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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KSHV 240008 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
708 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Dry conditions will begin to break down by tomorrow, allowing for
an extended period of stormy weather to work it`s way into the
region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
north of I-20, as the region comes under the influence of a cold
front moving through the Midwest. From there, we will more or less
become sandwiched between flow patterns for the rest of the
short-term, containing the rest of the rain chances to our north.
However, included in this "flow sandwich" will be a shift in the
flow aloft back to the south. This will allow for temperatures to
warm into the mid-80s in some locations over the next few days,
before temperatures really begin to increase towards the weekend.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

By the start of our long-term, the aforementioned "flow sandwich"
will finally begin to break down, as upper-level troughing really
begins to dig in to our west. In turn, upper-level ridging will
firmly take hold of the region, allowing for afternoon highs to
push into the upper-80s in some locations. However, the real story
of the long-term are multiple days of severe weather beginning on
Friday, and remaining through the weekend. Currently, the best
chances for severe weather appear to be on Friday afternoon, and
again during the evening/overnight hours on Sunday. Both of these
events will be in association with a squall line moving through
the region. There is still plenty of discrepancy in the overall
timing and extent of hazards anticipated, but at this time it
looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible both days.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will be possible with the convection
moving through the region on Friday, resulting in parts of the
region now being highlighted in a Slight ERO from the WPC.
Rainfall rates could be rather steep, with some locations picking
up 1-2 inches of rain in a few hour window

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue this evening, although extensive cu
cigs continue to rapidly spread ENE from E TX into SW AR/NW LA
attm, with these cigs expected to overspread the SHV/ELD
terminals by early to mid-evening, and MLU by or shortly after
06Z. These cigs may lower/become MVFR across E TX after 07Z
Wednesday, eventually spreading into SW AR/NW LA after 12Z. In
fact, an approaching weak sfc front that will enter extreme SE
OK/portions of SW AR overnight will eventually become stationary
after 12Z Wednesday, and will focus a longer duration of MVFR cigs
over extreme NE TX/Srn AR through the morning, with brief IFR cigs
possible between 12-15Z across the E TX terminals. MVFR cigs
generally along/S of I-20 should eventually lift and become VFR
by/after 18Z, although the lower cigs farther N near the front
will take a bit longer to return to VFR. The front will also focus
isolated to widely scattered convection through the day, but
should remain mostly N of the TXK/ELD terminals, and thus, low
confidence precludes mention in the TAFs attm. S winds 3-7kts
tonight will become WSW around 5kts by 15Z over extreme NE TX/SW
AR/N LA, but remain S 5-7kts across E TX. /15/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  83  65  85 /   0  20  10  10
MLU  58  81  63  85 /   0  20  10  10
DEQ  59  74  60  79 /  10  40  40  40
TXK  63  78  64  82 /  10  30  30  20
ELD  59  77  60  82 /  10  30  20  20
TYR  64  81  66  82 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  63  81  64  82 /   0  20  10  10
LFK  62  83  63  84 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...15