-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 150902
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
502 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south this afternoon. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible with the passage of this front.
This front lifts back north as a warm front on Tuesday in
advance of the next low pressure system expected to approach the
region by the middle of the week. Temperatures are expected to
remain above normal until the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening.

Current surface analysis has a cold front draped from east to
west across southern Pennsylvania with areas of thunderstorms
still ongoing as far south as Maryland. This nighttime
convection will diminish near daybreak, but will spread debris
clouds south across the area this morning.

Skies should still be partly sunny through today and will see
gradual clearing through early afternoon. Temperatures already
starting on the warmer side and have been running several
degrees above guidance already this morning. Should have no
problem heating into the upper 70s to perhaps mid 80s in the
east by this afternoon under strong southwest flow.

Ahead of the approaching front, should see dew points into the
50s and model soundings are indicating steep lapse rates
resulting in MLCAPE and SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg by the
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected the develop along the
front and modest deep layer shear coupled with progged
instability should support at least a few strong to severe
storms capable of strong winds and a potential for large hail.

Storms should begin to diminish after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
... As of 420 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday

2: Temperatures above normal ahead approaching frontal system


A warm front will retreat to the north on Tuesday, moving the best
chances for storms north of the CWA. However, in the warm sector of
an approaching frontal system, we will see scattered to isolated
showers and storms around the area. The best coverage on these days
is likely to be in the mountains west of the Blue Ridge, while some
more stable air further east in the Piedmont and central VA will
limit coverage for the middle of the week. The strength of these
storms will likely be sub-severe, as the area will no longer have
support from the northward retreating front.

It will feel summery with temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s
because we will be situated in the warm sector for an extended
period of time with southerly flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
... As of 440 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Repeated frontal passages will maintain a wet forecast

Frequent frontal passages will result in an unsettled weather
pattern, so it will be necessary to keep a mention of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. For the time being, none of them are
displaying characteristics of a particularly strong setup, either
for severe weather or flood concerns. As we get closer to the
forecast time, though, this could evolve. Currently, the time period
with the least expected coverage is Thursday into Thursday night, in
a post-frontal environment, just before a second front trails across
a good portion of the eastern CONUS. Temperatures are expected to be
five to ten degrees above normal Thursday and Friday, and then go on
a cooling trend over the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Monday...

Widespread VFR across the region this morning. A frontal
boundary across southern PA will spread high clouds into the
region by daybreak, but most should be SCT above 5kft.

Cold front will continue to move south throughout today and a
round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible by mid-
afternoon and into early evening. Have added VCTS to all TAF
locations, with the exception of LWB. Thunderstorm activity
should wane a few hours after sunset, but showers could remain
through late in the period.

Brief vsby reductions and strong winds in and around
thunderstorms will be possible. Some thunderstorms will also be
capable of large hail.

Overall, VFR will be the prevailing category outside of
thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Mainly VFR through Tuesday, though cloud cover is expected to
increase. Seeing a push of stable air and cloud cover with
northeast wind on the cold side of the boundary in central and
eastern Virginia on Tuesday. This may result in a better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and MVFR
ceilings in the piedmont.

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG