountain
Empire and southeastern WV. Isolated storms in the Piedmont are
also persisting this afternoon. The western showers will move
east throughout the afternoon and this evening. Chances of
severe weather will be isolated, with the main threat being
isolated damaging wind and heavy rain.

This morning`s storms produced 1-2" for most of our areas east
of the Blue Ridge, with locally higher amounts as well. This has
primed the area that is under a Flood Watch for this afternoon
and evenings rain. Storms that are slow movers or areas that
have several showers throughout the afternoon could be in danger
of experiencing flash flooding.

As the trough pushes through overnight, a few lighter showers
could linger in the mountains of WV as late as Saturday morning,
but not expecting these to pose much of a hazardous weather
threat.

Behind the front high pressure moves in and will make for a
clear to partly cloudy Saturday without rain for most. Highs
will increase from the 60s and 70s we`re experiencing today into
the 70s west of the Blue Ridge, and low 80s east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

     Warmer and dry holiday weekend...

The Memorial Day Weekend will be mostly clear and sunny as an
upper high raises heights in addition to the surface high
pressure covering most of the Mid-Atlantic. Do not expect
precipitation during this period of the forecast. Assisted by
the persistent ridging, we will undergo a gentle warming trend,
with highs on Memorial Day in the 80s for almost the entire CWA,
and the potential to get into the 90s for some spots east of
the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

     Quiet period for most of the week...

High pressure will continue to suppress chances at rain and hold
cloud cover to a minimum till later in the week. This will keep
daytime highs in the 80s and 90s through at least Wednesday. A
late week frontal system will be the next significant chance at
rain as moister air is ushered in ahead of the approaching
boundary. Details surrounding this system are still uncertain,
but it looks to arrive late Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

Most of the area is under VFR conditions while we sit in a lull
before this afternoon`s showers and storms. Winds are 5-10kts
out of the south. Cigs have risen as we break out of stratus.
Scattered showers and storms will build in from the west
bringing some brief periods of TSRA through early this evening.
Tonight expect some clearing of cigs to occur as they lift and
dry high pressure moves in. A few lighter showers and stratus
will linger in the mountains of WV into Saturday morning, which
would only affect BLF and LWB.

Outside of a shower or storm, vsbys will be VFR, but inside
these showers there is potential for heavy rain that could
reduce visibility. Saturday will be largely VFR with winds
having turned to the west behind the front.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

From Saturday through Wednesday, expect mostly clear skies,
light winds, and VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...SH/VFJ
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...VFJ