Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 280144 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 944 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with a few mountain showers lingering into Saturday morning. Ridging over the Mid-Atlantic will bring mostly dry and warmer weather this weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 945 PM EDT Friday... ...Severe Threat has ended but lingering small stream and urban water issues possible overnight... Updated to expire the cancel the remaining counties in the tornado watch. The severe weather threat has largely ended with drier air moving in and upper level dynamics moving east. Three separate bands of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across the region, one along the WV/VA border, another from Lynchburg VA to just west of Winston-Salem, and another east of there over central VA. These are slow moving but on the lighter side, so the flooding threat is not entirely over, but additional QPF amounts should be less than a half inch. Made a few changes to PoPs and QPF for this update. In general we should be drying out once these bands are east, with skies clearing along and east of the Blue Ridge. Lingering stratus and isolated showers will be possible through morning for the mountains. As of 800 PM EDT Friday... Severe Thunderstorm continues until 10 PM for parts of central VA and the Piedmont of VA... A line of storms in central VA is exiting our forecast area within the next hour. This was the largest threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening, but sufficient forcing and shear remains that the remaining more isolated storms could create a damaging wind gust. With all the rain that has fallen east of the Blue Ridge, any training storms or particularly heavy rain producers could create localized flooding issues. However, the widespread flooding threat has passed, and as such, the Flood Watch for parts of central VA is being allowed to expire at 8PM. From the previous discussion... The next round of showers and storms has been working its way into our area, currently impacting the Mountain Empire and southeastern WV. Isolated storms in the Piedmont are also persisting this afternoon. The western showers will move east throughout the afternoon and this evening. Chances of severe weather will be isolated, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind and heavy rain. This morning`s storms produced 1-2" for most of our areas east of the Blue Ridge, with locally higher amounts as well. This has primed the area that is under a Flood Watch for this afternoon and evenings rain. Storms that are slow movers or areas that have several showers throughout the afternoon could be in danger of experiencing flash flooding. As the trough pushes through overnight, a few lighter showers could linger in the mountains of WV as late as Saturday morning, but not expecting these to pose much of a hazardous weather threat. Behind the front high pressure moves in and will make for a clear to partly cloudy Saturday without rain for most. Highs will increase from the 60s and 70s we`re experiencing today into the 70s west of the Blue Ridge, and low 80s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday... Warmer and dry holiday weekend... The Memorial Day Weekend will be mostly clear and sunny as an upper high raises heights in addition to the surface high pressure covering most of the Mid-Atlantic. Do not expect precipitation during this period of the forecast. Assisted by the persistent ridging, we will undergo a gentle warming trend, with highs on Memorial Day in the 80s for almost the entire CWA, and the potential to get into the 90s for some spots east of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Quiet period for most of the week... High pressure will continue to suppress chances at rain and hold cloud cover to a minimum till later in the week. This will keep daytime highs in the 80s and 90s through at least Wednesday. A late week frontal system will be the next significant chance at rain as moister air is ushered in ahead of the approaching boundary. Details surrounding this system are still uncertain, but it looks to arrive late Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Friday... Most of the area is under VFR conditions while we sit in a lull before this afternoon`s showers and storms. Winds are 5-10kts out of the south. Cigs have risen as we break out of stratus. Scattered showers and storms will build in from the west bringing some brief periods of TSRA through early this evening. Tonight expect some clearing of cigs to occur as they lift and dry high pressure moves in. A few lighter showers and stratus will linger in the mountains of WV into Saturday morning, which would only affect BLF and LWB. Outside of a shower or storm, vsbys will be VFR, but inside these showers there is potential for heavy rain that could reduce visibility. Saturday will be largely VFR with winds having turned to the west behind the front. Extended Aviation Discussion... From Saturday through Wednesday, expect mostly clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VFJ NEAR TERM...SH/VFJ SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...VFJ

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