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774
FXUS61 KRNK 131826
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
226 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

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Confidence continues to increase for an impactful convective
environment on Monday as a front passes through. Plummeting
temperatures will follow in the wake of the front, with wintry
weather and strong gusty winds possible on the backside of the
frontal passage.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of southeast
West Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands through this evening.

Temperatures look to plummet Tuesday through Thursday next week
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

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1) A strong cold front approaches Monday, with
increasing chances for severe weather expected across the
region.

2) Cold temperatures return Tuesday in the wake of a cold
front, and the mountains may receive some upslope snow showers.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong cold front approaches Monday, with
increasing chances for severe weather expected across the
region.

A strong upper level trough is expected to dig south through the
central Plains on Sunday, and become slightly negatively tilted
as it progresses east into the Tennessee valley by Monday
morning. This negatively tilted trough will create an area of
enhanced forcing for ascent across the Carolinas and Virginia
Monday. An associated surface low is expected to deepen into the
980s pressure range across Michigan on Monday, which will lead
to significant pressure falls on the order of 20 mb across the
region from Sunday night to Monday in the 12 hours leading up to
the frontal passage. This surface low is expected to have a
strong cold front associated with it that will be pushing
through the region through the middle of the day and into the
afternoon and evening hours.

Forcing and wind shear seem to not be a limiting factor with
this event; however, instability is one part of the three
ingredients needed for severe weather that will be slightly
limited. While surface dewpoints are expected to surge into the
low 60s areawide, the timing of the front moving through the
region is extremely important if severe weather is to occur.
While height falls from the incoming upper level trough can aid
in overcoming limited instability by cooling the thermal profile
above, there needs to be no low level caps that impede surface
parcels from getting lifted. At this time, there are no
indications of low level caps developing, and given the upper
level and surface dynamics described above, there should be no
limiting factors as this system approaches in time. As CAM
guidance comes into range, expect to see instability levels
increase from the NBM mean of around 500 J/Kg of SBCAPE across
the region to a more modest 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE in the
coming days.

While the severe storms will be the main show on Monday, the
back end of this front is expected to quickly drop temperatures
across the area, to where snow will once again likely occur
across mountain locations Monday evening causing a disruption to
the Monday evening commute. At this time, snow totals and
intensity are still uncertain, and will be snuffed out in the
coming days as more CAM ensemble data comes into range.

Finally, an additional impact with this system, will be the
non-thunderstorm winds behind the cold front that will lead to
gusts of 35-45+ mph at higher elevations and mountain locations
Monday night into Tuesday. The Piedmont will likely see gusts in
the 25-35 mph range. Overall, an impactful system is expected
Monday, with potentially three seasons all wrapped into one day
forecast again for the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures return Tuesday in the wake of a cold
front, and the mountains may receive some upslope snow showers.

After a cold front brings storms to the area, there will be a rapid
reduction in temperatures on Monday night into Tuesday, and things
will remain quite frigid into Wednesday. Despite the fact that March
can still feature cold snaps and wintry weather, this particular
event will feel shocking, as Monday highs are progged to be in the
60s and 70s, and then Monday night lows will bottom out in the teens
and twenties. Tuesday will be the coldest, as we sit nearly 3.5
standardized anomalies below normal, which translates to a
probability of reaching these temperatures in March of less than 4%.

In addition, strong winds will be behind the front, and become
oriented northwesterly. Gusts of 30-40 MPH are likely, and as
guidance on this system has been trending more intense, those
numbers may not be the upper limit. A mostly upslope driven snow
event will occur later in the night Monday into Tuesday morning.
Some deterministic guidance has a rather high impact event in
Western Greenbrier, but this seems to be an outlier. Much higher
confidence lies in a forecast of lighter amounts. Too early to be
placing hard numerical values on a snow forecast though.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hour
TAF period. While conditions remain VFR, southwesterly winds of
around 25-35 knots today will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening before winds start to diminish through
the overnight hours. Winds will continue to occasionally gust in
excess of 20 knots along ridge lines and higher TAF sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will remain through Sunday morning, with gusty
southeasterly winds once again returning on Sunday ahead of
another cold front that will move through the region Sunday into
Monday. This cold front should bring rain and sub-VFR
conditions to all terminals by Sunday night, and moves out of
the area by Monday night. Conditions look to improve to VFR
again by Tuesday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ020.
NC...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ043-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/VFJ
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/EB