Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 160636 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 236 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will help to bring scattered showers ad perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area through Tuesday. High pressure strengthens over the Mid-Atlantic by mid week and persists through next weekend, bringing a period of dry and warm weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... The CONUS will remain in a split flow regime in the near term, with an active northern stream over Canada, the northern Great Lakes, and the northeast, and a southern stream covering the southern third of the country. WSW flow over Appalachia will steer weak short wave energy over the area, providing some chances for showers today and perhaps a few claps of thunder this afternoon. A wavy frontal boundary extended from low pressure near the OK and TX panhandles towards KY/WV/VA. The (warm) front will lift north today and provide somewhat of a focus for any convection that can develop. Radar imagery is showing some echoes developing to our west and southwest already. However, last night`s KRNK sounding shows we do have some drier air to overcome before we get any rain this morning, and that will be a limiting factor in storm total QPF as isentropic lift ramps up today. Instability will be on the low end due to the extent of cloud cover...but right along the front there may be enough convergence for some weak thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. Cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday despite increasing WAA in light westerly winds. The warm front remains in the area overnight into early Monday, but shower coverage will be markedly reduced with the loss of daytime heating. We`ll remain overcast with lows generally warmer than tonight and in the upper 40s to lower 50s. /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - High Confidence in Wind Directions and Speeds && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Sunday... ...Unsettled Weather Expected Monday and Tuesday Before Dry High Pressure Settles In Mid Week... Low pressure in the west central U.S. strengthens, lifting a warm front into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday. This front, combined with NW flow aloft and mid level disturbances will provide additional shower and thunder storm chances for both Monday and Tuesday. The difference between the two days will be available instability. While the energy is there Monday to fire showers and maybe an isolated thunder storm or two, overall instability will be lacking due to ample cloud cover: Tuesday, however, will feature better instability thanks to clearer skies. That instability should help drive more thunderstorm activity, with best chances remain west of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures wise, ample cloud cover Monday is going to keep temperatures down, with areas in the east struggling to even reach 70 degrees for the day. Meanwhile areas in the west will sit in the mid 50s to mid 60s. After Tuesday, an upper level ridge and its surface high starts to settle into the Mid-Atlantic: this brings a big change in our overall weather pattern, ushering in a more summer time like pattern as temperatures start to swell. Precipitation chances have decreased Wednesday and into the end of the work week as subsidence looks to be strong enough to mostly overpower any diurnally driven precipitation. Little precipitation over this period may start to become a concern for starting drought conditions as we are already running behind for this year. Forecast confidence is moderate. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Sunday... ...Dry High Pressure Persist Until Late Weekend... High pressure remains settled over the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the work week before it starts to shift southward. Guidance is in decent agreement that the subtropical high will start to shift southward going into the start of the weekend. This in turn opens the area up to a possible backdoor front that could push some rain chances down into the area, which would not be a bad thing at that point with several warm days expected with no rainfall. That mentioned, temperatures going into the long terms look toasty with areas in the east expected to reach 90s by Saturday as 850 temperatures look to swell to +16 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions should continue through the period. A warm front will approach from the west this morning, keeping overcast VFR skies around for the remainder of the TAF cycle. Ceilings will hover in the FL050-FL035 range throughout the day. Scattered showers will shift eastward during the day, so kept VCSH in for most TAF sites. LYH may not see any showers until the afternoon, and DAN has the lowest chance of seeing any shower activity. By the afternoon, ceilings may approach MVFR along and west of the Blue Ridge with BLF having the highest chance of reaching this threshold. There will be little if any -TSRA, but a strike or two is possible. LLWS should not be an issue with winds increasing to light and westerly after 12Z. Extended Aviation Discussion... Ceilings and visibilities could fall toward MVFR and maybe even lower Monday morning due to low clouds and fog. Prevalent cloud cover and scattered showers will persist for Monday through Wednesday as a warm front continues to linger in the area. Even a few thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is too low to pinpoint where and when yet. By Thursday, high pressure will bring warmer and drier weather along with VFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...RR LONG TERM...RR AVIATION...SH

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