Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 160251
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
851 PM MDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The low pressure system over northern Nevada will
finally weaken and move north away from the area tonight through
Wednesday. A dry and warm southerly flow aloft will develop
midweek, followed by the next Pacific storm system arriving
Thursday night. Unsettled conditions will continue into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper low that has been parked over north
central Nevada the past few days is finally lifting northward and
weakening as a second low approaches the California coast. Earlier
showers and thunderstorms that developed over northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming in the moisture and instability from the
weakening system are diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.
Overall feel that things will be quiet overnight with respect to
convection, though at least a few showers are possible over the
northwest corner of Utah as the wave slides by. Updated the
forecast earlier to lower POPs a bit for this evening; no
additional updates planned.

There will be a relative lull in afternoon convection tomorrow in
a drier and more stable airmass in between systems. Increasing
southerly flow ahead of the next system will result in noticeable
warming of temperatures compared to today, with maxes running
around 10F above seasonal normals. The drier and warmer weather
will persist into Thursday ahead of the low, though instability on
the front end of the approaching trough will likely result in
better coverage of convection compared to Wednesday.

The second Pacific low will make its way across the forecast area
Thursday evening into Saturday, bringing another period of
unsettled and somewhat cooler weather along with it, with the best
convection again expected to be over northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming. Convection is expected to decrease in coverage again on
Sunday, though lingering moisture and instability will keep some
around. Another Pacific low is expected to approach next Tuesday,
continuing the recent trend of relatively unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the
night with decreasing clouds. Northerly winds are expected to
return to the southeast between 04Z and 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Traphagan

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