Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 200125 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 925 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the region and bring pleasant but chilly conditions to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the weekend. An area of low pressure will then move across the southeastern US and bring a good chance of rain to the region for the first part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 930 PM EDT Thursday... Few changes were made to the forecast this evening, as clouds continue to dissipate as dry air moves into our area. With 00Z RNK sounding extremely dry (PWAT at 0.17 inches) and weak echoes on RLX radar vanishing, removed small POPS across the Greenbrier Valley. Confidence is low on frost/freeze potential tonight. Will continue to leave current headlines in place, but high-res models keep axis of low level ridge to our west and enough and light sfc winds. Still, with lows close to freezing, some patchy frost/freezing conditions are still possible. Chilly conditions persist through Friday with temperatures remaining well below normal.
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&& && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM EDT Thursday... Weather will be quiet but cool early in the period with high pressure working in from the Great Lakes. Friday night may be more ideal for frost in the piedmont as winds subside moreso, and RH surges to around 80 percent. Sunny skies Saturday with a light east to southeast flow will allow for highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s areawide, coolest in the higher ridges. Saturday night, the high shifts to the mid-Atlantic while a low pressure system shifts to the lower MS Valley. As upper flow turns more southwest anticipate an increase in high clouds. This will hedge temps a little warmer with mid to upper 30s west to lower 40s east. Sunday appears dry as main bulk of lift and moisture shifts to the TN Valley south into the Gulf of Mexico. Look for more clouds with highs in the 60s across most of the area. By Sunday night, southeast flow will increase and transport of Gulf and Atlantic moisture should reach the southern Blue Ridge and adjacent foothills of NC into far southwest VA by dawn Monday. Latest models are coming around toward a wet Monday, but the weekend stays dry. No ptype issues with temps in the 40s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... .As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... Not a lot of confidence in the models as they continue to shift back and forth with track of upper and surface low across the Gulf Coast States early next week, then offshore by Wednesday followed by another front Wednesday-Wed night. Ensembles are leaning toward a wetter solution similar but not as wet as the 12z GFS. The 0z ECM appears driest early on. Will increase pops Mon-Tuesday but cap pops in the likely range with best coverage over our southern CWA. High pressure over the mid-Atlantic coast then offshore will provide an easterly fetch and in-situ wedge which could hold temps down quite a bit Monday, with 40s in the mountains of NC/far southern VA but due to uncertainty on northern shield of rain will have temps a little milder but still at or just under mex mos elsewhere. Low tracks to the GA coast by Tuesday morning, then northeast off the NC coast by Wednesday morning as northern stream wave allows another front to cross Wednesday night. So in essence most of the extended period will hold a threat of rain with best chance Mon-Monday night into early Tuesday, possibly a break Tue-Tue night but will not have sub-30 percent pops at this time. Should be drier by later Thu-Thu night. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 806 PM EDT Thursday... Gusty winds will gradually diminish at TAF sites overnight as high pressure builds over the region. Locations east of the Blue Ridge mountains will generally have VFR conditions throughout the period. SCT to BKN MVFR clouds west of the Blue Ridge will become VFR this evening into tonight. VFR condition will continue Friday. High confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR conditions into Saturday as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds will continue to diminish into Saturday. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR even while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night with rain becoming more widespread across the Mid Atlantic region on Monday. MVFR/IFR are possible Tuesday in Rain and low clouds. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ022-023- 032>034-043>047-058-059. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ024-035. NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ003>006-019- 020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/PH SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...KK/MBS

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