


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --379 FXUS61 KRNK 131332 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 932 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each afternoon and evening through the week given warm and moist air situated over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. A weak cold front will start the week situated near the Ohio River, and push south across the Mid-Atlantic during the middle of the week. Temperatures across the region will be near to slightly above normal for mid-July. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 925 AM EDT Sunday... For the near term update this morning, have adjusted to include some pops for early convective trends as a cluster of shower development has had some persistence near Bluefield and some light reflectivity returns seen going into the Piedmont. Overall CAM consensus seems to hold off, however, on the main triggering and storm potential after about 1-3 pm this afternoon. The eastern part of the CWA still looks to have a bit greater chance of isolated severe development with wet microburst potential and damaging winds/localized flooding given progged higher instability and PWATs. Previous discussion follows... As of 210 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Patchy fog to start the day will burn off quickly after 8 am. 2) A few thunderstorms today will be capable of damaging wind gusts and heavy rain that may result in localized flash flooding. Concern through the remainder of the night is the development of patchy dense fog, particularly affecting the mountain river valleys, as well as locations with wet soils from rainfall on Saturday evening. Visibilities in these areas may fall to 100 feet or less by dawn, making for locally hazardous driving conditions. Fog will burn off quickly after 8 am given another day of strong heating upon us. Similar to the past several days, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop during early afternoon across the mountains, and eventually spread to the Piedmont by mid to late afternoon. The storms will again be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts, more so across the Piedmont given the warmer temperatures. Storms anywhere within our area will move slowly, and some may produce heavy rain with 3" to 4" per hour rates, and therefore localized flash flooding. Storm coverage and intensity will be highest during the afternoon through early evening, and then wane gradually as sunset approaches. The pattern repeats tonight, with the redevelopment of patchy fog and continued warm and muggy conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Typical summertime afternoon storms continue each day of the period. 2) Increased cloud cover will lower temperatures a few degrees midweek. More of the same is expected in the early half of the workweek, as the synoptic pattern remains stagnant. While afternoon storms are expected each day, Monday will likely see the least coverage. Drier air at the mid-levels will work into the area, which would help limit the convection to widely scattered coverage. Also, a low pressure system that forms near Florida will rob some of the moisture from the southerly flow around the Bermuda High. However, diurnal heating and a weak leeside surface trough will continue to allow storms to develop, but Monday may see fewer storms compared to the rest of the period. Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front from the Ohio Valley moves into the area and becomes stationary through midweek, further instigating afternoon storms. The aforementioned low pressure near Florida also pushes west, allowing for more moisture flow to return to the Mid-Atlantic. This will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms each afternoon, lasting into the evening hours before dissipating after sunset. Severe weather could be possible thanks to the presence of the front, but there is low confidence in the details at this time. With the synoptic setup, slow moving thunderstorms will be a concern each day, with heavy rainfall rates capable of producing isolated flash flooding. QPF for the period is expected to average around an inch area-wide. Higher amounts will be possible in the heaviest thunderstorms, though with some locations receiving little to no rainfall where the storms miss altogether. Temperatures will be slightly above average Monday, with highs in the lower 80s for the mountains, with lower 90s for the Piedmont. Tuesday and Wednesday will see temperatures drop into the 80s area-wide, thanks to increased cloud cover and rainfall with the stalled-out front in the area. Lows each morning will be in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) No pattern change expected, keeping afternoon storms possible each day. 2) Temperatures return to slightly above average. Heading into the second half of the week, little to no change is expected in the overall pattern, as the Bermuda High keeps a southerly flow of moisture across the area. The stalled front fizzles out, though a persistent leeside surface trough will enhance lift, with daily thunderstorms expected each afternoon/evening through the end of the period. A low pressure system along the northern Gulf Coast will further allow moisture to spread northward into the Mid-Atlantic, possibly increasing rain chances, though confidence is low in the strength and location of the low. PoPs remain modest for now, around 40-60% each afternoon, with the highest chances along/west of the Blue Ridge where the best moisture advection will be. This is due to the Bermuda High slightly shifting westward, along with the aforementioned Gulf low doing the same. If the high shifts far enough west, it would block the moisture flow, with drier conditions at least for the Piedmont, but confidence remains low this far out. The typical summertime weather continues into next weekend, when a strong cold front approaches the area, but once again stalls before clearing through. Temperatures also remain fairly consistent each day, mainly in the 80s for Thursday area-wide. For Friday and Saturday, highs creep up a few degrees, with low 80s in the mountains increasing to the low 90s in the Piedmont. Lows each morning will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... IR satellite imagery indicates river valley fog is developing within the mountain river valleys this morning. Following persistence from previous nights, have fog mentioned in multiple TAFs. Visibilities will be variable over short distances. Fog will burn off quickly after 1230Z with daytime heating. Cumulus field will develop as early as 15Z, with showers and storms beginning to develop during early afternoon in widely scattered fashion. Storms will again persist through the afternoon and evening, capable of locally strong wind gusts and LIFR visibilities in brief but intense rain. Not all locations will experience thunderstorm activity, but have enough confidence in coverage today that have enter mention of storms into some of the TAFs. Less confident on timing of storms however, so entered the window of when they are most likely into the TAFS, though they could occur before or after the timeframe. Coverage of storms will decrease toward sunset, with a few storms lingering into early Monday. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The weather pattern will change little through much of the workweek, remaining conducive for isolated to scattered afternoon & evening storms. Higher coverage of storms is forecasted for Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions but with the potential for locally dense fog and MVFR/IFR stratus developing each night, especially for locations that received significant rainfall during the evening prior. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...AB/NF SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...NF