Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 091349 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 949 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cover the area today through Saturday with dry weather and generally below normal temperatures. A low pressure system into the central United States will move to the east Sunday and Monday, bringing the next opportunity for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday will bring lingering showers in the mountains and warmer temperatures across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 945 AM EDT Friday... No major updates planned for the morning forecast update. Have primarily made minor tweaks to hourly temperatures, dew points, wind speeds/gusts, and sky cover based upon the latest observations and expected trends into the early afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are still possible across the far northeastern sections of the region this afternoon, but confidence is not high. As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Best chance of precipitation today northeast of Lynchburg... Upper low over the northeast United States begins to move northeast today and tonight with slightly higher 500 MB heights over the Mid Atlantic region, but still persistent northwest flow through a deep layer. Smaller short waves continue to rotate around the low, but main trough axis moves offshore tonight. Good agreement with the pattern in the synoptic scale models. Guidance has some low level convergence in central and eastern Virginia this afternoon, so will have the best probability of precipitation in the Virginia piedmont between 20Z/4PM and 02Z/10PM. Small spread in the models as far as today`s high temperature. No need to vary from the NBM numbers. Once again, the surface wind will decouple this evening, becoming calm to light and variable. Tonight high pressure will be centered over the southern Appalachians resulting in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Similar to the range in temperatures this morning, deeper valleys in the mountains will be colder than the nearby ridges. Surface dew points mainly in the 40s will lead to another night with below normal temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Friday Showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday... The upper level low over New England finally starts to shift eastward and farther away from the area by the middle of the weekend, and upper level flow will start to become more zonal over the region. At the surface, high pressure will remain situated over the Mid Atlantic through Sunday morning. A surface low over the Great Lakes with an attendant frontal system will advance towards the area by Sunday, and the southerly flow ahead of this front will advect warmer and moister air to the central Appalachians, a change from the recent stretch of dry days. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances begin to increase by Sunday afternoon as the warm front lifts northward into the area, and really ramp up Sunday night into Monday. The associated cold front will push eastward by Monday, increasing coverage of showers and possible storms from west to east. Winds are expected to be strong and gusty for Monday as the front crosses, given 850 mb winds of 40 to 50 knots and the strong pressure rises behind the front. At this time, the front looks to be across the area by late Monday into Tuesday, although some lingering upslope showers cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will be trending warmer through the weekend, but Monday will be a few degrees lower, as cooler air works its way into the region behind the front. Forecast confidence is moderate to high. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Friday... Near normal temperatures with chances of showers and storms midweek... The upper level trough will push eastward from the Great Lakes during this forecast period, and the associated surface low follows generally the same way. After the surface cold front crosses the region late Monday into Tuesday, showers and storms should come to an end as drier and cooler air pushes in, and Tuesday will likely be one of the dry days of the next work week. The upper trough and surface low look to dip southward into the Mid Atlantic by the middle of next week, which could bring another round of isolated to scattered showers to the western slopes of the mountains. Towards the second half of the week, a warm front will lift northward from the southeastern US into the Carolinas. Warmer and moister air with this feature will likely bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms from south to north. At this time, this feature looks to reach the area by Thursday, but long range models do show differences in timing and evolution of this feature, which leads to lower confidence in this forecast period. Temperatures will be near normal through this forecast period, with highs in the mid to upper 70s in the west, and low to mid 80s in the east. Forecast confidence is low to moderate. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 635 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Upper low over the northeast United States begins to move northeast today and tonight with slightly higher 500 MB heights over the Mid Atlantic region, but still persistent northwest flow through a deep layer. Smaller short waves continue to rotate around the low, but main trough axis moves offshore tonight. Good agreement with the pattern in the synoptic scale models. Some fog has developed early this morning along the Greenbrier River. Any impact on KLWB will be short-lived. Guidance has some low level convergence in central and eastern Virginia this afternoon, so will have the best probability of precipitation in the Virginia piedmont between 20Z/4PM and 02Z/10PM. The probability was too low to include in the KLYH TAF. Once again, the surface wind will decouple this evening, becoming calm to light and variable as high pressure will be centered over the southern Appalachians. Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday night. Areas of sub-VFR are expected Sunday through Monday as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region. Aside from lingering showers on the western slopes of the central Appalachians, Tuesday is expected to be dry and VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...AMS/RCS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.