Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 191649

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
949 AM MST Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains
Monday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions to continue into next
week. Expect above normal daytime temperatures most days next week
with breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...Another sunny and warm day is in store for Arizona
today with a few high clouds around Sunday.

Beyond that models agree that a low pressure system will deepen
along the west coast and enter southern California Monday morning.
As has been the case lately, moisture will be limited and other than
a small chance for a few thunderstorms in extreme eastern Arizona
into New Mexico, it will be dry. The primary concern is the breezy
conditions that are expected bringing about a threat for local
critical fire weather concerns.

Following that system, temperatures will settle back to average
levels Tuesday and Wednesday before a strong warmup develops late
next week. Likely 100+ high temperatures once again from Tucson
across the lower deserts Friday onward.


.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z
Predominantly clear skies, with passing thin cirrus at times. Light
and variable winds increase near midday SWLY-WLY 8-12 kts with gusts
to 20 kts. Winds then drop below 10 kts after sunset. Aviation
discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


.FIRE WEATHER...Anticipate a fairly quiet weekend on the weather
front as winds remain light with occasional afternoon gusts due to
daytime heating. A developing low pressure system then initiates
strong breezes area-wide Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Due to
persistent dry humidities, isolated spots may approach critical fire
weather conditions. There`s also a slight chance for high-based
thunderstorms over the White Mountains during Monday afternoon.
Winds begin to ease Wednesday, continuing in a generally light
regime through the rest of the forecast.




FIRE WEATHER...Davis/Howlett

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