Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 131857 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 257 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure will maintain control on the region through Saturday. A couple of disturbances may spark a few showers and isolated storms mainly in the mountains, especially Friday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... An upper level trough will slowly move over the central Appalachians tonight, then off the Virginia coast. With dry high pressure underneath this trough, only shallow scattered cumulus clouds are expected this afternoon. These clouds will fade away this evening. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to low 40s across the mountains and low to mid 40s east of the Blue Ridge. Some non- sheltered mountains valley may see patchy frost again Friday morning, but areal coverage not enough for another advisory. As the weak upper level low tracks over the region Friday, more clouds and a slightly better chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. There exist some lift and energy associated with the low overhead, but the main driving force for convection will be orographical and diurnal heating. The area with the best chance to see rain will be the Mountains Empire, Grayson highlands and the NW NC High Country. Highs Friday will be in the 60s across the mountains and lower 70s east of the Blue Ridge.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... Dry Saturday. Increasing rain chances Sunday. High pressure is expected to maintain control through Saturday promoting mainly dry but cooler than normal weather. After Saturday, expecting a return flow of moisture associated with a warm front that will approach from the southwest. This will introduce first bonafide widespread rain chance with opportunity for showers continuing early next week as warm front stalls over the forecast area. Attm, rainfall amounts do not look all that impressive with models suggesting a tenth to a quarter of an inch through Sunday evening...but with warm front hanging up across the area Sunday night into early next week, expect opportunity for additional wetting.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... Unsettled weather expected for the first half of the week. The overall weather pattern looks to remain fairly active through midweek as front bisects the region. Synoptic and ensemble guidance continue to show fairly good agreement on this...suggesting potential for waves energy to ripple east along the front creating opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Organization and intensity of this activity will be highly dependent on the instability which will be highest upstream of the forecast area across the OH/TN valleys. It appears that we may remain on the cool side of the front, at least for Monday, and this will favor temperatures on the cooler side of guidance per upstream cloud debris and the tendency for areas east of the mountains to get wedged in when we remain on the north side of a front. If there is no significant push to the warm front, which some of the model guidance suggest, this scenario may play out again Tuesday and Wednesday with much of the forecast area remaining stuck in a wedge configuration. Confidence is low to moderate for exact timing of rain chances and temperature forecast. Bust potential for temperatures is high given the pattern. QPF is highly questionable per need to resolve shower/thunderstorm coverage and whether there is a chance we could partake in wetting from an upstream MCS. If there is any certainty, our NW CWA (WV) will maintain the highest probabilities through the forecast period since this part of the CWA will be closer to the higher instability region.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions for all sites through the forecast period with some scattered to broken high based cumulus this afternoon. These clouds will fade this evening. Winds remain out of the north to northeast and light. Extended Aviation Discussion... Expect mainly VFR through the extended though some spotty showers could induce sub-VFR especially in the mountains Friday afternoon into early Saturday and possibly Sunday, but confidence is lower on that.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...RCS

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