Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 141617

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1017 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The upper level trough along the west coast will
expand east across the western states the next couple of days.
This trough will bring windy conditions along with showers and a
few thunderstorms today, followed by cooler temperatures and
occasional precipitation through the upcoming weekend.


.DISCUSSION...The eastern Pacific upper trough currently along the
west coast will pivot inland and expand across much of the western
CONUS tonight through Thursday. The core of this trough will
remain centered across Oregon/northern California through the end
of the week, then shift east and gradually weaken as it moves
across the Great Basin over the weekend.

Downstream from coastal trough a somewhat strong southerly flow
aloft exists across the Great Basin. Ahead of the main trough the
associated surface cold front has advanced into northeast Nevada
this morning. The position of the surface boundary just off to the
west of Utah combined with the strong southerly flow aloft will
create gusty southerly winds along the western valleys today.
Current suite of wind advisories appear fine for now, though with
extensive cloud cover and an early start to convection, reaching
wind advisory criteria may be a bit of a struggle this afternoon.

Scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms have formed
across the western half of Utah this morning. This convection
remains weakly forced so far, and will probably remain that way
until the low-level baroclinic zone advances east across
northern/western Utah late today.

Concerning the aforementioned baroclinic zone, showers and
isolated thunderstorms are lining up nicely along the near 700mb
baroclinic over northeast Nevada late this morning. This boundary
should remain active throughout the day, with convection likely to
intensify a bit late this afternoon and evening as the upper jet
takes a more favorable position to support stronger upper
divergence. Rapid weakening of the near 700mb baroclinic will
bring the stronger convection to a fairly quick end late this
evening. Lingering showers will persist overnight and into
Thursday morning, though deep convection will no longer occur.

Another significant vorticity lobe rotating northeast out of the
parent upper low will bring an increase in precip again to much of
Utah late Thursday through Thursday night. Cooler air working into
the state will lower snow levels, though any significant
accumulations will still remain at fairly high elevations.

Shortwave ridging Friday will reduce showers to isolated coverage
during the day. The last part of the storm will be the passing of
the main trough over the weekend. Precip will increase once again
Friday night, with the best chance for widespread precip Saturday
through early Sunday.

Issued an earlier update to increase Pops across western Utah


.AVIATION...South winds will increase at the SLC terminal today,
with gusts greater than 30 mph likely between 16Z and 00Z.
Gusty/erratic winds are also possible in association with showers
and thunderstorms across the area. These showers will increase after
18Z, with periods of ceilings below 7000 feet likely, and MVFR
conditions possible under the heavier showers. There is a 20 percent
chance of lightning at the terminal, most likely between 21Z and 02Z.


UT...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ015-016.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ003>005.




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