Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 301044 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 644 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A large low pressure system will cross the northeast United States today and will be off the coast by Tuesday morning while another low tracks from the southern Rockies into the Gulf Coast region. The southern low will move off the southeast coast by Wednesday as high pressure fills in behind the low on Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Satellite pictures showed high clouds from Virginia through the southeast United States this morning. Despite the occasional high clouds enough mixing and sunshine to keep temperatures for most locations across southeast West Virginia, southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina above normal today. Bufkit forecast soundings had mixing late this morning and through the afternoon into the deep layer of dry air above 3000 feet. This will lower the humidity this afternoon and bring stronger winds down to the surface. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common in the mountains and foothills. By late tonight area is between the surface low well offshore and the low over the Gulf Coast region. Winds will diminish overnight as the ridge between the two lows moves across the Mid Atlantic states. Cloud cover will also increase tonight. Some lower clouds will develop along the western slopes of the central Appalachians and much deeper moisture will be spreading toward the region from the southwest. Will keep probability of rain low through 8AM/12Z Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... Tuesday will see widespread showers starting in the afternoon as a result of a southern stream system passing to the south of our area. Rain should continue overnight and begin to curtail on Wednesday morning. With some northerly flow pushing over the mountains, widespread precip will end Wednesday morning, but some upslope showers could continue into the early Wednesday afternoon. Some broad ridging begins to force its way in and clear things out overnight Wednesday for a dry Thursday. A reprieve from the summer-like heat is in order, with highs in the midweek in the 50s, inching into the 60s for the Piedmont on Thursday. As a result of fairly consistent cloud cover, overnight lows in this period should only get into the 40s, mid 30s for some higher elevations in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Sunday... Starting off Thursday under ridging/high pressure building in overhead. This will allowing for dry conditions and cooler temperatures back to around normal for this time of year. Still may see some spots around freezing Thursday and Friday morning, but will begin to see temperatures moderate moving into the weekend as the flow begins to turn more southerly in advance of the next system. Dry conditions give way to the possibility of showers by Saturday. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the progression of the system next weekend, but at the moment, not looking too potent or a huge rain maker. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... Region will be between low pressure over New England and high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The pressure gradient will be enough early this morning to have wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots at higher elevations. Once mixing begins late this morning wind gusts will increase. Bufkit forecast soundings indicated momentum transfer of 40 to 45 knots between 15Z/11AM and 23Z/7PM. The strongest winds will be in the mountains and foothills. Cloud cover will increase tonight and ceilings will begin to lower overnight. Expect ceilings to remain VFR through the 06Z then become MVFR from the west so for now have KBLF and KLWB lowering before 12Z/8AM. Any rain will hold off until after 8AM/12Z. Above average confidence on ceiling and visibility today and tonight. Average confidence on wind. Extended Aviation Discussion... Rain is likely Tuesday and Tuesday night with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions. SCT MVFR showers are possible Wednesday then dry again with VFR ceilings and visibility on Thursday. There is a chance of showers in the mountains on Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 645 AM EDT Monday... Issuing an Enhanced Fire Danger Statement in collaboration with the Virginia Department of Forestry and surrounding National Weather Service offices. Will be contacting North Carolina Forest Service this morning to check conditions in northwest NC. After very poor humidity recovery overnight, dry fuels combined with gusty wind and low humidity air mass will create conditions that will enhance the spread of fire today. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... An FAA communications outage has disrupted the full distribution of the Lynchburg (KLYH) observation. Restoration time is unknown. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...AMS FIRE WEATHER...AMS EQUIPMENT...AMS

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