Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 261141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
641 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will remain
light and variable through much of the period with northeast wind
possible in the afternoon and evening.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 314 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020/

Cool, fairly calm, and dry are the big words to kick off Sunday.
Surface high pressure remains in control as a subtle upper-level
ridge axis continues its eastward propagation. This will lead to the
continuation of fair weather conditions leading into Monday.

The upper-level pattern is fairly zonal across much of the
Southeast, and really won`t change all that much over the next few
days. However, a couple shortwave perturbations will propagate
eastward, and this will aide in keeping our weather pattern at least
mildly interesting for the first half of the work week. These
shortwave troughs will provide a concentrated zone of ascent, aiding
in the development of showers and possibly thunderstorms. The big
question yet to be completely resolved is will these systems hold
together long enough to provide us rain.

Late Monday has the greatest chance for that to take place, but it
is still fairly week. Convection is quick to fire off over the warm
and moist central Gulf, but the rapid weakening of the shortwave
trough, and the fairly hostile environment that the convection will
be moving into, really only yield the opportunity for some scattered
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm favoring SW Florida. A
similar story is playing out for Wednesday too, but favoring the
Nature Coast instead.

Late week is when things become much more interesting. Details are
still fuzzy this far out, and model guidance differs significantly,
particularly in timing. However, conditions are favorable ahead of a
much deeper trough axis for a low pressure system to develop that
will bring unsettled weather for the weekend. In the wake of this
front, cooler and breezier conditions can be expected with high
pressure again in control.

Pleasant boating conditions continue through Sunday. Several
weather systems throughout the week could lead to rounds of
showers beginning on Monday and continuing off and on through the
rest of the work week, but conditions are expected to remain
otherwise benign for boating with northerly winds turning
southerly as the next system approaches and then northerly again
once it passes.

With a dry high pressure system in control, dewpoints will likely
drop across much of the region below 35 percent for a couple hours
this afternoon. ERCs also creep into the upper 20s to around 30 for
some counties as well. However, winds are expected to remain light.
As such, no red flag conditions are expected at this time. Humidity
values will improve towards the evening and will begin to rebound
further heading into Monday as a weak low pressure disturbance moves
toward the Florida coastline, potentially bringing with it a few
showers. No further fire weather concerns exist through the
remainder of the forecast period.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  66  52  70  55 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  70  54  73  59 /   0   0  30  10
GIF  67  51  72  53 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  68  50  72  55 /   0  10  30  10
BKV  67  42  71  46 /   0  20  20  10
SPG  66  56  70  58 /   0  20  30  10


Gulf waters...None.


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